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The Cheltenham Gold Cup 2019

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by OddDog, Jan 22, 2019.

  1. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Steeplechasing's "Blue Riband" event, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, is run over 3 miles and 2.5 furlongs on the Friday of the Cheltenham festival. There are 22 fences to be jumped during the race which covers just over 2 circuits of the new course.

    To win the Cheltenham Gold Cup a horse needs to find the perfect blend of athleticism, speed and stamina and bring their "A" game to a track whose undulations make this a unique test of a steeplechaser. Whilst there have been a number of multiple winners of the race down the years, Golden Miller's five triumphs between 1932 and 1936 make him the most successful horse in the history of the race. Cottage Rake (1948-50), Arkle (1964-66) and Best Mate (2002-04) were all triple winners and the list of other winner reads like a "who's who" of National Hunt racing - Kauto Star, Denman, Desert Orchid, Dawn Run, L'Escargot, Fort Leney and Mill House to mention but a few.

    The 2019 renewal has received 43 initial entries including 3 of the last 4 winners in Native River, Sizing John and Coneygree. Currently just edging favouritism is last season's RSA winner, Presenting Percy, who has not been seen since last season's festival but is entered in the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle this coming Thursday at Gowran Park. Connections perhaps looking to follow the same path as trodden by Native River last season - just 1 prep run prior to the big event? Just behind Presenting percy in the betting is Native River who has run 2 solid races in the Betfair Chase and King George, finish second at Haydock and third at Kempton. His great rival from last season, Might Bite, has gone way out in the betting after having flopped badly in both the aforementioned races and he seriously needs to bounce back to form. He has had minor corrective wind surgery and will head straight to Cheltenham without a further prep run. If the surgery has worked his current price (generally 16/1 widely available) is huge, but there is certainly more than a little risk attached to him. The new kid on the block in the UK is Clan des Obeaux who fairly sluiced up to win the King George and he is priced around the 9/1 mark. It is possible to take the view that the King George fell into his lap somewhat and he has yet to emerge victorious on any of his 4 visits to Cheltenham, which is a slight worry. Previous winner Thistlecrack ran a very creditable 2nd in the King George and hopefully he will make the line up in March after injury ruled him out of the last 2 renewals. Welsh National winner Elegant Escape and Paul Nicholls' Frodon both get the opportunity to earn a starting place when contesting the Cotswold Chase this weekend and Definitly Red has been given an easier time this season in an attempt to get him fresh to Cheltenham in March.

    As usual there is a strong Irish challenge combining a mix of second season improvers (Presenting Percy, Kemboy, Al Boum Photo) along with more established stayers such as Anibale Fly, Bellshill, Killultagh Vic and Road To Respect. The Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in early February should give us a pointer to some of their chances, with Sizing John having completed the double in 2017.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 22, 2019
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  2. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    I have a special interest to know if they are going to dare to run here to Tous Est Permis.
     
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  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Trainer had this to say about Tout Est Permis :-

    "He wants further and softer ground as it was plenty quick for him. What will happen next, I don't know, but he could well run in the Ryanair. He is improving and is putting on weight and getting stronger all the time.”

    Meade is now inclined to miss next month’s Red Mills Chase at Gowran “as it could empty him out” and favours heading straight to Cheltenham. Although he didn’t exactly rule out the Gold Cup – he’s trained for Gigginstown too long to make such a schoolboy error – he hinted that while the longer race would suit this last-gasp winner, it might be asking too much too soon.

    “While he'd love the Gold Cup trip, he is only six so we'll see,” Meade added. “If the ground was soft maybe the Ryanair; if it wasn't, maybe the other one."


    A promising long term sort but he needs to improve quite a bit in a short space of time. His 157 Official Rating would need to come up a stone just to be in the mix. Surely it would be madness to go for the Gold Cup?

    Long Run won the Gold Cup as a 6YO but he had hosed up in a King George by 12 lengths and earned an official rating of 179 going into the Gold Cup. It still rankles me that Long Run let me down in the Paddy Power Gold Cup when running off 158 previously.

    Surely being patient is the right thing for the horse.

    Presenting Percy is as low as 5/2 for the Gold Cup now. No thanks for me anyway. He was 9/4 for today's race and a quarter a point bigger for Cheltenham is insane to me. He'll surely drift by the day of the race unless there are several defections. With the Cotswold Chase and Irish Gold Cup to come shortly, there is also the chance something else will make a good case for themselves, so I couldn't be taking Presenting Percy myself.
     
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  4. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    I said it for those statements. I was lucky to bet him 14/1 when he won Troytown and he impressed me. Then they tried to find a race for Christmas but with an OR 150 they could not put him in the handicaps because he was going to carry a lot of weight and they didn't to dare to run the Savills Chase. I think the Ryanair with 2m 5f falls short but if ground is soft-heavy it might be good for him. I'm not going to risk it even though that 20/1 is calling me at all hours although if I make a good profit next days I may be released. Maybe The Gold Cup for next year but if by chance he runs this year, and even though I have a double Penhill (8) -Presenting Percy (6), I'll be there.
     
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  5. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    Clearly Paul Nicholls knows the time of day when it comes to NH racing but I was surprised how keen he was to declare Frodon a GC runner after his win today. I just can't see Frodon being good enough to win. I doubt he'd have won today if it had been an extra furlong. I do applaud trainers who aren't afraid to have a go but when he's had a few days to think about it he may yet opt for the Ryanair. If he's to get within hailing distance of Hendo in the trainer's championship the £200k on offer might come in handy too.
     
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  6. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Problem is in jumps racing that if you don’t take your chance you might never get it again. I agree that I don’t think he will be good enough or see the trip out well enough, but given the dangers of the sport, who can blame them for tilting at that windmill?

    I don’t think the horse needs to lead, and if they can sit in behind an early pace then who knows what can happen. If he ran into the first five then they’d be happy I’d suggest.

    Personally I thought it was a cracking run from the second who if he gets heavy ground at the festival, could easily run into a place. Today was very interesting and has added another bit of intrigue to the festival.

    One things for sure, the media will love Briony in the run up to the big race. She’s amazing for the sport and is different gravy to most in the way she handles herself.
     
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  7. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    Yes absolutely. Just before the off in the Cleeve Mick Fitz was at the start. Bryony engaged with him when he asked her a question but Joe Colliver just blanked him. I don't think the viewer got much insight from Mick Fitz's questioning - he asked the 2 at the front of the pack if they were looking to make the running - but it did emphasise just how media friendly she is.
    If Frodon was mine and the trainer told me he thought we had a chance of hitting the frame in the GC or an outstanding chance in the Ryanair I would be looking to get the winners cheque of that little twat O'Leary.
     
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  8. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    I just had another look at the Cotswold Chase. Frodon's jumping was brilliant and he didn't lose any momentum at any fence. He was slightly scruffy at the second but it was hardly a mistake. His jump at the last was spectacular and reminded me of Fondmort's last fence leap a few years back. Elegant Escape on the other hand was sketchy and didn't seem to ever be in a rhythm. There was less than a length between them at the end though Frodon definitely found a bit more at the end. It's all immaterial anyway because that race has a terrible record at finding the GC winner and my money is on a back to back victories for Native River.
     
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  9. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    I think Joe Colliver was more interested in keeping his concentration and in getting it right up top on Sam Spinner having been unshipped on that horse several times already than exchanging sweet nothings with Mick Fitzgerald. :emoticon-0100-smile

    You have to say though there is only one Gold Cup and if you asked the normal man in the street about it they d probably ask you 'what the hell is the Ryanair?' So much more kudos to have a runner in the gold cup which is the blue riband of chasing so you really do have to go for that especially if you have owned racehorses for some time and never had a runner in it. Let's not forget this horse just keeps on giving so I could see him winning it if running on good ground. Not for me but it's not impossible so hence you really do have to go for it.
     
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  10. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    A very taking performance from Bellshill to just edge out Road To Respect in the Irish Gold Cup. I'd expect both to be in the shake-up at Cheltenham if they can take that form forward to Prestbury Park. Road To Respect remains a general 12/1 shot but Bellshill has been cut across the board and is now also around 12s.
     
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  11. Furiousiceman

    Furiousiceman Active Member

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    Difficult to judge them on today in what was basically a match. I thought both seemed to lack fluency at times (particularly RTR who I thought jumped poorly throughout). Wide open year though ( unless Percy is a superstar in waiting), so couldn't be ruled out.
     
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  12. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    as many have alluded to , ground conditions are likely to influence the market closer to the day , PP is ridiculous ante post price , surely those who are serious would have backed him months ago ...... i’m with capt pops if it’s good ground , Definitely Red has had a break this time , no slogging round six weeks before like last year’s cotswold , fresh is best with him , but there are several others with claims depending on conditions.........going to consult the fir cones ......
     
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  13. Furiousiceman

    Furiousiceman Active Member

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    Agree P P is now a ridiculous price but would anybody be surprised if he hacks up? I certainly wouldn't.
     
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  14. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    He won't. Another Carvills Hill job ........................ he doesn't have the experience.
     
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  15. Furiousiceman

    Furiousiceman Active Member

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    I'd normally agree but everything about this horse isn't 'right' but he just keeps winning. Throw in the enormous question marks associated with every other leading contender as well. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
     
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  16. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    I can't have Definitly Red. I convinced myself he had an ew chance last year and that was a 2 horse race after about mile. Native River to double up for me.
     
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  17. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    We will surely get a better idea of the English challengers when Native River and CDO clash this weekend
     
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  18. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    he’d done his effort in the cotswold on heavy going chan , this time he’s been kept fresh ......
     
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  19. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    You maybe right Rudey but I won't be investing this year. I've got a stable full of cliff horses and he's not getting in.
     
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  20. floridaspearl

    floridaspearl Well-Known Member

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    The horses have started shedding their winter coats.spring is just around the corner.
     
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