Sovereign Stakes – Salisbury, Thursday

Tomorrow witnesses the counties only Group race of the year so I thought I’d have a good old look at the event and the participants contained within.

First run in 2000 The Sovereign Stakes has been most profitable for the stables of the Hannon’s and old boy Andy Balding with each achieving 3, I say 3, victories (the latter has supplied the last 2 winners). Jockey wise Dane O’Neill and Jim Fortune are the most prolific saddle monkeys with both notching 2 successes. Meanwhile, 4YO’s have won the most renewals (7 out of 13), only once in the past 10 seasons has the winner started bigger than odds of 6/1, 3 out of the last 6 winners have been berthed in stall 3 and Cape Cross has sired 2 out of the last 4 winners. Now worth a total of £75,000 it is Salisbury’s most valuable ever race.

Concentrating on the 2013 renewal 6 runners have been declared (which is disappointing considering 21 were entered at the 5 day stage) and they are -

Afsare – the highest rated animal on official figures Afsare has had an aversion to the stalls in the past but when he consents to enter them is a most useful horse. A dual Listed winner arguably his best runs came last summer when runner-up in both the Group 2 York Stakes and the Grade 1 Arlington Million. Afsare’s 2nd placing to Mandour at Sandown, last time out, now reads very well as the 4th home that day won a Group 3 at the weekend whilst at ‘Glorious’ Goodwood the 3rd place finisher, from Sandown, was just touched off in similar company. Steps back to a mile here but I can’t see that being a concern and he looks sure to be a leading player.

Boom and Bust – despite being a 6YO is proving most progressive and was a close 3rd in Group 2 company at ‘Glorious’ Goodwood last month. Is yet to win outside of maiden or handicap company but recent efforts indicate that Boom and Bust could, by the end of the term, be up to taking a race of this nature. May be vulnerable to a couple of potentially pacier rivals here though.

Fulbright – won 8 races for old boy Mark Johnston, including a Group 2, but has yet to oblige since being transferred to Godolphin. Following 4 races (which included 3 placed efforts) at Meydan Fulbright’s return effort on these shores, last month, saw him finish a disappointing last up at Doncaster. Has drawn ‘lucky’ stall 3 but I doubt that will be enough to see him win this event.

Highland Knight – represents the stable who have won the last 2 renewals of the Sovereign Stakes and Highland Knight, himself, went close in the 2012 edition in finishing 3rd beaten less than a length. In fact last term was a richly rewarding one for the old boy as he won 3 races, including a Group 2 in Germany. Finishing runner-up in his last 2 Group race heats proves that Highland Knight retains all his ability and can be expected to be in the front rank pushing for a stable hat-trick.

Professor – has a high win/runs ratio in that he’s won 5 out of 9 including 3 this term. Is the only course winner, in the field, following a Listed win at Salisbury in June (Professor’s third successive victory), but subsequently was somewhat disappointing in a Group 2 at ‘Glorious’ Goodwood – Boom and Bust was 1.75 lengths in front of him on that occasion. Needs to step up on that effort but has clear chances on his earlier winning efforts.

Snowboarder – won 3 races as a 2YO and obliged on his return from Meydan when taking a handicap off a perch of 102 at Newmarket, last month. Was somewhat unlucky in his follow-up effort at ‘Glorious’ Goodwood as he was hampered at a crucial stage but still plugged on to finish 3rd in that Group 3 event. Is however the lowest rated on official figures and will need to step up on what he has shown to date to figure here.

Conclusion – I would take AFSARE to oblige given his proven form at this level and beyond. His effort at Sandown last time now looks very good and he has the capability to oblige here before stepping up in class once again. The placings can be obtained by Highland Knight and Professor, who steps up to a mile for the first time, but I would regard Boom and Bust as no back number and he should push them both very close.

Anyone agree??? Or will the counties biggest prize go elsewhere?!?

 

there is rain about too Barney just to complicate matters ....

 

I shall put my name towards Highland Knight if i had to SBC...

 

We know that the ground in Wiltshire is now Good as it rained on the watered Good To Firm ground. This could have quite an impact on the race.

Afsare (11/4) has been campaigned over ten furlongs all season and now drops back to a mile, which is enough of a question mark to deter me.

Highland Knight (7/2) has not been seen since May so punters that are away from the track are expected to take his fitness on trust. Although the trainer is in reasonable form, is the horse good enough to win this fresh? The betting may indicate if it has been laid out for the race.

Professor (9/2) is an unknown quantity at this trip and is strictly speaking held on form by Boom And Bust (8/1) on their meeting at Goodwood last time out over seven furlongs.

Snowboarder (11/4) needs to be ridden closer to the pace here like his penultimate start rather than like his latest third at Goodwood, but that Group 3 form does look like the best recent form on display and he gets weight for age from the older horses and is the selection.