The Pretty Polly does not look a strong race this season. A three times raced short-head maiden winner is 6/4 favourite and I could not back at those odds in those circumstances.
Maqsad represents William Haggas and she was gritty last time in holding off a Gosden runner narrowly, with the pair clear. It was virtually a match between the two though, based on the betting and when a horse is a shortish favourite, you expect a clear advantage on performance. On official ratings Maqsad is ranked 92 and that leaves her behind John Gosden's Shambolic, who is rated 100 and Mark Johnston's I'll Have Another who sits on 97.
Shambolic won her first two races last season but they were modest affairs and they didn't work out at all well. Her rating is based on her 4th in the Group 1 fillies mile which wasn't the strongest renewal I can recall. She wound the season up in a 10F race at Saint-Cloud, when well down the field behind winner Wonderment. That is a race that has worked out as 0/8, 8 unplaced, since. I can't back Shambolic at about 3/1.
I'll Have Another ran in the Fielden Stakes on her seasonal return and probably her best piece of form was 2nd to Norway in the Zetland Stakes last year. Mark Johnston seems like Lucky Bingo to me in regards to whether they will run well or not and his filly folded like a concertina in the Fielden, trailing in last, beaten 22 lengths. I just couldn't back her, even at 12/1, although she will probably run better today.
In the circumstances I went with Clematis. Charlie Hills is by no means my favourite trainer but his First Defence filly won her only start in taking style at Kempton over a mile. She picked up nicely that day and although she needs a good step up, it is possible she could improve a fair bit in a race where none of the field are actually proven Listed class yet. Clematis has to get further than the mile this time but she ran on well last time, pulling three lengths clear of her field. At odds of 7/1 the chance was taken on Clematis finding the improvement on turf and over another 2 furlongs.
4.45 Newmarket Clematis 7/1
Good luck today.