Daily Racing Thread Sunday Dec. 2nd. 2018

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rudebwoy said:
you're being generous there , mug punters yes , but if you are anyway curious / engaged a different perspective is easy , does need discipline and patience though , which for many is unattainable .
in my town there are a few regulars in the shops who you would class as shrewd , the bulk fall into the fodder category.
On here though the demographic is very different , i'd say it's the other way round .....
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I think you are on the nail here Rudey
A lot of people you find in betting shops are quite simply “addicted gamblers”. The people the slots and virtual racing are being aimed at.
Other than those working in the industry I imagine very few of the regular posters on here are betting shop punters. I could have that drastically wrong and whilst not wishing to categorise people, my time spent in the industry led me to this belief.
 
Grendel said:
It was Heavy when Buveur D'air won the race this season. Clutching at straws I feel.
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Quite possibly Grendel but if it turns up anything from soft to heavy this will help Samcro. There was no Samcro in this year's Champion Hurdle. Anything can happen in a race over hurdles when going the pace they do...(BVD might fall...horse might fall in front of him bringing him down), he might not turn up on the day...he might get injured. You are talking like it is a certainty...

Re Apples Jade she wasn't the same horse last season...she was 'in season' for a period of it including when at Cheltenham.
 
Grendel said:
I was talking about the average punter, that obviously includes everyone who has a bet. It is somewhat amusing that some people seem to have offence as a default setting and need to take some personal sleight at every opportunity.

Studying races takes time and if you are the sort of person who wants to bet in almost every race it is nigh on impossible to have sufficient time to be thorough. I would rather play a lot less often and look deeper into it.

Each to their own but there is no need to be catty about it just because someone has a different methodology. Plenty of posters here clearly know their stuff but that doesn't mean that all of us can't learn something from others.

Bookmakers keep ahead of the game by being more disciplined and professional than Joe "Ruby's due a win" Public.

Thanks for your well reasoned reply.
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either i haven't written very clearly or you haven't understood my point , either way , you've gone on some paranoid tangent ...... your original point was betting shop punters are generally mug punters , we concur , i then said this forum is a different space , where more enlightened / inquisitive / knolwegable people are able to express a view .
Why do you assume someone has taken offence at your post ?
 
Grendel said:
They are all very small risks though Captain. You can still get Evens on Buveur D'air so he's obviously not a cert but he does look by far the most likely winner.

Samcro lies 10 lbs behind Buveur D'air on Racing Post figures and Henderson has hinted that the Champ was well short of full ripeness for his debut.

Apples Jade may well have been below her best at Cheltenham last season but that was/is a weak contest with next to no strength in depth. Her last 2 mile win was against Let's Dance, a mare who kept to weak races in her career. The strength of that form is probably at least a stone short of what will be needed. Gordon Elliott upped her to 2m 4f on her third start for him and she beat Vroum Vroum Mag that day, a mare who, for all the bluster and hype, never had a higher official rating than 154. Other than one try at 3 miles, Apples Jade has stuck to the 2 and a half miles and she looks likely to stay there.

I suggested Samcro was overpriced at 12/1 yesterday but that was more with an each-way bet in mind. He was shortened today with Ladbrokes cutting him to 8/1 from 10's and Coral going 10 and then 9 from 12/1.

I am just offering opinions on value ideas here and am trying to stick to the topic and the horses. Now someone doesn't like me. Go figure it. Hatred for people you don't know or have never met.

Gee whiz. It's only an opinion.
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I agree on the value point for Samcro at 12/1 yesterday and commented so yesterday. Was tempted but I don't bet ante post as its a mugs game...it's difficult enough to pick winners let alone attempting this when you don't even know the conditions/opposition etc...

In the run up to Cheltenham there will be many posts on the ante post thread with people highlighting their ante post bets yet so many get sunk even before the festival starts. Yet they come back year after year to do the same again...I scratch my head trying to understand this behaviour to be honest..
 
Grendel said:
I have reported this post. No need at all to resort to petty, childish name calling. If you have no actual input to offer you should leave it to those who do.
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Hi Grendel,

I'm admin or if you like the boss around this place (just so there is no misunderstanding). There are some very mature lads and long term members on this section of the forum and I never get called here, because they manage themselves (unless Ron asks me to look into something) and betting can be a serious game for punters (in my eyes). So i will disappear again and let you sort out your differences sensibly. I hope that's clear.

@Ron
@Resurgam


<cheers>
brb
 
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Grendel said:
I've done well with ante-post bets in general. The strike rate is obviously going to be much lower but some are big odds and a 33/1 pays for plenty losers. Other times it's just about making a race worth watching on the day.

Anyway, I sense unpopularity here and know when it's time to leave. Best of Luck going forward Captain.
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Google the difference between discussing and pontificating <ok>
 
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