Britian's richest handicap hurdle is on the horizon once again and Saturday's race at Newbury has attracted 16 runners with the usual mix of seasoned handicappers and unexposed novices. The going is currently good-soft, soft in places but with a dry week forecast, we will likely have predominately good-soft ground come race day.
Despite the money on offer, the race has not been popular with Irish trainers and the last Irish-trained winner was Essex in 2005. This year we don't have a single runner coming over the Irish Sea (proximity to Leopardstown and Cheltenham festivals?).
The market is currently headed by three of the aforementioned unexposed novices in JPR One, Knappers Hill and Bloomfield Burg. JPR One is rated 129 but I am just not convinced by the level of form he has achieved and I can't see him getting competitve here. Bloomfield Burg is rated 134 but I get the feeling he likes to boss inferior rivals but doesn't have the stomach for a fight - witness his two defeats over hurdles where he seemed to down tools when asked to fight. Not for me in a Betfair Hurdle. Which leaves us with Knappers Hill who, yard form aside, looks at have an outstanding chance. His 3rd in the Kennel Gate has been franked and a rating of 135 for that performance looks lenient indeed. I Like To Move It was 11 lengths behind Knappers Hill in that race (conceding 7lbs) so also looks well treated off 138, especially on drying ground.
Soaring Glory took this off 133 last season and started this season with a very good victory at Ascot off 143. He has been by no means disgraced in 2 runs thereafter, including 3rd in a weak looking Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, and goes here off a mark of 147. That means he carries top weight but he makes by far the most appeal of the 4 horses at the top of the weights - he had Tritonic well held at Kempton, the ground has gone against Metier and I just get the feeling the track doesn't suit Glory and Fortune (has struggled here twice in the past).
Boothill reverts back to hurdles after a poor chase debut and could go close if repeating his Ascot run (beaten 3 lengths by Soaring Glory and has a 4lbs pull here) - but that is a big if for me, especially after his lengthy absence last year. First Street is up 9lbs for winning at Kempton and looks high enough in the weights for now - the trainer also seems unsure of his best trip. Jetoile got closest to Constitution Hill at Sandown but would surely prefer more testing ground and Fifty Ball, who finished 2nd in this off the same mark last year, has an abortive chase campaign to overcome.
Given the poor Nicholls yard form, I am passing over Knappers Hill and my selection is I Like To Move It. His trainer has won 2 of the last 5 renewals and, with the ground hopefully drying out all the time, I think this likeable novice can get back to winning ways.
Despite the money on offer, the race has not been popular with Irish trainers and the last Irish-trained winner was Essex in 2005. This year we don't have a single runner coming over the Irish Sea (proximity to Leopardstown and Cheltenham festivals?).
The market is currently headed by three of the aforementioned unexposed novices in JPR One, Knappers Hill and Bloomfield Burg. JPR One is rated 129 but I am just not convinced by the level of form he has achieved and I can't see him getting competitve here. Bloomfield Burg is rated 134 but I get the feeling he likes to boss inferior rivals but doesn't have the stomach for a fight - witness his two defeats over hurdles where he seemed to down tools when asked to fight. Not for me in a Betfair Hurdle. Which leaves us with Knappers Hill who, yard form aside, looks at have an outstanding chance. His 3rd in the Kennel Gate has been franked and a rating of 135 for that performance looks lenient indeed. I Like To Move It was 11 lengths behind Knappers Hill in that race (conceding 7lbs) so also looks well treated off 138, especially on drying ground.
Soaring Glory took this off 133 last season and started this season with a very good victory at Ascot off 143. He has been by no means disgraced in 2 runs thereafter, including 3rd in a weak looking Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, and goes here off a mark of 147. That means he carries top weight but he makes by far the most appeal of the 4 horses at the top of the weights - he had Tritonic well held at Kempton, the ground has gone against Metier and I just get the feeling the track doesn't suit Glory and Fortune (has struggled here twice in the past).
Boothill reverts back to hurdles after a poor chase debut and could go close if repeating his Ascot run (beaten 3 lengths by Soaring Glory and has a 4lbs pull here) - but that is a big if for me, especially after his lengthy absence last year. First Street is up 9lbs for winning at Kempton and looks high enough in the weights for now - the trainer also seems unsure of his best trip. Jetoile got closest to Constitution Hill at Sandown but would surely prefer more testing ground and Fifty Ball, who finished 2nd in this off the same mark last year, has an abortive chase campaign to overcome.
Given the poor Nicholls yard form, I am passing over Knappers Hill and my selection is I Like To Move It. His trainer has won 2 of the last 5 renewals and, with the ground hopefully drying out all the time, I think this likeable novice can get back to winning ways.
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