I'm a worrier - I'm sorry, I just am. That said on 33 points, I think we're just about safe now. The reason for that is that the others don't look like catching us. (Notice "I think" and "don't look like" there... ever the worrier, always covering myself). 1) QPR have a nightmare run in. Absolute nightmare. I'm not even kidding. 11 games left and, of those, the last four will be: Spurs at home, Chelsea away, Stoke at home and Man city away. How many points will they get there? Add to that, they also have Man U, Arsenal and Liverpool. A lot of top teams there. Do you see them getting more than a point a game out of those 11? 2) Wigan will get beat away at Norwich next week and then they still have to play West Brom (who are in incredible form) then a nightmare run of Liverpool, Stoke, Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal. Do you see them catching up 13 points? And the goal difference? 3) Blackburn have Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs to play. They're an odd bunch as they can pull amazing results out of the bag and then lookquite negative against Villa. Again, will they gain 11 points (prob 12 to cover for the goal difference) on us? 4) Wolves, whilst they have a lot of good players, seems to be in a bit of a mix at the moment, having changed the manager for the incredibly different direction of his assistant. They do have Man U, Stoke, Arsenal, Man city and our good selves. They might deal better with Stoke than we did - but I don't think they'll get the 12 more points than us to finish higher. Of course we have Man city next week, Spurs in there and Man Utd and Liverpool over the last two weeks... but we already have the head start and should still pick up enough to get to the magic 40 points. So phew, deep breath. I feel a bit more relaxed - but I wont stop fretting until it is mathematically impossible for us to slip into those spaces... On a less worried, more positive note: we are actually far closer to 8th place. 3 more points and we would be there! Maybe we should start looking up...
I'm more relax now than I was after the last two games. To me Wigan was a must win game with Man City next week. Two more wins and we will be safe.
I agree that Wigan was pivotal. Can't see us slipping up now. If I had to pick three it's Wigan, Bolton and Wolves. But still all to play for.
Goodland excellent post mate and welcome to the board, agree that we are pretty much safe now after yesterday, it was the reaction we needed from our manager and team, and I'm sure Rodgers new it was a pivotal moment to seize, and we did it well, I'm sure we'll get a few more wins to see the season out, and get the 40 points, great to be a Jack aye, what a first season lads!................... please log in to view this image
Thanks for the kind words Dragon. Looking at the teams, I would say Bolton, Wigan and Wolves to go down. Considering the fixture list, I would say: * QPR and Wigan have horrible run ins and I don't see them amassing many points. * Wolves look to be caving, especially after seeing them against Fulham. * Blackburn seem to have ridden the storm with Kean and, as unpredicatble as they are, I think they have enough in them. Certainly more than the others. * Bolton are quite unimpressive but have an astonishingly easy run in (just one top team - Spurs). So if they don't stay up they will have only themselves to blame. So, in reality I think the bottom of the table will look like this: Blackburn Bolton ---- QPR Wolves Wigan What do you guys think?
Goodland I had WBA, Wolves, and Wigan for the drop early season, but QPR could well take up one of those positions, strange old game aye, particularly since QPR went up as Champions, and gave it big early season to us, as this thread by a QPR supporter shows, oh how the cookie crumbles aye!............. please log in to view this image Link: http://www.not606.com/showthread.php/54012-Evening-Phil-thought-I-d-pay-you-a-visit!
I'm sure I'm not the only person who started off the season with my first goal being to not break Derby's infamous record of 11 points , to be honest ! Boy did that wish change in a hurry . You'd have to go back ( excluding last season ) almost 10 years to find a team needing 40 points to survive . Last seasons " 40 point " cut off for survival was the exception , not the rule . We've held our nerve on the cheap while others have lost there nerve while throwing money ever which way , I'm as proud of that fact as any this season .
Good post, Goodland. Consider this: the bottom 5 have played 40 games between them since Jan 1st 2012 and won just 7 and most of them were wins against each other. Blackburn 3 QPR 2 Blackburn 3 Fulham 1 Everton 1 Bolton 2 Bolton 3 Liverpool 1 QPR 3 Wigan 1 Bolton 1 Wigan 2 QPR 1 Wolves 2 This suggests none of them are going anywhere fast, so I think we're safe although it's unlikely to be a mathematical certainty until the second half of April. My guess is Wigan, Wolves & QPR to go down but a slight improvement by any of them could see them survive.
We could start thinking about it for next season as well...all of those 5 teams are pretty useless, and could take a relagation spot for next season...So, who would be the best team to stay up, in terms of us staying up next season? Probably wolves, Bolton. QPR will have money, Blackburn seem a solid prem team, and Wigan...welll, I don't know. also, to finish 8th would be great, Gives us more money in the coffers to improve the team. Isn't it like an extra 500k for each place you are
