Right, lads, we are fast approaching crunch time where every team in the bottom half of the table is weighing the points they need to achieve to stay up. That's fairly easy; 40 points should guarantee it with some saying that 38 will be enough. But where will these points come from? That's a harder ask and I've been looking at our remaining fixtures to try and estimate our potential haul. We, of course, need 14 more points to achieve that magical, 40 points, £48 million target. I've worked from the top down and my best guess, based on the season and our games thus far is as follows:- Manchester City Home 0 points. Manchester Utd Away 0 Spurs Away 0 Chelsea Home 1 Toon Home 3 Liverpool Home 1 Stoke Away 1 Norwich Home 3 Fulham Away 0 Everton Home 3 WBA Away 1 QPR Away 0 Bolton Away 1 Blackburn Home 3 Wolves Home 3 Wigan Away 1 Sub Total 21 points Grand Total 47 points. Now, I don't think that it will pan out exactly like that. If I did, I would be placing some hefty money on the fixed odds. But you get my drift. There will be some unexpected results for and against us but one thing is fact. If we get 5 wins we are safe. Looking at my forecasts, I don't think I am being unduly optimistic when, given our home form, I feel we should beat Toon, Norwich, Everton, Blackburn and Wolves. Of course, it is possible that we will draw or lose some of those games, but, equally, we might beat Wigan and Bolton away, or perhaps Chelsea at home. Anyway, those are my thoughts, so what are yours? I have forecast a 7 point safety margin (might be more) that would allow us 2 further defeats and a draw from my predictions. Personally, I think it's on. Do you?
very realistic,It is up to us if we want to stay up,we are lucky or we have done very well being in 13th and with 8pts of being in the bottom 3.yes i would agree with you,but i hope we dont get too complacent.we all want to stay up,we have a real good chance now.
I Think its very accurate ivor, i had us down for 36 pts this season we Are above where i expected us to be, my big worry is injury at centre half, seeing ash and caulker on the floor yesterday brought home how exposed we could be, defensive cover if needed Will be key, we Are looking safe and i Think it helps that Wigan ,bolton and Blackburn have had poor seasons. Good post
I've tried to do the above before in previous seasons but nothing pans out as you would expect so it's a waste of time I'm afraid
A lot can happen between now and the end of the season but for what its worth here is my guess as to how it might pan out - 19 points which would give us 45 points but who knows we could get 2 or 3 more or 3 or 5 less! Whichever way hopefully its survival. Manchester City Home 0 points. Manchester Utd Away 0 Spurs Away 0 Chelsea Home 0 Toon Home 3 Liverpool Home 3 Stoke Away 0 Norwich Home 1 Fulham Away 1 Everton Home 3 WBA Away 1 QPR Away 1 Bolton Away 1 Blackburn Home 1 Wolves Home 3 Wigan Away 1
I'm putting these in blocks. Let's rule out anything from the big boys (Though I think we can get something off Chelsea) Manchester City Home 0 points. Manchester Utd Away 0 Spurs Away 0 Chelsea Home 0 Toon Home 3 Liverpool Home 0 Stoke Away 0 Norwich Home 3 Fulham Away 1 Everton Home 1 WBA Away 1 QPR Away 0 Bolton Away 1 Blackburn Home 3 Wolves Home 3 Wigan Away 1 So I have us getting 17 points, which means 43pts, so going to be tight in my view, but enough to keep us up. Lets hope so!!!!
The last few weeks I've started to believe we're going to stay up in style. There are easily 3 worse teams than us in the league, and I think some clubs are probably already thinking we're more likely to stay up than they are (Wigan, Blackburn?) - I'd say 45-47 pts would be about right.
I like the idea, Ivor but as aswan says you cannot predict anything in this League. I wouldn't mind betting we'll beat Chelski at home then lose away to Wigan for example. But looking at the matches left I think we've got more than enough to get over the line. I'm still hopeful of a top half finish. Just. Despite what some are saying our away performance levels are definitely improving each game and I see no letup in our home form. That should be more than enough. Good post.
Were going to come off a 5 game run of Tottenham , Villa , Arsenal , Sunderland & Chelsea with 7 points already without playing Chelsea yet . At 1.5 points per game till the end of the season IMO , 27 + 26 = 43 .
5 wins out of 16 games (41 poits) is not a big ask, if we're good enough to stay here. Where they come from is irrelevant.
Your get top half easy lads d.w, out of interest i know he only played 25mins yesterday but how did Josh do? Look comfortable on the ball and that?
Too early to say for me, we have alot of other players like Joe allen and leon britton who are just as comfortable on the ball as Josh,so he didnt stand out yesterday. Its very early days for him though and he still probably doesnt know all the other players names yet!! If he was at another team his passing would probably stand out more, hope that doesnt sound too arrogant but as i said,early days
stay up just.......but we must start putting the ball in the net when we are dominating games like we did yesterday.....its up to brendan to sort out our starting line up for away games....
