We'll still be right in this competition if we win this, given that for our remaining games we should be able to call on Carberry (for Adams, or Vince when on international duty), Wheater (for McManus), and Afridi or McLaren (for Berg, Best, Crane or Smith) depending on who we choose.
We might even have Topley for the KO stages in mid August onwards, should we get there.
Kent (h), Sussex (a), Glamorgan (a), Somerset (h) are our remaining four games. Three wins should be enough, especially given that three of those four are occupying the places which we are after. But don't win today, and it's a totally different story.