The Betfred Cesarewitch is run over 2m 2f at Newmarket on ground that will probably be good/firm. There are many very strong trends but i have got the field down to a few rather than 30 odd runners: 3-5yo as a non hurdler or 6yo+ if a hurdler. Carrying NO penalty OR between 87-98. 1-4 LTO in a Class 3 or above. Posted highest or 2nd highest ever rating LTO. Had 12 or fewer flat races. Won over at least 2m is vital. Won over hurdles at Cheltenham is a massive plus. Run in the Northumberland Plate a bonus. 1st 5 in the Ascot Stakes/Shergar Cup Stayers a huge plus. Drawn 1-12 (preferably 1-5) amazing stat considering the race is over 2m 2f. Hold up horse or racing in midfield. Trained by Mr Henderson, Martin or Hobbs. Taking all the above into account i am very, very strong on VEILED as he hits numerous trends and i have backed him many times before, especially over hurdles and the big flat races. Hopefully Mr Fallon will get the leg up and that can only be a plus. Cosimo De Medici from the more than capable Hughie Morrison yard could make them all go off his feather weight at a nice price. For me KEYS requires cut so if the rain comes he will cause Veiled most problems. I am on VEILED at 12s (EW) and 10s (Win) and will do a few RFC and Tricasts as this may not be as tricky as it looks this year. Good luck all who take a chance.
There has been plenty of money for Henderson other horse Sentry Duty and i've been told Mr Fallon rides! Eddie Ahern takes the ride on Veiled, not sure who will have got the choice or whether Mr Henderson would have decided.
I've added major Races to the Horse Racing Forum Index. At present it just has a sub heading of "Trends" which takes you to the Major Races Trends Index. At present that just points to here but more could be added. At some point I'll have a look for some earlier ones to add but new ones will be incorporated as soon as I spot them. I think I'll add a link to a list of major races.
In my opinion this heat can be summed up in 2, I say 2, words - Mr Henderson. The forum’s favourite trainer knows how to plot one up for this race having twice trained the winner since 2003. In Veiled and Sentry Duty his ‘hand’ looks incredibly strong and as I have said before on the old forum I would certainly envisage the winner coming from this pair. In fact I plan to have a ‘reverse exacta’ on the duo in search of some lucrative returns. Although once again I request that my regular readers don’t join in this plunge as by doing so they will reduce my Tote dividend. Mr Henderson decided ages ago re who rode what horse. Eddie Ahern won the Ascot Stakes on Veiled so keeps the ride whilst ’King’ Kieren has been Sentry Duty’s regular pilot this summer.
only reason why mr hendersons horses are being favoured is because of his good record in the race in previous races. Saying that I havent really had a chance to have a look yet at the card, but veiled does look like the one to be on in the race but we will wait and see. I just cant wait for the jump season to start (i know this is not a jump race, but it means its close) plus I am going to cheltenham next weekend
Sentry Duty is an Autumn horse and runs well when fresh. He ran a good race last year and must have a good chance with Fallon on board. However, I think the booking of Frankie Dettori for Jamie Osborne's Never Can Tell is very significant. As far as I know, he's not ridden for him before, and the horse is consistent and improving. Rainforest Magic is another interesting horse from Dermot Weld- he knows what it takes to win this marathon. Recommended bet: Never Can Tell @ 25/1 Each Way. PS.Does anyone else get the impression from Sir Barney that this is a two horse race between Sentry Duty and Veiled? I didn't know he liked Henderson's horses so much!
Tam, a Mr Henderson 1-2 could be a real ‘retirement’ bet if it comes up. Am already dreaming of making my way to the old ‘payout window’ if that scenario becomes a reality! The key stats highlighted by the current edition of 'The Weekender' incidentally are that 8 out of the last 12 winners had 4 runs or less that term and that 7 out of the last 10 winners were aged 5+. A lot of runners don’t tick those ‘boxes’ but am delighted to see that Mr Henderson’s ‘dynamic duo’ do.
Barney, don't mind me. I love your affection for NH and the refreshing way you support him. I happen to think he and BG are a great combination.
I have it on extremely good authority that Sentry Duty is Mr Hendersons favoured horse for this race now! For whatever reason Mr Fallon has deserted him in favour of Jamie Osbornes runner but they still believe he will beat Veiled easily. There will be a major rush once the word is out
‘King’ Kieren hasn’t deserted Sentry Duty in the slightest he has had no say in the matter. He has simply been ‘claimed’ by Luca Cumani (further to the terms of their agreement) to ride Kazbow in the race who they have now decided to run in the heat. How Jamie Osbourne fits into the tale I haven’t got a clue! I don’t know where your invisible friend (sorry I mean ‘contact’ got this rubbish from.
I meant Cumani not Osborne! Henderson had clearly stated that Fallon had agreed to ride Sentry Duty as well you know. I'm sure Fallon new Mr Cumani would claim him but that's the way he likes to do business, probably high again and saying 'yes' to everything I don't have contacts i have people in the know who have proven track records on this and previous forums
The backtracking has started already! Mr Henderson provisionally booked ‘King’ Kieren he could never make it formal when Mr Cumani had a possible runner and wouldn’t have done anyway until the 48 hour stage. A late decision was made to run Kazbow and ‘King’ Kieren did what he was contractually obliged to do – namely ride Kazbow. No more strange than Dettori riding one for Godolphin, Buick for Gosden or Hannagan for Fahey. Why incidentally you feel the need to heavily libel and abuse ‘King’ Kieren and make terrible accusations about him is beyond me. I’m sure the above ‘invisible friend’ (sorry person ‘in the know’ as he is now to be known) knew this ages ago but for the rest of us mere mortals Mr Henderson has now booked Johnny Murtagh to ride Sentry Duty. Is he incidentally the same ‘invisible friend’ (apologies again, I meant person ‘in the know’ who was so adamant that Weird Al would run in the Ryanair Chase rather than the CGC. Has he perhaps moved down South where he now apparently has the ear of both Mr Henderson and Tom Symonds?!? Handy, or co-incidentally, on the same day as the latter has his first runners.
Keys for me. I've turned a new leaf on slagging off trainers and jockeys - some people get very offended by it. Including some who actually do it themselves funnily enough. Barney - how's the new job?
Never Can Tell is one I really like and Dr Koukash was very buoyant about this one being overpriced However my tip simply has to be RAINFOREST MAGIC 14/1 for Dermot Weld. Unexposed and is very likely to get the trip- how many can you say that about? Has improved the further its gone and has now also got itself a handicap hurdle win. It looks a really progressive type. It won a handicap very authoritavely in Ireland last time on the flat off a mark of 73. Its up 14lb now, which is huge. But its going the right way over both codes, will stay well and Dermot Weld doesn't waste trips for the fun of it. I should imagine this has been in mind for some time. 8-9 is not a bad weight.
Chippy, its rather petering away to nothing unfortunately. Weâve given a wedge of postgraduate funding to a Welsh University and it was originally anticipated that theyâd need a lot of assistance and help in the early days. And it was looking like a secondment out for 2-3 days a week. However, they have grasped everything really quickly and need next to no guidance now. It may be dragged out for a day a week until Christmas (although havenât been there at all this week but got 2 days there next week to compensate) but no more as unusually for Uniâs these days this one is well on the ball. Good money for both Beyond and Sentry Duty in the Ces. Though amazingly those bookie chappies are now shouting â12/1 the fieldâ! Who will go off favorite??? At least half a dozen contenders at the moment.
As that wise old sage, dear old GDC, points out the draw is a massive factor in the race. The numbers have now been reversed and judging on the previous 10 runnings only twice in the past 10 years has the winner been drawn higher than 12, I say 12. Amazing stat for a well over 30+ heat. Mr Henderson has received a ‘mixed bag’ as while Sentry Duty gets the plum box of 1, Veiled is less fortunate as she has been allocated 22. Several other fancied horses have also drawn very high so it will be interesting to see how those old bookie chappies react. Could be a completely readjusted market, methinks.
Happy with Sentry Duty draw but saddened with Veiled's! I can see Beyond and Sentry Duty fighting for the favourites role now!
Yep, Beyond really frightens me. Looks very formidable given his draw and weight. Also, the Pipe’s have just got in at the foot of the handicap the ex-Mr Henderson trained Tasheba. I won’t, but could, go on for hours about this horse and if they have rejuvenated him (no way could they have improved him as no-one can better Mr Henderson) he is another very strong ‘feather to their bow’.
