Swansea’s starts give them at least 76% survival chance

Courtesy of Northolt QPR Mod

By Brian Sears

24 November 2011

As Swansea City’s manager Brendan Rodgers starts talks about a new contract, analysis by Sportingintelligence shows that Swansea and their fellow promoted teams in the Premier League – QPR and Norwich – each have at least a 76 per cent chance of survival this season, based on their decent starts.

Even before a ball was kicked, history suggests the promoted trio each had a 53.6 per cent chance of survival. This is based on 56 teams previous being promoted to the Premier League since 1992, and 30 of those 56 teams (or 53.6 per cent) surviving their first season. That means 26 of the 56 immediately went down.

This season, all three promoted teams have made promising starts and have gained a total of 41 points, having played 12 games each, with QPR on 15 points, and Norwich and Swansea on 13 points each.

Among the 56 promoted teams in the past 19 seasons, 34 of them amassed 13 or more points from their first dozen games, and of those 34, eight were relegated (or 23.5 per cent), meaning the survival rate for 13 points after a dozen games is 76.5 per cent. (Details of the eight who went down are in the table below).

On this basis, Norwich and Swansea, with 13 points after 12 games, each have a 76 per cent survival chance.

QPR’s chances with 15 points after 13 games, are even better. Among promoted teams, only 24 have amassed as many points from the first 12 games, and only four of those, or 16.7 per cent, ended up relegated. So that means 83.3 per cent survived – and that’s QPR’s survival chance now.

The highest tally for a promoted side after 12 games was amassed by Nottingham Forest in 1994-95 (with 27 points) followed by Wigan (25 points in 2005-06) and Blackburn (25 points in 1992-93).

The lowest tallies were amassed by Swindon (five points from first 12 games 1993-94) and Sunderland (five points in 2005-06), then Derby (six points in 2007-08).

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http://www.sportingintelligence.com...give-them-at-least-76-survival-chance-241101/

 

I think you can make statistics work in any way that suits an argument. In my distant and unbiased view, you simply have to look at the quality of football in comparison to the other Prem clubs. From what I've seen, Swansea look far from being out of place in the top flight and will reap the benefits of sticking to their footballing ethos. Putting aside the disappointment of you guys making it before us, I don't think even the most ardent Cardiff fan could reasonably argue that you look anything less than a quality Prem club. None of us who stand outside and look in would really say that they doubted your ability to stay up.
There will no doubt be people who will use the arguments that have been laid at your door before in as much that you will have to now spend big. They said this about staying in the Championship and getting promoted to the prem. As it turned out, good managment by Hugh Jenkins and the appointment of successive good team managers, has helped you do what many other clubs aspire to. No-one will ever be able to accuse you guys of buying success, like myself, they will have to get honest and appreciate that the biggest thing going for the Swans is their football ethic.
It's been a joy to see you stick to your attractive style.
Good luck for the rest of the season.

 

Yeah you can make stats say anything you want, still its just something that underlines what has happened previously. Think Wigan and Blackburn are in a pickle at the moment and unless they start picking up points and quickly they are in for the drop.

As for our style of play and how we are fitting in , think its looking good so far and I am happy with our progress, but it's good to hear from neutrals in this, even if you are our local rivals be good if both welsh clubs were in the premier league, would love a local derby up here

 

Clingo cheers mate, very much appreciated!.................

 

stats indicate mark gower as the best player in the premier league! I rest my case

Intresting read though and its better than us being favourites for the drop. 2nd. Half of the season is what kills most new teams so i would like to see where we Are in march/april .