See also Al Ferof's King George Now out for the season Long Run 7/2: It is hard to know what to write about this fellow. He appeared to have the world at his feet in 2011 when winning the delayed King George and Gold Cup, but maybe reality has caught up with the horse and maybe he was flattered by below par superstars Denman and Kauto Star. The proximity of What A Friend might confirm that- just a neck behind Kauto Star and with Denman just 4 lengths in front off level weights (Denman beat What A Friend 3L in the amazing 2010 Hennessey off 11 stone 12, and conceded 22lb-or just over a stone and a half - to What A Friend that day). At the same time, he hasn't been out the frame, ever. Remarkable really. However, his performances have been characterised by the same thing every single time since that Gold Cup win- no jumping rhythm, and not quite the tactical speed at the business end of a race. I just think at Kempton, he is always vulnerable to a horse who jumps well the whole way round and/or who can steal a few lengths going into the home turn. I'd be inclined to look elsewhere although he is always shortlisted as one to consider simply because his attitude is excellent, amongst all the disappointment. Sam Waley-Cohen hasn't got him settled into a rhythm and he is, despite those 2011 victories, a hinderance. Al Ferof 6/1 (5s in many places) This could look a massive price if the Paddy Power Gold Cup form holds up. It is easy to look at Grands Crus and say he was pulled off, the form is weak blah blah. Watch the race again and you will see Grands Crus move into contention nicely but that Tom Scudamore quickly realises he is in a losing battle against a strong travelling Al Ferof and Walkon. I thought he jumped magnificently and if he can keep up that standard of jumping, he has a serious, serious chance at a course that should suit his good cruising speed, and strong finish. Ruby Walsh said after his 3rd in the Victor Chandler chase at Ascot that this horse will make a cracking King George ride next season, and now he has a chance to see whether or not he is up to it. Riverside Theatre 7/1 A horse I really love and was one antepost shout I got right last year at 11/1 for the Ryanair, as I knew the cobblers about him not handling Cheltenham would prove just as much. I backed him each-way in the 2010 (Jan 2011) King George and was really taken by his race. I thought with some better jumping he would have had more of a say and felt a stiff finish like Cheltenham would suit him. I actually think he and Long Run are a bit closer matched these days but that Long Run would see him off if jumping well enough. I cant much more than 5 lengths between them now and if I'm against Long Run, I simply have to be against Riverside Theatre. Cue Card 7/1 This fellow could yet be anything. He has some outstanding formlines beginning to tally up. If he improves for a step up in trip as opposed to it not suiting his sometimes buzzy style, then we might have a serious racehorse on our hands. I have always liked him and I admired his attitude when really trying to get back at Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. I do, however, think Al Ferof may yet see him off again simply because of their rhythms. Cue Card can jump brilliantly, but I dont think Joe Tizzard has learnt how to settle him into an even stride yet and for now I oppose him. If they can switch him off and get him jumping cleanly though, he has the turn of foot to cause serious problems for the rest. A really interesting entry and a fascinating thing to see. Sizing Europe 8/1 I boldly predicted he would win a 3m Grade 1 chase this year. He is THE best jumper in the field bar none. The track is flat, it will play to his strengths, and he will hold every chance 3 out. We will have to let him answer the rest himself on Boxing Day. There could be a point in the race though where he will have the likes of Long Run and Riverside Theatre in serious, serious trouble because he will jump himself into a lead at some point in this race and he can go at a speed that leaves people trailing. I do think that Sizing Europe might just play the whole race into the hands of Al Ferof- he will jump well, and only those with a good enough cruising speed will stay in touch in 3rd or 4th- Al Ferof and Cue Card, and I think the stamina of Cue Card might just be edged by Al Ferof, who stayed in really well in the Supreme Novice and Paddy Power Gold Cup. However, he jumps so well that he might yet have enough here. This is his biggest chance EVER of winning a 3 mile Grade 1, and at 8/1 I will play, as part of a double header. Captain Chris 12/1 Keep looking at this as a dark horse. We always knew when he won the Arkle that he would stay further, and his tendency to jump right handed lends itself to Kempton (as it did at Ascot LTO when a good winner). He might well have grown up as he looked a bit babyish still last year in his first season in open company, and as an 8 year old he might have a big season to offer us. He did struggle to stay at the very end of last year, but he wasn't himself and I wonder if he might travel into the race a lot better this time around. Place prospects IMO at best. Grands Crus 12/1 Obviously ran really well in last years Feltham but his short stride and the gaining Silviniano Conti and Bobs Worth at the end of that race temper my enthusiasm. I think Grands Crus is a lovely animal with great cruising speed, which is enough to cruise up behind Big Bucks in a World Hurdle but doesnt guarantee you a stellar chasing career- as Big Bucks himself has proved. He has a breathing operation to get over and will need at least one run to put himself straight IMO. Can't see him running, and would need to see more before considering. Finians Rainbow 12/1 Classy animal. However, he was outstayed by Somersby at Ascot over 2m, and although he won well at Aintree, I think in a top class 3m race he is vulnerable. I also think Sizing Europe can get revenge on him for an unlucky defeat in the Champion Chase, and that he looked a little out of sorts at Ascot with no real explanation. Think he will be oustayed in this, and outjumped. May bounce back down the line though. Sir Des Champs 14/1 As it stands, he looks like runing in the Lexus. Just as a precaution though, I would bear in mind the fact that First Lieutenant (270/1 on Betfair for this race) looks set for the Lexus, Weapons Amnesty is set for the Lexus, and possibly also Bog Warrior. The fact that SDC is 24s on Betfair tells you that whilse the LExus is favourite, no decision has yet been made and the King George is being considered, at least for now. If he runs, he is my pick. He jumps well, he stays all day, he has an underrated cruising speed and when you wake him up he responds. Real potential. Kauto Stone 14/1 Really nice reappearance and the form on paper is pleasing. He looked like he may have improved and the King George ought to be the sort of 3m test he would enjoy. Good speed, good jumper. Get the vibe from connections that Al Ferof is their number 1 hope but that they think this horse could run a nice race without winning. The Giant Bolster 20/1 A big price for a Gold Cup 2nd and a pleasing enough reappearance in the Betfair Chase. Jumping always the concern but on a line through Long Run he has way overpriced with the trainer confident he will have come on tonnes from that Haydock run. Hunt Ball 33/1 The owner reckons that if it doesnt come up soft he won't be out of the first 3. That said though, he is an absolute lunatic and I don't quite know how to take it! He improved brilliantly last year but he hasn't done enough to suggest a King George win is on the cards. There are one or two too classy and too speedy in a King George, at least in my opinion anyway! No doubt he will interest the e/w players. At this stage, If you had £20 I would have £5 on Sir Des Champs to cover him at Betfair odds of 24/1, just incase. I think 6/1 on Al Ferof is very generous and given the way the race is likely to pan out with speedsters Cue Card and Sizing Europe, Al Ferof is the one who has the mix of crusing speed and strong finish to go very close. £10 on him I think, with the other £5 on Sizing Europe, who I personally cannot see out of the frame in this event because he will jump this lot into serious trouble with a mile remaining and this is not the stiff Down Royal slog he has been outdone by in the past. I think this is a brilliant King George in prospect and this is the first part of the story that will tell us where the novices are in terms of their step up into 'Top Table' company. Less than 2 weeks to go- how do we see it panning out?
Sam Waley-Cohen hasn't got him settled into a rhythm and he is, despite those 2011 victories, a hinderance. Spot on You wouldn't stick a dentist in an F1 car. One win out of how many rides in the last twelve months? He's Rubbish! Good article mate, not made my own mind up just yet on a winner.
We will hopefully know the value of Al Ferof's form after Walkon's run on Saturday. I remain a tad sceptical. We know he goes really well fresh (he would be 4/4 on season debut but for making a novices error with the race at his mercy at Cheltenham 2 years ago) but the Paddy Power form cannot, for me, be taken at face value given that 2/3 of the field failed to finish. Sizing Europe has chances, especially if the race is run at a slow pace. However I'm not sure that will transpire and I think he might end up being outstayed. I think we will see a very different Grands Crus in this race, as I am sure it will be his main target this season. He will likely go for the Ryanair at the Festival but, lets be honest, that race comes a poor 2nd to the King George in terms of prestige. The Paddy Power was a pipe opener (no pun intended) and Ithink he'll be bang there in this. Captain Chris is the other one I'd have on the shortlist - looks a much more capable animal this season. I'll wait for the day of the race before striking a bet though - no value in the AP market any more.
Very easy puzzle to solve in my opinion. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again I can’t see beyond Mr Henderson’s Long Run. His ‘prep’ run at Haydock Park will have put him spot on for this target and he will have undoubtedly benefited since that effort from expert tuition at the ‘magic’ hands of Mr Henderson. Long Run’s form in Grade 1’s at Kempton Park is top drawer as it reads -112 and don’t forget, people, that when 2nd in last terms King George VI he was 17 lengths clear of the 3rd! Meanwhile, I can not understand all this negatitivity re old boy Sam Waley-Cohen. Even before Long Run came on the scene he had won races at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals and last year in the space of 3 months won the King George VI and Cheltenham Gold Cup prior to riding home the 2nd in the Grand National. If this is the CV of a bad jockey then I’m sure several pilots would like to be deemed ‘bad’! Finally, if Grands Cru was mine I’d transfer him from the Pipe’s to either Mr Henderson or Mr Nicholls. The Pipe’s just can not train and condition horses to do it year in, year out unlike the other 2 handlers who reproduce the same horses year after year to excel at the very top. Grands Cru had decent seasons in 2010/11 and 2011/12 but I just don’t think he will ever do it again at the highest level for the Pipe’s.
While i agree with your sentiments regarding Long Run Barney, i think you need locking up regarding SWC. The old excuse of he's won on him before etc doesn't wash. 1 winner in the last year, riding horses most pros could only dream of riding. Are you saying that SWC is anywhere near as good as Barry or Ruby is crazy.He is a dentist with less than 100 races under rules in the last 5 years. How can he compete with McCoy, Johnson, Walsh etc. who have 100 per month? Unless we are saying that jockeyship isn't a skill? I'm sorry but SWC riding Long Run is more of a negative than a plus in my book. The horse deserves a top pro onboard.
Barney, I admire your loyalty but I think the whole Henderson love often detracts from considering the opposition properly. Do you not think his jumping inconsistencies leave him short at the top level? Kauto was brilliant last year but he was also 11 and certainly not at his absolute. He had no excuses in the Gold Cup either- he had everything in his favour and didnt have enough at the business end- yet again. He has started to look one paced to me. He is obviously a top level chaser but I suspect he will be an infrequent winner against the cream of the crop.
Fair assessment Oddy. I do understand Al Ferof has a fair bit to prove in terms of being a horse who performs all year round. He did look very impressive in the Paddy Power though off that weight. How do we view Cue Card up at 3m?
Galaxy, I really believe that in NH racing sometimes we get a little bit carried away about the jockeys (personally I believe that who is on a horse is far, far more important on the level than over jumps where the racing is naturally more fast paced, vital decisions have to be taken in a fraction of a second and even one tiny mistake can rule a horse out of a winning opportunity). Over jumps I honestly believe that providing you have one of the top 50 jockeys on board who it is makes very little difference (and I may be in a minority but I feel that SWC falls into that bracket). A list of winning riders in the Grand National goes someway to confirming this view because if you look at these there are some very notable missing names (Francome, Scudamore, Williamson, etc) yet a whole host of jockeys deemed to be, by most, a million miles away from top jockey status have won the race. Ruby and the McCoy boy take all the headlines re jump jockeys but if I had to nominate an absolute top jockey then I’d say that Paddy Brennan and Denis O’Regan are at least as competent as that pair. Is SWC the greatest jockey ever??? Of course not. But I really feel he doesn’t deserve a lot of the critiscm he receives and feel it unfair that so often if Long Run wins it is all down to the horse but if he loses it is primarily SWC’s fault. I said a few weeks ago that Long Run has never finished one place below what he would have done had anyone else ridden him since coming to the UK and because of SWC’s record aboard the old boy think it harsh that people are continually talking about jocking him off. Toppy, I’ve still got faith in Long Run getting back to his brilliant best and in Mr Henderson what better man is there to ensure that he leaping returns to A+ status. I suppose a worry has to be that Long Run could be one of those French breds who peaked ridiculously early but for the rest of the term I’m prepared to hope (and expect) that he will reclaim former prizes such as the St Stephen’s Day highlight and the CGC (although I still think Sir Des Champs will be very hard to beat in this).
Barney I posted this before the Betfair chase regarding Long Run. I just feel that a pro such as Geraghty would make all the difference. He has to be worth a couple of lengths on SWC at the very least. I think we need to step back and realise just how good Long Run has been, for one so young. The only 6yo since Mill House to win a Gold cup. He may of also been the only 5yo to win a King George since 1950 when Manicou won the race. Had the race not succumbed to the weather and ended up being run in January. It would still make him the earliest 6yo winner of the race.Then look at the 6yo's that have won the race - Kauto Star, Kicking King, Algan, The Fellow,Mill House & Mandarin. What shame was there in losing in the 2011 race, to the horse people regard as the greatest modern day chaser and who also holds the record of winning it five times. He still came second. I think we have yet to see the best of Long Run and i agree his jumping needs brushing up, but then a certain Kauto Star was never the greatest jumper in his early years either. For all we know,he may of still been growing into himself, as most horses don't reach full maturity until 7 years of age. This season shall tell us all we need to know, but it'll take a good one to beat Long Run.
Interesting debate re Long Run and his run in last years King George was very, very good. Doubts start to creep in though when you look at his subsequent performances - 3rd behind Synchronised and The Giant Bolster in the CGC and 2nd to Silviniaco Conti at Haydock. The way he was staying on behind Kauto Star up the Kempton straight, one would have thought the CGC would be his for the taking. To be fair to SWC, he had him in pretty much perfect position coming down the hill and off the final bend, but the horse found very little up the home straight. A very disappointing performance in the context of his previous achievements. At Haydock he was again ridden to sleep by a masterful ride from Ruby Walsh and here I would be critical of connections for, in my opinion, failing to make use of his stamina and taking the race by the scruff of the neck down the back straight. I don't buy this nonsense about the Betfair Chase being a prep race - Long Run will likely only have 3 or 4 races this season so I cannot believe a Grade 1 Chase would be used to freshen him up.
After watching Sprinter Sacre demolish his field in the Tingle Creek, my first thought was "how good is Cue Card?" I'm not sure whether 3 miles is any easier to get round Kempton than it is anywhere else, but Edredon Bleu managed it, so perhaps the flat fast track, which does suit speedy types, helps them get home. If Joe Tizzard can get him into a rhythm, I can see him winning handsomely. Continues to be overlooked and overpriced imo.
Despite the criticism of SWC, and I'm not a fan of his, I think he has some kind of rapport with Long Run and I doubt any other jockey would do any better on him; in fact jockeys who are undoubtedly better than SWC may well do worse than him on Long Run. As Barney says, he can't be too bad a horseman to be on board the winner of a KG and GC and come 2nd in the GN. One doesn't have to be a top winning jockey to be a good horseman. As regards Long Run, undoubtedly a very good horse but when the pace is on he does seem a little uncomfortable when he has an excellent jumper out-jumping him. If he isn't out-jumped he wins.
Blimey, that has hotted the debate up. I do listen when you say a horse is a jailcase but I am surprised you have plumped for Long Run in this- interesting. What do you think will see him home Boris?
Anthony Knott on Hunt Ball in the Paddy Power: "He is 50-60lb out on soft ground" What a character. "If our boy gets the ground I can't see anyone beating him. At 33/1, I'm advising everybody FILL YER BOOTS UP" LOL! Im almost scared to oppose him!
He is the only Gold Cup horse in the race, Riverside Theatre, Finians Rainbow, Sizing Europe and Cue Card are non stayers and I doubt they are good enough anyway, he was 17 lengths in front of Captain Chris in the race last year, Al Ferof is a nice horse but he will have to improve a stone on the Paddy Power form, the second to Silviniaco Conti in the betfair is the best form in the race by a country mile and Long Runs record at Kempton is excellent. He always comes on for his first run and he didnt have too hard a race last time, I think he only has to put in a decent round to win comfortably. 4/1 with Corals is excellent value imo, will be surprised if he goes off bigger than 9/4 once SDC is confirmed for the Lexus and people really start to look at the form.
people are finally starting to wake up and smell the bacon. this guy is a serious, serious horse. yes he disappointed in the supreme but it seems to have been held against him forever. his form last year is rock solid, and i made a fair wedge backing horses he'd beaten. i personally think he won't stay this trip, but if he does see it out as good as he does 2miles then he wins. I really like him for the Ryanair and he's actually probably not that far off being the second best 2 miler out there. I really mean that. If (and I don't for a minute want it to happen) Sprinter Sacre missed Cheltenham (genuinely touched wood which is a ridiculous thing to do ) we'd be in line for a cracking race between last years top 2, Sanctuaire and Cue Card. I know there are some who take that early season Haldon Gold cup form with a pinch of salt but to me it was no surprise and I advised everyone to lump on on here the night before the race. I'm glad he's getting the credit he deserves, just disappointed that I won't get a price about him for anything anymore!!
I think Long Run is finished. Won't back him again until I see something that proves otherwise. That Gold Cup was desperately weak and the stable was flying.
I'm a Captain Chris fan - the yard were convinced thsi horse would win a Gold Cup at some point but hadn't bargained for the jumping errors that crept into his game, his performance at Ascot last time was much improved and possibly provides the single best piece of middle distance chasing form this season, he was awesome that day and had some extremely talented horses behind. At 12/1 I think he's outstanding value - he jumped poorly in every one of his races last year including this race, but after so many errors he still managed to stay on and finish 3rd (albeit a long way back), and watch the tape of his Ryanair and you'll see he didn't settle, jumped poorly and ran very wide from 3 out costing him plenty fo ground yet despite that he stayed on to finish 4th in the hottest Ryanair I can remember. His chances all hinge on his jumping but if they've resolve those issues he's a serious horse....
Agree Grizzly, has more chance this way round than at left handed tracks like Cheltenham and no better jockey on top either.
