The Arkle Challenge Trophy (or simply "The Arkle" as it is more commonly known) is the 2 mile championship race for novice chasers and is run on the Tuesday of the festival over 2 miles on the old course, with 13 fences to be jumped. The race is named in memory of the great Arkle, whose statue can be seen at the course: please log in to view this image As the race is for novices, there have been no multiple winners, but some of the greatest chasers in the history of the sport have lifted this coveted prize - Altior, Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe, Moscow Flyer, Pendil, Flyingbolt and Fortria to name but a few. The most successful jockeys in the race are Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty with 4 wins apiece, and the most successful trainer is Nicky Henderson with 6 wins. Whilst the race demands speed and accurate jumping from young novices, it has also thrown up some notable stayers such as Tidal Bay, My Way de Solzen and Alverton. With the introduction of the JLT Novices Chase over 2m5f, ante post punters are often left wondering whether their fancy will head to the Arkle or the longer race, so the market can be quite fluid until final targets are clarified. The 2019 renewal has received an initial entry of 31 and the current favourite is Joseph O'Brien's Le Richebourg, who took his chase record to 4 wins from 5 starts with a dominant display in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown and is a general 4/1 shot. Next best is Kayley Woollacott's Lalor at around the 5/1 mark (there wouldn't be a dry eye in the house if he were to prevail) followed by Kalashnikov, Dynamite Dollars and Cilaos Emery around the 7/1 mark. We then have a very interesting trio (for different reasons) in Getabird, Paloma Blue and Defi Du Seuil - all of whom I would have as potential winners and shorter in the market) at around the 14/1 mark. Probably best waiting until the day of the race if not already invested in the market and to be honest, if we look at the last 4 winners (Un de Sceaux, Douvan, Altior and Footpad) this does already feel like a sub-standard renewal. But who knows, perhaps a superstar will emerge.
Significant shake-up in the betting today as Mick Channon's Glen Forsa slammed Kalashnikov in the rearranged Kingmaker at Sandown. Kalashnikov out to a general 16/1 whereas Glen Forsa is available at 8/1 NRNB with SkyBet. Le Richebourg, Cilaos Emery and Lalor have all contracted after Kalashnikov's defeat.
After today's forefeit stage there are 24 left in the Arkle. No notable withdrawals, although Willie Mullins stated today that Cilaos Emery had pulled a muscle while schooling and is doubtful for the Arkle.
From ATR: Willie Mullins has raised a doubt about his Racing Post Arkle hopeful Cilaos Emery making it to the Cheltenham Festival. The seven-year-old, impressive on his only start over fences to date, subsequently pulled a muscle when schooling. As a result, Mullins predicts the next seven days will have a huge bearing over whether he makes it to Cheltenham or not. “He pulled a muscle schooling in Navan the other day. That’s why you didn’t see him this morning,” Mullins told assembled press at his yard. “We’ll have to wait and see how he’s going to come out of it. If he doesn’t come out of it in the next seven days, then I think we might have to draw stumps for Cheltenham. “That’s a disappointment, but when you school them you take your chance.”
From RP: "Unfortunately we schooled Cilaos Emery at Navan on Sunday and what we thought was a pulled muscle turned out to be a ligament problem. He won't be travelling."
Big shake-up in the market this morning with the sad news that Le Richebourg is injured and will miss the rest of the season. All of a sudden Lalor is 3/1 favourite with Glen Forsa next best at 5/1 with Defi Du Seuil and 10/1 bar bringing in the likes of Duc Des Genievres and Kalashnikov.
Very disappointing as obviously had a massive chance and sorry to hear a few of you are out of pocket. I wonder if Defi Du Seuil will be rerouted to here now? I do find it quite intriguing though, that so many on here have the habit of doing ante post betting for Cheltenham and yet every year there are so many posts of 'this ante post bet sunk, that ante post bet sunk'. I just don't understand the logic, as you have no idea of the opposition in most of the races or any idea what the ground will be. All you are trying to achieve is a bigger payout but the odds are massively stacked against you as it is so competitive. The best chance of getting the winner is to place a bet when final declarations are made for race. If I looked back on the posts put up on here over the years regarding Cheltenham, there have been so many ante post bets sunk even before we hear the 'famous roar' on the Tuesday. You might as well stand on the top of a bridge and chuck £20 quid notes over.... I guess its easy to get sucked in, all the excitement and build up but you are down even before the first race starts. Not for me - my first bet will be Tuesday morning around 9/10am. I am sure there will be more ante post bets in the bin before racing gets started...
You win some and lose some with ante-post bets. It's all about hitting the right horse. Let's take Sir Erec for example. If you had fancied him at the start for The Triumph Hurdle, you could be sitting on 25/1 now. As it is, the best price is now 5/4 for O'Brien's classy Flat horse. If you are waiting until the day of the race to bet, it could pan out that Sir Erec is a shade of odds-on, so it makes it tough to pick one against him with any confidence, so unless you like lumping on at short odds, you are faced with not bothering at all, or scratching around for the mythical "Each-Way" value. I don't mind not getting a run for my money. I would rather shove a fiver on something at better odds than risk a bigger bet and take shorter odds. If you had/have Sir Erec at 25/1, it more than covers plenty losing bets to the same stake and usually it's pretty much odds on they will lose anyway if you are betting on the day. In this instance I did Lalor at 7/1 and he's 3/1 now. It's well odds-on that he will lose but if he does then I lose less than if I had waited to the day of the race. That's assuming he turns up because sometimes fate intervenes. Al Dancer is another example of getting in early on the correct horse. Originally 33/1, he is generally 11/4 now and the opportunity was there to get on at a massive value price. It's just the nature of the game that the bigger odds bring bigger risks but if you can hit just one at the right price it more or less pays for your Festival bets and any other winners are the gravy on top.
I kind of get what you are saying Grendel but for its not for me - just not worth the risk. I expect to ALWAYS get some sort of run for my money and I like to know the opposition and ground to help assess the risk of the bet. It seems that some will wack a loads of ante-post bets on, lets say if you put a tenner on each of10 ante post bets that £100.00.. £90 of that might be down the pan before any racings started. You might get one run for your money and that finishes out the frame. Lalor might be bigger on the day and Al Dancer will go off bigger than 11/4. I find the best prices are available between 9am to 11am on the day as the bookies fight for your business....
You end up risking more at prices like 11/4 than double figure prices though, to make it worthwhile. There is a definite balance to be found. In general, I'd prefer to have two bets at £15 e/w on 33/1 and 25/1 shots in October than I would have £60 on Lalor to win on the day. If neither make it, so be it...but I have more chance of a profitable festival at 20/1 plus bets than I would backing favourites or single figured priced horses on the day (which would be where plenty of bets would be) The years Arkle as an example, I have £15 e/w on Lalor at 33/1 - and £20 e/w on Le Richebourg at 18/1. I'd have no regrets if neither made it, and of course I was wounded today with LR being ruled out... but I suppose that is the personal preference you're talking about and I have taken it on the chin as part of the fun/build up/battle with the bookmakers. This race [Arkle] is actually one of my worst for the week, as I had Draconien and Cilaos Emery as my biggest bets so I'm starting quite behind, and have nothing on Defi Du Seuil or Glen Forsa. Last years Arkle though, using the same approach was a superb race - with a 5 runner field running at 25/1, 16/1 100/1, 20/1 and 100/1 - I personally would never go back to the approach of just backing one on the day. It's effectivly too hard to find any value, especially when I know what price they would have been, which races they've been declared for and so on, through the year. There will always be some last minute switches but overall it's a skill in finding the target. Does take a helluva lot of time though, and my approach certainly wouldn't be for all! Beating the SP for every horse is the starting point, and during the season really homing in on ones you fancy and building the race (and sometimes week) around them. All in my ever so humble opinion
Fair enough Kevloaf -each to their own. Based on what you 've said - in this race alone you are considerably down. Definitely some horses are ridiculously priced at this time in some of the ante post markets but will drift on the day. There will be the chance of some big priced winners across the 4 days even without betting ante post, especially in the handicaps. You will know what the opposition is, weight allotted, jockey and the ground conditions. My rule is I always insist there should be a run for my hard earned and accept nothing less. .I fancy Defi do seuil for this race if he is rerouted and there is a bit of cut in the ground.
The arkle is developing in to an interesting race. Last year there were only 5 runners in it and this year looks like a bigger field will compete in it as I guess there is no stand out contender now.. Clondaw Castle who was going for the Close Brothers race is being supplemented for this. Interesting. Read in to that what you will....
