Sunday's Meetings Curragh Flat 8 Races 1:50-5:55p.m. Bath Flat 7 Races 1:57-5:30p.m. Doncaster Flat 7 Races 2:05-5:25p.m. Musselburgh Flat 7 Races 2:10-5:35p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Big day for Ballydoyle at Longchamp. Can last year‘s Boussac winner Opera Singer win the Vermeille? If she does so in good style she will be near the head of the Arc betting, given the weight pull for 3YO fillies in the Arc. She was tough as teak in the Nassau but one hopes Soumillon doesn’t think he is on Zarkava and try to pass the entire field up the straight. Last year‘s Leger winner and Arc 5th Continuous should take the Foy and is certainly treading an easier route to the Arc this year. Disappointing field. The Niel looks to be all about French Derby winner Look De Vega and it will be a major surprise if he doesn’t confirm Chantilly running with Sosie, such was his dominance in June. German Trainer Waldemar Hickst sends a couple but neither look good enough on paper.
Curragh 13,50 The Highway Rat 30/1 e/w PP six places, betfair five places, 22/1 sky eight places Doncaster 15,45 Secret Beach 8/1 e/w WH and bet365 four places
It is Arc Trials Day at Longchamp and I think that we will almost certainly see the Arc winner today, although it may not actually win. The French have a habit of giving their horses a summer break and then coming to this fixture to get race fit for the big race in three weeks time. Just the five face the starter in the Prix Foy (1:33) and there is little between three of them in the ratings. If old boy Iresine wins then nobody will be looking for him in the Arc betting as he is missing parts of his anatomy that are required to enter. He is consistent at a variety of trips, winning the Prix Royal Oak (French St Leger) and this race two years ago and the Prix Ganay last year when he was second in this event. Continuous was fifth in the Arc last year after winning the St Leger and warmed up for this with an easy Group 3 win at The Curragh. What tactics Soumillon will have suggested to him in the absence of Moore are unknown. Feed The Flame won last year’s Grand Prix de Paris but was only eighth in the Arc (behind Continuous) but has yet to win in five attempts this term, including third in the Prix Ganay (Zarir second), a well beaten third in the Coronation Cup and second in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud (Iresine fourth, Zarir fifth). There is no point looking for Zarir or Sacred Spirit in the Arc betting – same reason as Iresine – and Sacred Spirit was only third in the Grand Prix de Deauville three weeks ago, which makes him look vulnerable here. The Prix Niel (3:40) for the three year olds sees six colts line up but only James Fanshawe’s Ambiente Friendly has seen a racecourse in a month. The form book implies that if we ignore his terrible run in the Juddmonte International over ten furlongs then he is probably the form pick based on his second in The Derby and his third in the Irish Derby at this trip. Jean-Claude Rouget’s Delius had quite a big reputation going into the Grand Prix de Paris but he failed to live up to it coming home third behind Sosie and Illinois, with non-stayer Tamfana fourth. I cannot think of any reason why Delius should reverse that two length beating given that neither horse has run since. All eyes will be on the unbeaten Look de Vega, winner of the Prix Du Jockey Club on only his third racecourse start and stepping up to the Arc distance for the first time here. The third home on June 2nd was Sosie, who subsequently won the Grand Prix de Paris; however, I still do not like the form of the French classic as the first four home were drawn 3-4-1-2 and the race was a mess, even though the Lerner colt won fair and square by a couple of lengths. I think that today will determine whether his next race is back here in three weeks or at Ascot on Champions’ Day. The other two runners in the field are German raiders trained by Waldemar Hickst. Wintertraum was well beaten in the German Derby, where stablemate Augustus was third, and was also well beaten in a ten furlong Group 1 at Munich, where subsequent Grand Prix de Deauville winner Quantanamera was fourth. Augustus has not been seen since the German Derby but obviously is the more likely of the two here on that form. The feature race on the card is the Group 1 Prix Vermeille (2:57), attracting a significant raiding party. The raiding party probably ensures that this will not be run at a married man’s gallop and end up in a sprint like most French races. With that in mind, quite a few of the outsiders can easily be dismissed. Birthe was second in a ten furlong Group 2 last time after only finishing seventh in a very suspect Prix de Diane, where Dare To Dream was fifth. Halfday was twelfth at Chantilly and comes here in first time blinkers but it is difficult to see why any of them should reverse running with the fourth that day Aventure, subsequent winner of the Prix de Pomone at this trip. Also in the field is Diane runner-up Survie, who subsequently won the Prix de Malleret over course and distance beating Mosaique. The actual Diane winner, Sparkling Plenty, went to Goodwood and finished third in the Nassau, beaten by Opera Singer. It is perfectly reasonable to expect both of those to be involved here. The step up in trip and how they run will affect their relative positions in the Arc betting. It is quite conceivable that Sparkling Plenty will be the better of the two of them today as she was never given any sort of a chance at Goodwood on quick ground. It is difficult to see Jessica Harrington’s Sea The Boss being here for anything but place black type as she won an ordinary five-runner Listed race at Naas and was more than three lengths behind Birthe in the Prix Alec Head. The British raiding party are all tied up on form: Emily Upjohn was third in the Yorkshire Oaks when last seen, having not won a race this term. Before that she was second in the Pretty Polly at The Curragh with Stay Alert behind in fifth but winner Bluestocking ahead. Emily Upjohn and Stay Alert were subsequently sixth and seventh in the Nassau, giving them no realistic chance with Opera Singer or Sparkling Plenty today. Bluestocking was pitched into the Juddmonte International against the boys but it is interesting to see that they have reached for the blinkers. The softer ground here should definitely be to her benefit and if the Juddmonte is ignored there is a good case for making her the form horse ahead of the two three year olds going an extra quarter of a mile. She is favourite with the British layers. I hope that Ralph Beckett’s filly wins but from a betting perspective I would look to one of the nine three year olds and two proven at the trip are Survie and Aventure.
Anyone want a banker for Arc weekend? This is Zarkava’s granddaughter Zarigana trotting up over Prix Marcel Boussac course and distance. Her mother is the Frankel mare Zarkamiya, Zarkava’s 2015 foal.
The Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh (15:35), a Group-1, Class-1, sprint over 5f, with 18-runners going to post, is about as tough as it comes to find the winner. Without further ado, however, will go for the 3YO Wootton Bassett colt, Bucanero Fuerte, who has a good a chance as any in the field to run a top-notch race. Irish traner, Adrian Murray, has managed to acquire the services of the accomplished jockey, David Egan, to ride his young colt. 8/1 top price in many places early-doors, on the ATR site. E/W best option.
Doncaster moving Wednesday’s card to Sunday does not make it any more appealing as a betting medium; and three of the pattern races at The Curragh have odds-on contenders from Ballydoyle where punters will be hoping not to get their fingers burned like they did with a couple of the Coolmore blue-bloods at Leopardstown. Fortunately for punters there is no Aidan, Joseph or Donnacha involvement in the big sprint at The Curragh and there is only one Irish horse in the first eight in the betting. As usual with any sprint, more than half the field have no chance on current form and are 20/1 and upwards in the betting. Most people will look for a horse that is going to be near the pace so that it will not be ‘unlucky in running’ as it gets stuck behind them. Having never run over the minimum trip, the inclusion of Matilda Picotte here is a mystery but it would be reasonable to expect her to try to make the running. Jasour won over five as a juvenile but has plied his trade this term over six and as a hold up horse I think this will be over before he gets going. He was behind Bucanero Fuerte at Haydock and that one is sure to come on for his first run in four months but he last ran over five when making a winning debut at this track as a juvenile. The second Clive Cox raider, Kerdos, won the Temple Stakes on soft ground and has been fifth on his two starts since, last time in the King George at Goodwood, where Believing was third. George Boughey’s filly subsequently finished second in the Nunthorpe, the key form pointer to today. Behind that day where Washington Heights, Makarova and Goodwood winner Big Evs. But in front was Archie Watson’s BRADSELL and I see little reason for that changing.
I don't understand how the going can be changed from good to soft after one race. If the clerk of the course can get it that wrong and chenge it that drastically on the reports from jockeys after the first race, shouldn't they just get someone to ride the course before stating the going. Race 1 still has the going stated as good on ATR but surely that is incorrect
