But we're sitting in 12th? Or was it 11th? I think the gradient of that graph is too steep given Wigan/Blackburn etc being determine to get relegated.
Being the mathematician that I am I love statistics! However, my only problem with this kind of ongoing scrutiny is that it can affect you psychologically both ways. I always remember Chase's plan for an immediate return to the Premiership was along the lines of picking up something like 8 points from every 5 games. How he wish he never came up with that idea!!! As soon as it became apparent that we were dropping below the needed points per game ratio he felt the full force of the fans fury! I know its just another way of looking at the campaign but all that really matters is that we are out clear of the drop after the final day of the season.
Just will do fine For that dear old line Is nowhere near ended just yet, And if we should dip Below for a bit I don´t think we´re needing to fret.
The line should follow the track of 18th place.Which at the moment is Bolton on 9 points from 12 games.If you project that to season end the result is 18th team on 28.5 points,making theoretically 29 points the lowest safe position.Of course things might change and at the moment Stoke City are the next worst side after Wigan and Blackburn.My feeling at the moment is 36 points will be safe. The best illustration of the statistical oddity of the 2011-12 season is this: You would expect a team that had 4:4:4 results after 12 games to occupy the exact centre of the league table.In fact that sequence this year would place you 8th.Norwich and WBA straddle the centre positions on 13 and 14 points respectively. If you do the same analysis for 2010-11 Aston Villa and WBA both had 16 points from 4:4:4 after 12 games and occupied 10th and 11th.
Quite right Robbie. I can see why the old cliche of "one game at a time" is rolled out so much by managers. If they reacted like us supporters they would never get anywhere. Mind you, personally I thought 40 was the target. So basically we are on target with 13 from 12. I also think we'll have a better indication after 6 more including the Fulham game. 10 points out of that lot would be nice.
Well, it can be argued quite plausibly that a figure lower than 40 will be enough this year. Could well be. What I think we can say is that 40 will definitely be enough!
