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The 2025 Champion Hurdle

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by OddDog, Nov 20, 2024.

  1. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    The 2025 Champion Hurdle will take place on Tuesday the 11th of March. The Grade 1 event is open to 4-year-olds and older and is run over 2 miles and 110 yards of the old course with 8 flights of hurdles to be jumped. As its title suggests, the Champion Hurdle is the most prestigious hurdling event in the National Hunt calendar. Its list of winners features many of the most highly acclaimed hurdlers in the sport's history, and several of these, such as National Spirit, Istabraq, Hatton's Grace, Persian War and Lanzarote, have had races named in their honour. There have been five triple winners of the race – Hatton’s Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War, See You Then and Istabraq – and multiple dual winners such as Night Nurse, Monksfield, Bula and more recently Hurricane Fly, Buveur d’Air and Honeysuckle. The most successful trainer in the race is Nicky Henderson with a staggering 9 winners (for context, Willie Mullins “only” has 5).

    As of today, November 20th, the market looks like this (Bet365 prices from Oddschecker):

    Lossiemouth 11/4
    Constitution Hill 3/1
    State Man 7/2
    Ballyburn 10/1
    Mystical Power 12/1
    Brighterdaysahead 12/1
    Burdett Road, Kargese 33/1
    Absurde 40/1
    Bar 66/1

    (Sir Gino available at 12/1 with Paddy Power but not quoted by Bet365)

    The market suffered a dramatic shake-up over the last 24 hours after a racecourse gallop for Constitution Hill at Newbury failed to impress the watchers. Nicky Henderson’s son of Blue Bresil tracked stablemate Sir Gino into the straight on a tight rein and draw alongside at the 2 pole. But when Nico de Boinville asked him to quicken past Sir Gino (who's rider was motionless) there was no response, no acceleration. Nico said he had a huge blow and both he and trainer Henderson put it down to lack of race fitness but it surely points to him not being anywhere near his best and suddenly the Fighting Fifth on Saturday week has become more than just a penalty kick for Constitution Hill.

    Sir Gino is going novice chasing and has an entry at Kempton next Monday – but the alarm bells will be ringing for Constitution Hill if he is pulled out of that. He absolutely routed Sunday’s Greatwood Hurdle winner Burdett Road last season and, but for injury, would surely have won the Triumph Hurdle. It is often difficult for 5 year-olds in open company but the likes of Katchit and Espoir d’Allen have shown that 5 year olds do win Champion Hurdles and I think there are 2 other reasons for Sir Gino going chasing – firstly he looks all over a chaser and secondly his owner, Joe Donnelly, has the reigning champion State Man. Of the first 3 in the market I think State Man's chances are being somewhat overlooked. He is a Grade 1 winning machine and after falling at Leopardstown on his yard debut 3 years ago he has won 12 out of 13 (10 at Grade 1 level). Whilst he was comprehensively beaten by Constitution Hill in the 2023 Champion Hurdle, connections feel he wasn’t at his best that day and there has to be significant doubt as to whether we will ever see Constitution Hill in that form again. State Man goes in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown this coming Saturday and it will be a major surprise if he is beaten. He just rocks up and gets the job done.

    Also entered in the Morgiana is the current favourite for the Champion Hurdle, the mare Lossiemouth. She is 9 from 10 and ought to be 10 from 10 having been unlucky in running during her only defeat to Gala Marceau. Having gained revenge on that rival in the 2023 Triumph Hurdle and the Champion 4YO hurdle at Punchestown, she made a belated reappearance last season in the International Hurdle on trials day in January. She was visually impressive that day, cruising up the hill on the bridle and duly followed up in Championship races against her own sex at the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals. I have significant reservations about her heading the market – for me she has yet to face a true Grade 1 performer and, even with the 7lb mares allowance, she still has a fair chunk to find with State Man. It will be very interesting to see whether she does run in the Morgiana but I can see Willie keeping her away from State Man and maybe going for the Hatton’s Grace.

    Next in the market are another 2 Mullins stars – Ballyburn and Mystical Power. Ballyburn is entered in the Morgiana on Saturday but he is also entered in the Beginners Chase on the card at 12.30 and that seems his more likely destination at this time. Ronnie Bartlett has always been more of a Gold Cup man than a Champion Hurdle man and I don’t see any reason for that to change with Ballyburn. Mystical Power is entered in the Fighting Fifth and looks likely to come across and test Constitution Hill’s mettle. Despite Stade Steel being beaten over fences we don’t really know the value of last season’s novice form (Firefox won at Down Royal but was hardly explosive) and his price for the Champion Hurdle seems more based on breeding and potential rather than bare form.

    Of more interest at this stage is Gordon Elliott’s Brighterdaysahead. She was backed as if defeat was out of the question in the Mares Novice Hurdle at the festival, only to be chinned by Golden Ace (entered in the Ascot Hurdle this Saturday – more of her later). Brighterdaysahead then won a weak looking Grade 1 at Aintree over 2m4f (which shows she stays) before easily landing a Grade 3 at Down Royal on seasonal debut. She seems to be the apple of Elliott’s eye and he is already targeting a tilt at the Champion Hurdle with her. Whilst the 12s on offer with Bet365 feels a bit skinny she is freely available at 16/1 with other firms and I think that is OK.

    We then get into the handicappers with Burdett Road and Absurde available at fancy odds and a number of horses who filled the places in last year’s best novice races. One who does look overpriced is Golden Ace at 66/1 – she followed up her festival win by returning to Cheltenham and taking a listed mare’s novice hurdle and her current rating of 144 may seriously underestimate her ability. She hasn't really come off the bridle yet.

    In summary, I truly hope Constitution Hill can get back to his devastating best but State Man 7/2 looks the percentage and value call at the moment. The next 10 days or so will tell us an awful lot more with many of the leading protagonists making their seasonal debut. Part of me also hopes that Sir Gino stays over hurdles as I think he is an absolute monster but I think that is unlikely and he should certainly be a monster over the bigger obstacles too.

    Who do you fancy at this stage, and why?
     
    #1
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2024
  2. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Constitution Hill lame and won’t run at Newcastle :(

    Now 5/1 for the Champion Hurdle with Ladbrokes
     
    #2
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2024
  3. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    The odds on getting Connie Hill to Cheltenham will be huge they way things are going...!!!
     
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  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I think State Man will be odds on for the Champion Hurdle come Saturday evening after beating Lossiemouth. Amazed you can still get 11/4 about him.

    I can't see Constitution Hill running again.
     
    #4
  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Wait for Lossie non runner this weekend
     
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  6. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    I’m bored of this nonsense already. Still we have this new made for TV jockey championship to look forward to courtesy of Paddy Power <doh>
     
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  7. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Gwan the Bowens
     
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  8. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    You think so? I think they want to test them against each other early in the season to see if the mare can live with State Man. If not (as I guess) they can then focus on the mares hurdle with her. But I could be wrong of course.
     
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  9. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    What we need is a Shergar Cup type contest over the jumps .........................

    I'll get my coat
     
    #9
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  10. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    not that jumps racing is predictable
     
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  11. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Jeez - spot on Nass. I wonder what reason will be given?
     
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  12. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    A rather burly looking State Man easily out-battled by Brighterdaysahead in the Morgiana.

    Without running Lossiemouth hardens to 5/2 fav for the Champion Hurdle, State Man 4/1, Constitution Hill 5/1, Sir Gino 7/1 and Brighterdaysahead 8/1.

    Sir Gino not declared for Kempton on Monday so I assume he is going to Newcastle for the Fighting Fifth.
     
    #12
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2024
  13. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Quite surprising that Golden Ace is still available at 66/1 for the Champion Hurdle whereas Brighterdaysahead is as short as 4/1. Let's see how Golden Ace goes at Ascot in a few minutes but I wish I could get a slice of that 66/1 right now.
     
    #13
  14. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Golden Ace beaten fair and square at Ascot
     
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  15. TIGERSCAVE

    TIGERSCAVE Well-Known Member

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    I'm told by a pal in Ireland, don't be surprised to see Marine Nationale reverting to hurdles...
     
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  16. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Interesting <ok>
     
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  17. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Confirmed that Sir Gino goes to Newcastle. Wouldn't it be ironic if he got beat?
     
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  18. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I wonder whether the French might fancy a crack with this lad?

     
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  19. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    My goodness, very very impressive! Hope they let him take his chance in the Champion Hurdle. <ok>
     
    #19
  20. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Plan B was originally to turn this horse attentions to the Flat (after the DRF debacle). So is this plan B.01 or Plan C?!? You can get 40's re MN and the '25 Champion Hurdle.

    I guess the Seven Barrows question re the '25 Champion Hurdle is when will Sir Gino be available at shorter odds than Constitution Hill?!? Answers on a postcard please to the usual address...
     
    #20

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