I really like NIGHT OF THUNDER for this and have backed him at 20-1. How he was three times the price of his stablemate was beyond me. He showed plenty of dash for a juvenile with such a stout pedigree and I would be very confident that he would have improved from two to three!
It is very easy to be smug after the fact but at least there is a good chance that my ante-post wager on Kingman will pay for this year’s Guineas meeting at Newmarket after his easy victory in the Greenham Stakes. I am not entirely convinced that the field was one of great quality as there were several in the field that had reputations and little more; whilst Berkshire faded very tamely and connections clearly decided that the best chance for Astaire was to set a moderate pace and try to steal the race. Kingman quickened in the style of a top quality colt and it does not appear that his visit to the surgeon has left a mark. With Australia taking his big reputation (based chiefly on home work) direct to the Rowley Mile, all attention will now be on two-year-old champion Toormore if he does actually show up for the Craven Stakes. The cramped prices of the front two in the ante-post market do not really reflect how open the race looks at the moment, unlike the first fillies’ Classic.
Austrailia is the best horse AOB has trained QM..well on the flat anyway...apparently! Seriously though Kingman was mightily impressive today, he quickened really well and I was very taken by the performance. As of now he is the one to beat but at his price of 2/1 is not tempting me too much. He will be bigger come the day perhaps. What price did you get Ante-Post QM if you dont mind me asking?
Kingman was impressive but apart from frankel and makfi in recent years that have won or participated in a trial for the guineas and won the race itself. Gosden is hot just now aswell still 3 weeks to go till race and saying he won't like fast ground is a massive worry for me . Hope it's good ground on the day as Australia will follow him through the field and nail him final 100 yards. I hope that we get to have a look at Adelaide who defeated the ballysax winner by 10l on his debut think he will love the mile races but will be a force over 7f to 10f
SaveTheHumans, if I had a pound for every time an inmate at Ballydoyle was described as the best horse that Aidan O’Brien has ever had, I would not need to work for a living. Last year it was Kingsbarns. I have every expectation that Australia will turn out to be a good middle-distance horse so the Guineas may turn out to be his Derby prep-race. I do not see Kingman as anything but a miler. That is why he was 20/1 for the Derby on Saturday morning and has now disappeared from the betting altogether. As for Kingman, I am only on at 8/1; odds which were virtually still available a month ago as they hardly moved after he won the Solario Stakes against just three rivals.
He didn't exactly say Kingman wouldn't like fast ground. He's just reluctant to risk him on it at this point of the season, given the fact he recently had an operation to remove a chipped piece of bone from his foot. Plus he's a big strong horse so some give in the ground would always be welcome. He wins the Guineas if he turns up though.
If Kingman reproduces yesterday's run it will take an absolute hero to beat him. I doubt Australia can win the 2000. I think he'll be seen at his best in the Derby.
Maybe Jim Bolger has something "awesome","best horse in the world" tucked away. ..or maybe he's still scraping egg off his face...
Bit surprised at the market's reaction (or lack thereof) to Toormore's run in the Craven. Maybe it was the fact he had to work a little to see off Grey Gatsby, who may have finished closer if he hadn't wandered, that left bookies and punters unimpressed. Or maybe the fact Be Ready blew out has devalued the form in some eyes. Either way, Hannon's charge comfortably won the leading Guineas trial giving away weight, and will surely come on for the run. 8/1 looks a cracking e/w price, although the problem is, he won't win, not if Kingman shows up. The market's all wrong though. Kingman's over bet and may not show up, Australia's 2nd fav because of his connections, and Toormore's way overpriced at 8/1.
You have pretty much hit the nail on the head here. All the money is already on Kingman (my own included) after his runaway debut success. As contenders have fallen by the wayside over the winter, the odds have contracted. There is a good chance that the on-course bookies (most of whom have no ante-post liabilities) will try to get him on the day. I do not see much prospect of Kingman not showing up because whilst accepting their concerns about fast ground, it is not very often that the Guineas meeting happens on quick ground and there is usually plenty of grass to cushion it. I think Australia is a Derby horse and the Guineas will be his Derby trial. Toormore did give weight and a beating to his Craven rivals but there was clearly something amiss with my Derby horse Be Ready and the bookies may be wrongly taking the form literally, whereas I think it is much more likely that Richard Hannon has left something to work on, so the champion two year old is over-priced right now.
I think kingman will be in first 3 no doubt if AOB stable is still as bad on May 3rd kingman wins easily think Australia can run him down for sure
I wouldn't be too worried about AOB's slow start to the season. But isn't the Guineas going to be Australia's prep for the Derby, as QM says above? I'm no expert on breeding, but Galileo out of Ouija Board definitely says middle distance to me.
It's a championship race it won't be a prep run everything that turns up 3rd of May will be there to try win the race
Just been looking at the pedigrees of the leading contenders and Kingman's really does take the eye. Greenham winners have a dismal record in the 2000 Gns but it's difficult to find one to beat him. I think Toormore had a good enough trial. He overcame trouble and I doubt he was 100%. Surprised he has eased so much in the betting as a result of that. I'll have to look further down the list for a decent ew shot
Not sure what has happened in the Craven over the years but Toormore's time was the second fastest ever (as far as I can tell), just .23secs slower than Toronado's last year (maybe the course has changed).
Whilst Toormore recorded a fast time and gave weight to the runner-up, I think that the form is being falsely assessed on the dismal showing of the principal market rival Be Ready who was tailed off last and has subsequently been reported to have suffered some type of heart fibrillation problem. The proximity of the Craven runner-up The Grey Gatsby does not make it look that special but I am sure that Richard Hannon did not have last year’s champion juvenile fully wound up. I note that the bookies have now shortened Toormore in the betting to create a three-horse win market where none of them represent any sort of a decent bet. Each-way punters will be hoping that one of the three runs badly so that they can get something placed at decent odds. I like Outstrip myself but I will not be betting as I am on the favourite ante-post. There is a good chance that on the day the Spanish horse is going to try to make all and the travelling Spanish fan club will see their hero reduced to a pacemaker. I do not see Toormore trying to make all but being up with the lead and going early coming out of the dip.
