Howdy folks,just wanted to gauge your opinion on the big four races during the upcoming cheltenham festivel.There has been alot of talk of late that Hurricane Fly/Big Bucks/Sizing Europe/Long Run are dead certs to win their respective races. I'm interested in the first three as i cannot see them getting beaten but l'd be nervous about Long Run. I think this is one of the weakest Gold Cup's for years and I'm not to sweet on backing a horse that has already been beaten twice this year.Take into account that he has an amateur jockey on board and is not the soundest of jumpers i cant be having him this time round.I'm thinking of the first three + quevga, a tonne for all four to win. How many of the big four do my fellow posters think will win and do you belive there is any other horses you could categorise as 'banker material'-thanks for your time
Big Bucks should win. It will be a major shock if Dynaste or Oscar Whiskey can find enough but one of them might be able to go as close or closer than Grand Crus. Long Run is a certainty. Grand Crus is the only horse I'd be unsure about in that he's an unknown quantity. HF looks pretty nailed on. We need to see Zarkandar to be sure but HF is a very special horse and looks unlikely to get beat Sizing Europe, imho, is a weak champion and potentially a very weak back to back champion chaser but, crucially, he looks head and shoulders above any other 2mile chaser (non novice). In conclusion I'm inclined to say all will win and if I'd known about the 25s with Will Hill before Sunday I'd have got a few quid on. However it wouldn't surprise me if one gets beat I just can't see any of them getting beat at this stage (I appreciate that does't fully make sense but hopefully you know what I mean!)
I think Voler La Vedette @ 4/1 for the Mares hurdle maybe worth a shout! But it is hard to see past quevega! But Sizing Europe is the only one I worry about! Yes he ran very well yesterday and big zeb is getting on but he will prbly win but he is the weakest! All the rest certainity!
50/1 before the Fly came up last week and was 66s over Christmas ! Biggest nap of the festival doesn't appear on this list......
You should be looking for that sort of price she makes the race Wooly and if she does she'll get put in her place...
It's always dangerous talking of "bankers" at the festival - remember Master Minded and Kauto Star being beaten in recent years? I do however think this year's reigning champs are looking very, very attractive propositions, as much for the lack of opposition as any other reason. My thinking is as follows: 1) Hurricane Fly - quite simply the best hurdler since Istabraq and could go on to achieve as much (or even more) than that great horse did. A superb traveller, fluent hurdler and has lethal acceleration. If Zarkandar doesn't hose up on Saturday I can see HF going 4/6 across the board. 2) Sizing Europe - the fact that he managed to win at Punchestown for the first time on 2 years means he is in great nick and to me he looks to be at the peak of his powers. The horse who could give him most to think about is Somersby but I can only see the same outcome as when they met in the Arkle a couple of years ago. 3) Big Bucks - although the shortest of the lot he does, for me, face the biggest "unknown" challenge in the shape of Oscar Whiskey. The fact that OW missed his prep at Ffos Las won't have helped but we don't know what he might be capable of at 3 miles. I fervently hope that the mighty BB will sweep all before him again though. 4) Long Run - I can't look beyond the big 2 in the Gold Cup and the way Long Run was gaining on KS at Kempton after the last just reinforces the fact he has superior stamina. I have never thought the Gold Cup ideal for Kauto Star as it appears to be right at the edge of his stamina limits, and I fear that, even though KS may be going best of all coming down the hill, the long, withering run up the hill to the finish will allow Long Run's younger legs to get him home again. I put a €9 yankee on the 4 over christmas time at odds of 9/4 (HF), 9/4 (SE), 4/7 (BB) and 5/2 (LR) - I just felt this was safer than the straight accumulator as 1 of the 4 can certainly get beaten. If 2 get beat I could still end up in profit (depends on which 2). I wouldn't be tempted by the accumulator at the current odds though - I guess it is probably inevitable that one of the 4 gets done (hope not though )
We will get another look at Long Run if Newbury goes ahead on sat but i'm convinced he is the weakest of the four.Was also thinking of having a sneaky bet that Big Bucks will not be leading before the last but to finish on top,i think Ruby will go as late as possible,might get 4 or 5s with that one
The question on everyones lips it seems, the big four bankers. Now, assuming they all avoid injury / bad fortune between now and then, I shall provide the answers whether these are BANKERS or not. Read on ladies and gentlemen... 1. Hurricane Fly- YES You've got to love everything about this this horse, he travels, he jumps, he stays and quickens. He relishes any battle put forward to him. The ideal racehorse, possessing everything the equine super star requires. Massively unlikely however that any rival will get near enough him to make him 'battle'. BANKER. WON'T BE BEATEN, MARK MY WORDS. 2. Sizing Europe- BARRING ACCIDENT IN RACE- YES Yes horse is the real deal and I'd agree with those on yesterday's daily thread that questioned yesterday's form as we all know that he's at LEAST A STONE BETTER AT CHELTENHAM! The one small doubt and it's something that looks unlikely to worry him is getting round safely. Lest we forget MOSCOW FLYER, KAUTO STAR AND WELL CHIEF ALL CAME ACROPPER IN THE QUEEN MOTHER WHEN HOT FAVOURITES... Barring any unfortunate accidents however, he'll be a dual winner. 3. Big Bucks- YES Would have a tiny worry if Thousand Stars took him on, as this one has crossed swords with the leading 2 milers and never been disgraced. Proved he can stay 3 miles in France so would be one to 'worry' Big Bucks if he was sent to take him on. However, as with Hurricane Fly, you're going to need to see a once in a lifetime horse to be able to beat Big Bucks. Big Bucks will win, though perhaps made to work harder than most expect. 4. Long Run- NO Two runs this season, two defeats to the great Kauto Star this year hardly mark him out as banker material, albeit I'd still have him as the most likely winner unless Grand Crus lines up. Will relish the extended trip, though jumping frailities and lack of tactical toe may mean many punters are cursing Long Run as the horses that lets the four timer down.
Barring unfortunate incidents I'd agree. Quevega and Hurricane Fly are likely to be the two easiest winners as I really think Big Bucks will have to pull out all the stops against Thousand Stars should he take him on. I expect he will as the one thing we know is he'll never beat the Hurricane...
As posted on the antepost thread I have backed the following already: Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's, Long Run - 33/1 with Paddy Power Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's, Kauto Star - 43.43/1 with Paddy Power And that pretty much tells you all you need to know as to where I stand on this matter. The first three would be my 'bankers' and I have the Gold Cup between Long Run and Kauto Star at this stage. In theory I would be heading into the Gold Cup winning a sizeable chunk on both horses, leaving me with the option of laying off or backing alternative contenders should I feel so inclined. Hurricane Fly - The best 2m hurdler since Istabraq and will be mighty hard to beat in March. Willie Mullins has proven himself a master at getting horses to Cheltenham in tip top shape so I would be confident of a repeat effort on the Tuesday. Ground is of no concern, pace is of no concern, and he will have the best man in the plate in Ruby Walsh. Dangers are hard to come by with the only real threat I can see being Zarkandar, and that is purely because we don't yet know how good he might be. We do know that he will have to be exceptional to beat Hurricane Fly, and that is very unlikely. Sizing Europe - I have viewed him as a Festival banker since the Tingle Creek and have backed him accordingly at 11/4 (with bits at 5/1 too). He loves Cheltenham, thrives on good ground, and is a consistently superb jumper at 2m. He seems to lose his rhythm when tried up in trip but is reliable at his fences over the minimum trip. I am increasingly coming round to the fact that he is a pretty damn good Champion Chaser. He was very exciting over hurdles before going wrong in the Champion Hurdle. I just think he might have taken a while to get over that but now looks better than ever this season. That is in direct contrast to Big Zeb, whose form looks a little shaky for me this season. Finian's Rainbow has been found out at the finish at both Cheltenham in the Arkle, and at Ascot in the Victor Chandler. He might improve but has a tonne to find to get near Sizing Europe. Other credible challengers are thin on the ground and he looks to have an excellent chance. Big Buck's - Unbeaten in 15 since switching to Hurdles and I fully expect that to be 16 in March. The race simply could not have gone any worse for him last year and yet he was still able to win comfortably from Grands Crus, a horse who has shown himself to be more than useful over fences this season. He has a new set of pretenders to beat off but his powers do not appear to be declining. It will take an almighty performance to get him beat and the stronger the pace, the further he wins by. Dai Walters was talking of the secret being to take him on early. That sounds like the worse idea in the history of mankind. If Oscar Whisky takes Big Buck's on early then there can only be one horse who comes out on top, and that is Big Buck's. A slow, muddling pace is his biggest threat but he easily overcame that obstacle last year so see no danger to his crown 12 months on. Long Run - Easily the most vulnerable of the 4 reigning champions and that is purely for the reason that none of the others have a horse anywhere near as good as Kauto Star in opposition. Already he has been defeated twice this season but I still think him just about the most likely winner. I, unlike many, think that Kauto Star is capable of throwing down a serious challenge once again, and will be cheering him home like me life depends upon it once again. I think there is a pretty big gap between these two and the rest of the competition so would be disappointed if it wasn't one of them that emerged triumphant in the biggest race of them all. I would dearly love it to be Kauto Star but Long Run, certainly in financial terms, will do me just fine too. Hurricane Fly - Banker Sizing Europe - Banker Big Buck's - Banker Long Run or Kauto Star - Banker Oh how easy it looks. I am most looking forward to everyone, myself included, having large portions of egg on our faces once the Festival is over. It all looks so straightforward and yet this game has proven time and time again that it is anything but. Cannot wait to see who is right and who is wrong. One thing for certain is that the bookies will take a proper battering if all 4 retain their crowns. There must be a fair few holding 'all 4 to retain their crowns' antepost vouchers. If they all come in it will be a bookies bloodbath.
"i think Ruby will go as late as possible,might get 4 or 5s with that one" Ste, you'll be lucky- I wouldn't give it you!
Tam PP had similar for Big bucks last race,think it was one of their specials at 4/1,they might do it again!!!
I've taken this bet (or did before saturday, at 28-1). I think it's absolutely great value. Long Run seems the biggest risk, but with any luck Grands Crus & Captain Chris (with luck for the bet that is, obviously I don't wish them any harm or anything!) won't go and then it really does look like Long Run vs Kauto Star. I just wish I'd backed the HF/SE/BB/KS option as well as the straight four option when I took the first bet.
Still think Cheltenham will throw up some surprises and magic performances from forgotten horses. Cant be having it being as simple as the Big 4 strolling home. Big Bucks & Hurricane Fly for me look the two to prove themselves as true champions. I think there will be a brand new Champion Chaser this season- there is a massive performance lurking in there somewhere. I'll hold that thought for a bit as I have not decided on who might be the one to produce it. It's not a logical thing- on this seasons form there is only one winner, but to be honest he hasn't had anyone take him on up front the last twice. I think Rubi Light showed you how to approach the Sizing Europe debate- make him have to pass you, because it is a nightmare trying to pass him. I'll come back to you on this though Long Run has it all in his favour for Cheltenham so there are no excuses. I wonder if we will see a different tactic from Kauto Star this season- a more patient ride and then let him begin to quicken with a mile or so to go. Long Run must improve his jumping accuracy. I heard a solid debate about QueleEsprit running in the Gold Cup this year- is he entered? If so, any thoughts?
Using the law of averages it’s probably a fair shout to say that at least one of the 4 won’t make it to Cheltenham for one reason or another. Crickey, how those bookie chappies must love bets like these as the odds are probably in their favour re all the horses turning up let alone winning! If, and its a big if, Hurricane Fly, Big Bucks, Long Run and Sizing Europe do all make it I would Mr Henderson’s Long Run and Big Bucks the most likely (although the words ‘Featherbed Lane’ do continually smake me in the chops whenever I think about the World Hurdle). The CGC is in effect a 2 horse contest as nothing is emerging that looks capable of getting within a dozen lengths of Kauto and Mr Henderson’s champion. Over the extended distance of 26.5 furlongs and up that hill Long Run should, in my opinion, have far too much for Kauto. Big Bucks should oblige with ease unless something emerges that is improving ridiculously quickly (the ‘old brigade’ won’t put up much resistance as afterall he’s beaten them time after time after time after time...). Featherbed Lane is such an animal, methinks. I think the other 2 are poor value and wouldn’t want to get involved at current prices. Hurricane Fly I still think is very vulnerable to one of Mr Henderson’s squad whilst the Champion Chase looks a puzzling contest and it really wouldn’t surprise me if a rapidly improving sort like Hold Fast came out of the pack to devour those at the top of the betting. They look very vulnerable to me and I can see why Mr Nicholls is considering opposing them with a novice.
