One I really like tomorrow at Market Rasen is HEAVENSTOWN 10-1 2.00, Now I would normally leave CJ races well alone but I am convinced that they have been running this former point to pointer to get a decent handicap mark. Tomorrow could be the day as I think he is very fairly treated and will have conditions to suit! It's a "free bet" race so have your next one ready!
‎2.30 Market Rasen Orsippus 20/1 Although he isn't without his risks, I think Orsippus looks massively overpriced in what looks his easiest task for a long long time and he looks very well handicapped and ready to strike if on song. Michael Smith's 6 year old was a Grade 1 winner at Aintree in his juvenile season and although he perhaps never reached those heights again he has some other credible efforts to his name and has been competing in much better company than this recently in which he has been outclassed. He races tomorrow off a mark of 134 which looks very manageable considering he beat the talented Barizan and Sanctuaire off level weights by 3.25L and 2.75L respectively when landing his Grade 1. As well as landing that race, Orsippus put in a fantastic effort at the Cheltenham Festival last year when finishing a fantastic 6.5L beaten 3rd behind Carlito Brigante in the Grade 3 Coral Cup handicap off a 2lb higher mark over this trip and on similar ground. Since this effort, he has run 3 times in Listed or Graded company against rivals who were simply too good for him but he will have a lot less on his plate tomorrow as he ventures into a Class 3 handicap. Although at a much lower level, Orsippus showed he still retains his will to win when winning on the flat back in October which is an obvious plus as he has been winless over jumps for 21 months. Tomorrow represents trainer Michael Smith's only runner of the day at Market Rasen and it is a track where the trainer has a fantastic 33% strike rate from 9 runners at the track so its obviously a track where likes to enjoy success. The talented 5lb claimer Jack Quinlan teams up with Smith for the first time and he looks a very eye catching booking as he comes here an hour and a half before riding for his main trainer John Ferguson and it looks significant. Smith, who doesn't have a huge amount of runners over the jumps, is winless in this sphere since last April which is a concern but he's only had 9 runners since then (3 times was Orsippus) so although its not ideal it isn't a grave concern either. He had a flat winner last month so the yard isn't out in the wilderness. Tomorrow is a huge drop in Class and if bouncing back to his best off an effective handicap mark of 129 with Quinlan's claim then he could be extremely difficult to beat at a very big price (providing connections aren't using this race to drop his handicap mark further for another attempt at the festival).
Vhujon tomorrow in the 4.55 really appeals to me and I have put my money on another Larry G horse. It won very easily last time out and with Dvinsky in the race it should have a proper pace to aim at. Robbie is riding really well and the yards horses are running much better at the minute. At 5/1 I think its a very good price for its chances, and knowing the market it could drift before the race too.
Kempton 4.25 Palace Moon 5-1 This is a very interesting horse as he is 5-1 getting weight from horses who quite frankly would never have found themselves in the company he has. Palace Moon has won well contested listed races and been sent off with big weights in such handicaps as the Bunbury cup and Wokingham and still gone very close. Were this race run 18 months ago he would be short odds on, last year he simply did not fire nor seem in love with racing anymore, should he return with he's old zest however 5 -1 will seem like the bet of the year as he will be unbeatable, this was a class horse. I cannot pass it up and so have just taken the 5's best odds. I actually quite like the Kempton card for betting purposes today and so have taken some early prices (all best odds guaranteed ) through the card. 2.20 Garstang 20-1 EW 2.50 Hurricane Hymnbook 7-1 3.25 Shaunas Spirit 2-1 Nap 3.55 Fire in Babylon 5-2 4.25 Palace Moon 5-1 4.55 Volcanic Jack 8-1
Thanks for all the welcome messages. @ stick, thanks for the message re the other Sheena West runner. As far as today's fayre goes I'm in total agreement with the previous poster (Roto). Orsippus - Market Rasen - 2.30. Completely outclassed lto but with the claimer on board should be competitive today. 14/1 with paddy power (BPG).
2.50 Kempton If You Whisper 25/1 I'm absolutely convinced If You Whisper is going to pop up at big odds sometime soon and hopefully it will be today. Mike Muprhy's relatively unexposed 4 year old has gone slightly off the ball but resultantly looks very well handicapped and I think the step up to 11f will suit as I see his future lying over these middle distance trips. Tomorrow represents his easiest assignment to date and his lowest ever handicap mark of 67 and although his last couple of runs have been a bit disappointing I think this could be down to the effect of the blinkers wearing off after bringing about improvement after his first run in the headgear. After his first two races, If You Whisper took a big step forward when finishing 0.75L behind Towering Spirit over 1m at Kempton being collared close home after battling against the fence to get a clean run. The form of that race looks decent, with Sinfonico 1.5L back in 4th winning off a mark of 84 subsequently. The 5th Groomed who was 3.25L behind If You Whisper winning off a mark of 79 too so it wasn’t a bad maiden at all. After this, If You Whisper justified odds on favouritism when winning a 5 runner contest at Southwell by a length to Mazovian and although the form of that race isn’t very good, the horses have in behind have won in lower grades and it showed he is able to win which is important. On his 5th start back in January, If You Whisper made his handicap debut off a mark of 78 and started as the outsider of the field in a 4 runner Class 4 handicap here at Lingfield but ran a very good race to finish 1L behind the winner The Tichborne. It was a steadily run race so I am inclined to believe that the form of this race is genuine. The form of that race look promising with the winner placing twice off a 4lb higher mark, including a very narrow 0.62L 3rd in the Britannia Stakes behind the excellent Sagramor. Further to this, the 3rd that day Amwell Pinot has won since off a 1lb off 91 higher mark and was 1L behind If You Whisper. If You Whisper made his reappearance run after being off since for 7 months and although he was disappointing he may well have needed this reappearance run and I’m willing to forgive that effort. After a few poor starts, If You Whisper was stepped up to 1m2f for the first time and shaped rather well but was ultimately disappointing as he didn't really pick up when asked in the home straight at Kempton in a Class 4. That was off a mark of 75 and he was well supported before the off, normally a very telling sign for a Murphy horse, so I think that a lot better was expected of him. 3 starts ago If You Whisper put up his best effort for a long time in first time blinkers when a consistently staying on and 3.5L beaten 4th. After being customarily held up at the back of the field throughout and having to race wide, If You Whisper turned into the home straight towards the rear and was finishing better than anything. It was also a race that suited those who raced prominently as the first 3 turning into the straight were also the first 3 home. This race looks very interesting in relation to tomorrow as If You Whisper had 3 of tomorrows rivals in behind him that day in the shape of Focal Maith (0.75L) Hurricane Hymnbrook (1.25L) and the well supported market leading Nibani (2.75L). More interesting still is that If You Whisper is better weighted with all 3 rivals by 7lb, 6lb and 9lb respectively and for a run that happened less than 2 months ago despite the differing subsequent results for my selction and these runners it is very hard to see them reversing the result at even worse terms. The last twice If You Whisper has ran poorly and the only excuse I can think of is that the blinkers initial success only lasted one run and they have been dispensed for tomorrow. Shane Kelly takes the ride on If You Whisper for the first time tomorrow and the 1 start that Murphy and Kelly teamed up this year resulted in a victory which is an obvious bonus. If You Whisper has a nice draw in stall 4 tomorrow which should hopefully allow him grab the inside rail at the back of the field which will save his energy for the finish. I also think that the field size will significantly help his cause as he will not have to make up a large a deficit as he has had to in previous races. Although he's not one to go crazy with, he has beaten 3 of his major rivals tomorrow recently and is significantly better weighted then them and 25/1 looks overpriced to me. He could easily drift again in the morning and although he needs to improve for the step up in trip and removal of blinkers I would not be the slightest bit surprised if he lands the spoils in this Class 5 event.
1.20 Fairyhouse Dazzling Susie 8/1 Came fourth in the best bumper run in England or Ireland last year. Has subsequently been given very tough assignments against a load of decent horses such as Dare To Doubt and Our Girl Salley and then in a grade one when beaten into last place against Sous Les Cioux. Obviously coming last in a grade one hardly screams next time out winner but at 8/1 there's enough reason to think this will be competitive. On bumper form alone this would win so I have to look to take the more favoured runners on. I can't understand why Oscars Business is backed into 2/1. The win last time out, although very easy, was against a load of dogs. Ceol Rua will have to step up on everything that it's done thus far to win so 2/1 is ridiculous IMHO.
Fire In Babylon is back out under a penalty today, but I am slightly worried that Now could reverse the placings. Any views?
As you know NASS I tipped it up the other day when it won so I watched it with interest. I think it was still very green, hanging its head slightly before the penny finally dropped. Still looked like there was plenty more to come in my opinion and I wouldnt oppose FIRE IN BABYLON today! Does all depend of course if Wigwam wants it to win!
Was backed all evening ROTO at the exception of almost everything else, makes me quietly confident for a big run. Great shout on TATENEN yesterday by the way! If mine wins today I may to have my free bet on yours
They wouldn't run it under a penalty if they didn't want it to run well. Its not going to go up 6lbs for the win (if he does then its a farce), I would normally be having a good go on it because I also thought he was green and perhaps in the need of the run on his return. However Now really took the eye and I think its in great form, I am backing FIB but not to the extent that I would have expected when I got my ATR alert.
Just the one horse for me today and already flagged up by ROTO which I'm taking as a positive Market Rasen 2.30 Orsippus 14/1bpg with paddy power. Completely outclassed lto but should be capable of a good showing in this company of his current mark with the added assistance of the jockey's 5lb claim. Thanks for all the welcome messages yesterday. Good luck to all today.
If You Whisper @ 20/1 (GP) Orsippus @ 14/1 (GP) Heavenstown @ 4/1 (GP) Dazzling Susie @ 10/1 (GP) N0T looked properley but liked the write ups on here so had EW L15 and small accum on the forom early bird picks stay frosty
Morning all Not alot tickling my fancy today but I will be having a little e/w play on Alan King's Dineur (NAP) in the 2.30 at Market Rasen. On his last appearance at Kempton 27th Dec he finished a decent 4th behind useful types Lifestyle, Higgy's Ragazzo and Art Professor and I think that piece of form could work out very well. Dineur steps up in trip today to 2m5f and I am sure they will adopt different tactics as, to date, they have tried to make all with him over the minimum trip. I think if they can get him covered up today and gradually work him into the race then his fluent hurdling will help him play a big part at the finish. Best of luck everyone
Oddy: Alles gut? Like the reasoning on Dineur. If Cross Of Honour does OK think I will have a small dabble too on Dineur. Have a bit in the bank now after yesterday, but I'm going to be tight as a duck's ass with my bets till Cheltenham. Want to have a bit aside for the Festival. Think e/w patents will be my main bet at the big meeting, 'cos the prices are so good it makes it a really attractive punt IMHO. Quiet day here, but will go for my usual two or three block round-the-houses walk! Have a good 'un! (mmm, might chuck-in a R/F with Swansbrook who might do a bit better if he has brushed-up his jumping, even if he is back to hurdles this time?).
