Daily Racing Thread Sunday 30th. July 2023

Despite 4 non-runners the 2.00 Uttoxeter is a very interesting juvenile hurdle - both on paper and also from a betting perspective as I think we have a false favourite who is skewing the market. The horse in question is Majestic Jameela, as short as evens this morning but on the drift since and now easy to back at 7/4. She finished 2nd to Alan King's Two Past Eight at Aintree on debut but the form of the race looks weak with the winner subsequently beaten by Vitani (who also runs here but has the 7lbs penalty to contend with) and a number of those in behind subsequently disappointing. I can't help thinking the form is being viewed too positively just because an Alan King juvenile is in the equation and I'm happy to look elsewhere among the hurdling debutants for the winner. The obvious one is the Gredleys' Climate Precedent who makes his debut for James Owen with Harry Cobden up top - that pair have 2 winners, a 2nd and a 3rd from their last 5 runners so are obviously in good nick. Climate Precedent had 9 runs on the flat for Michael Bell and made steady progress when progressively upped in trip culminating in a 2nd over 12F at Lingfield. At 11/4 he is short enough though and it looks like yard form and jockey booking are skewing that price. Not for me. Dance Havanna had the most success on the flat, winning 2 races, but trainer Alice Haynes has yet to have a winner over jumps so again not for me. That leaves us (apart from the rags) two geldings from powerful NH yards - Donald McCain's Lahire and Olly Murphy's National Health. Neither of these has run in any sphere but Lahire is a half brother to a couple of winners and both Lahire and National Health are out of winning mares. Both are in very good hands and I will take these two to fight out the finish.

Small stakes reverse forecast Lahire / National Health

 

Both pulled up having jumped like Skodas - Lahire in particular.

Good win for Vitani under the penalty. At least I was right about the false favourite.