Statistical Comparisons Swansea V Cardiff

I dont post that much on here but there has been something that has been getting on my tits and I wanted to share and discuss with my fellow Jacks. and that is:

Is the constant praise that Cardiff seem to be getting Justified? And are we having a poor start like some may suggest.

To do this I decided to look at all the match statistics so far focusing on:
Total shots made, shots made on target, shots taken by opposition, shots on target by opposition and possession average to determine the performance of each team. And have come up with a performance score based on the total.

Results

Cardiff: Possession Av 46.13% Opposition 53.88% [Score -7.75]
Swansea: Possession Av 56.75% Opposition 43.25% [Score +13.5]

Cardiff: Total shots 84, opposition shots 143 [Score -59]
Swansea: Total shots 109, opposition shots 93 [score +16]

Cardiff: Shots on target 19, opposition 51 [Score -32]
Swansea: Shots on target 46, opposition 28 [score +18]

Cardiff: Goals scored 8, Conceded 15 [score -7]
Swansea: Goals scored 12, conceded 11 [score +1]

Total Points:

Cardiff: -105.75
Swansea: +48.50
​

Ok there may be other variables that could be argued, but looking at the statistical facts I will say Cardiff are being massively overrated and have been riding on luck a bit and statistically we seem to be preforming very well and just need a little more luck on our side.

Also I also would like to point out that the statistics can quiet our critics who say our style is boring and that we tend to keep pointless possession!!!!!!

Discuss!!!!!!!!

 

Surprised to see us have 46 shots on target and only have 28 on target against us. Especially when you consider we have played 5 of the top 8!
People say we have had a bad start and they have done well, but in reality what is a good start for them would be considered poor by our standards. With the quality we have in our team our expectations are higher than they have ever been. They are playing simply for survival, we are looking at pushing on for top 8.

 

Its even worse for Kairdiff because this should be a -7 : Cardiff: Goals scored 8, Conceded 15 [score -5]

Lets hope this form continues on Nov 3rd!

 

They are down to 17th tonight and I think it will get steadily worse............

 

Yea i was surprised by some of the stats (which was all taken from match reports on the bbc website if you wanna check)
A top 8 finish would be awesome and is above my expectations! My expectations this season is a good run in Europe and avoid a relegation battle!

 

We have had two full seasons at this level with the nucleus of the same players from the first season.We also had the advantage of playing football regardless of what some may believe gave us positive results that style took a lot of teams by surprise and this has given us another advantage over cardiff who play football but with no substance.
I don't believe we've had a bad start just not played to our usual standards but because of our small amount of experience at this level we know how to react and change to suit ,There are fine margins at this level between winning and losing and the games we've lost are not because we were poor but by " individual " errors .imo

 

True and will be edited

 

Classic!!!!

 

Good work on the stats, mate.

I've been sick to death of that lot trying out-stat us by (for example) showing we play more long balls than them - forgetting that we now have Shelvey in our ranks who mixes it up a fair bit. They even tried to imply on their board that we play 'hoofball'!

But to be fair to them these stats shouldn't surprise anyone at all. This is our third season and we've improved year on year. This is their first season; they don't play an attractive passing game; they're pretty toothless up front and have been incredibly fortunate so far apart from that first Chelsea goal on Saturday when it finally ran out for them. The best you can say is that they work hard. They have a box of frogs owner who doesn't understand the first thing about the game or the people who follow it and who is having, and will continue to have a detrimental effect on the team. I'll be amazed if their Manager stays the course.

I still see them and Palace for the drop but I fully accept that may be premature. I also think Poyet will get Sunderland organised and they will pull clear. Time will tell.

 

I will stick by one of my original tips and say stoke will join palace, think Cardiff may scrape it in 15th/16th there again far too early to tell

 

forgot to ask - is there a stat goals scored/conceded at set pieces?

 

Their squad cost more than ours as well. £45m v £34 (£39m if Ki included).



Here's a team we could put out.

Tremmel
Rangel Williams Davies Taylor
Tiendalli Britton Canas Dyer
Pozuelo
Vasquez

Total cost around £1m

 

Good enough , but perhaps a little light in midfield and up front ?

 

These stats are significant and if you could factor in a multiplier or weighting for the difference in opposition level then that may make the disparity even more remarkable. It will be very interesting to see these stats in another couple of weeks and at the half way mark.

 

I will now keep the stats updated and from the same source to keep things consistent.I found the results interesting and satisfying!

 

Bony, think he was pointing out that compared to the price of their squad we could put out an 11 that only cost £1million between them and they would still be too good for that lot

 

They'll accuse you of being obsessed with Cardiff for producing stats in response to their stats about Swansea.

 

The only comeback they have is that we are obsessed. They have nothing else to go on

 

Interesting stuff from our resident statistician, I'm impressed, though end of December will show the clearer picture, and I fully expect Kairdiff to be rock bottom by then, with Tintan putting on his shooting boots!.....................

 

That's a very real possibility