This year's running of the race formerly known as the Tote Gold Trophy is this coming Saturday, 9th Feb, and is as competitive as ever. Here the current prices (B365): My Tent Or Yours - 7/2 Cotton Mill - 8/1 Pearl Swan / Cash And Go - 9/1 Ronaldo Des Mottes / Cause Of Causes - 10/1 Swing Bowler - 12/1 Claret Cloak / Dark Lover / Court Minstrel / Grumeti - 14/1 16/1 Bar Very interested to hear peoples thoughts on this race because I firmly belive SWING BOWLER is absolutely thrown in off a mark of 134 and Timmy Murphy is already a regular sauna visitor trying to get down to 10st 1lb. This feels very much like a Pipe / David Johnson plot but I must say I think the mare has an outstanding chance. I've backed her on all 5 career starts to date and she has always looked like she could live up to her breeding, but her performance last time out at Musselburgh (in a real bog it should be added) just oozed quality and class and she remains totally unexposed. She is upped 11lbs for that victory but I'm convinced she has much more to offer and could be a very, very good mare. I've taken some 14/1 each-way tonight (not available on oddschecker btw, I use an online bookmaker www.racebets.com and they still offer 14s - see here) as I think she could start clear second favourite behind the Henderson hot-pot. What are your thoughts on the race?
Nudge-nudge, wink-wink, dem Pipes With my newly-vested powers I have added this to the Major NH Races 2013 Thread
I really like DARK LOVER. I think the Cheltenham form has been one of the standards of the season as far as handicaps go. The boy Walsh prefers Pearl Swan but what does he know. It's a cracking renewal and uber competitive, the price for the favourite is ridiculous!
Strongly fancy Pearl Swan 10/1 for this myself and think a mark of 146 is potentially very lenient. MTOY is a crazy price in my opinion when you take into account he is a Juvenile hurdler taking on far more experienced and developed opposition. You'll need to be miles ahead of the handicapper to land this but I certainly think this unexposed fella could just be that.
Always felt this race may be a stepping stone to the festival for Pearl Swan ROTO .......................... having said that, it was the same for Zarkandar last season
It definitely is Oddy but I think Nicholls wants to know if he has a horse capable of running in the Cheltenham Hurdle on his hands. If he can't win off a mark of 146, then there isn't much point in running him (unless in a pacemaker role)
Im really keen on Cotton Mill, had a nice Ew on him last festival and obviously given what happened who knows how close he could have got to Simonsig. His mark doesnt look to bad and my only real concern is how the long break has affected him and whether they will push too hard with Cheltenham only around the corner. I reckon even with the break he is a class above most of these and will be having a decent EW bet on him.
For me Cotton Mill 10/1 would be my fancy, and a strong one if I could guarantee the ground were to be not too testing. Dry weather between now and Saturday would help his cause. Pricewise has put him up for the Champion Hurdle, but I see that as a bridge too far. You have a novice hurdler who pulls like a train as the favourite, and then you have to consider formlines: Triumph 2012 form of Pearl Swan. Neptune 2012 form of Cotton Mill. Last year saw Zarkandar win off 11 stone 1 and remember he was a good winner of a good Triumph that contained the likes of Grandouet and Unaccompanied, so his form has always had a solid look to it with himself and Grandouet in particular looking strong Champion Hurdle candidates since. Last years Triumph looked below that standard however, with Pearl Swan, Grumeti, and Countrywide Flame all there or thereabouts the same level, and Countrywide Flame looks readily held against the top Champion contenders this season. The Neptune form looks very good. SIMONSIG has looked every inch a top chaser in the making and MONKSLAND looks set to make a bold enough bid for the World Hurdle in March. Cotton Mill was still going well when leading 3 out before ducking at one and although I think Simonsig and Monksland would have gone past him, he would have been a good 3rd or 4th and that over a trip which I think might have stretched him. (He was bang there at Aintree before 3m found him out), so I think a truly run 2m handicap is right up his street. He runs off 10st 10 which looks more than lenient given the excellent Neptune form and therefore he can take this handicap at the minimum trip before going on to contest a Champion hurdle, where he will find one or two that bit too hot for him. This is not a vintage field however and providing the ground is not heavy or testing come Saturday, he must go very close.
Has anyone noticed the 3 horses currently entered in the opening race at Newbury? Chatterbox vs Puffin Billy vs River Maigue. Hopefully all 3 declare and should be a very fascinating race and prices being shattered in the novice hurdles at the festival.
I am really looking forward to this race. I think Grumeti could run a big race here. The Triumph form is rock solid, in a big field like this I am sure he can be covered up and brought late. Alan King reports him to be in good form at home and he goes well fresh. Improved around 10lbs on the flat and if he can bring that improvement over hurdles then he will have a great chance here. Had a spin in a piece of work at Kempton last weekend that should have sharpened him up. The one I fear is Pearl Swan, sharpened up with a recent run in a jumpers bumper. There was nothing to separate him and Grumeti in the Triumph Trial at Cheltenham with Pearl Swan losing the race in the stewards room. He fell when 7th in the Triumph at the last when staying on for pressure and I am sure there wouldn't have been much between them again. Getting a useful 7lbs and with race fitness on his side he rates as a big danger to me. I have just about talked myself around to Pearl Swan . However I will stick with Grumeti here. Currently 16/1 with Skybet which is a huge price, hopefully he will take this before going on to run a big race in the Champion Hurdle. Cannot see why MTOY is so short.
I really hope Chatterbox gets outpaced before sticking on so they send him to the Neptune..... nothing to do with my AP Bets
Surely the form of the Ferguson yard has to be a worry for you fans of Cotton Mill? Exemplified by New Years Eve getting beaten yesterday. Only Bordoni has won of his last 14 runners. Grumeti has a clear chance BUT is this a prep for the festival and will he like the hurly-burly of a big-field handicap? Also I agree with BG regarding Pearl Swan - IF he has progressed as much as Grumeti obviously has.
