Following on from last nightâs debate I have shown below some stats for Sven. I am not anti him and don't believe a managerial merry go-round helps anyone but we have to decide if he is the man for the job. His tinkering and really annoying team selections with his 'fav's' really annoy me. He only has a 2 year contract and I reckon if things don't look up remarkably and he gets a better offer by Christmas he'll be off - equally I think our board will think the same. Stats based on a 10 game basis and rounded up: In his first 10 games Sven got 17 pts - This average for the season would give us 78 pts His next 10 we won 20 pts - This would give us 92 points for the season His next 10 we won 14 points - average of 64 for the season If we look at his 10 final games of last season he got 15 points - 69 for the season After his first 9 this season we have 13 points - 66 for the season I then looked at 2nd place and 6th place in the championship for the last 3 seasons and averaged them out: 2nd place average = 86 points (84, 91 and 83 points) 6th place average = 73 points (75, 70 and 74 points) So, as a snap shot his first 10 games in charge would get us into the play off's and his next 10 games would get us up automatically. After this it doesn't look so good. Yes, a different team, yes a settling in period but he is going to have to up the ante to get us anywhere near a play off place, and as for automatic it is going to take an almighty run. I certainly think we have a group of players capable of doing so, but is the system and formation right? Stats are stats at the end of the day and football is unpredictable, but football is also a business and stats form most business decisions.
This is a totally different season, last year we had a whole bunch of Loanees, who at the end of the day, don't get paid any more for whatever position we finish in, its just a case of "so long and thanks for all the fish". This year we have no loanees, plenty of faces that want to get to the premier league, and if anything we will get stronger, and can't see us dipping like we did last season.
Stats can say whatever anyone wants to make them say. They only usually tell part of a story. We had a bad start with 2 home defeats. Take those out of the equation and look at the league position which shows the form of opposition, and what do stats say then ? Anything we want them to ! 46 games in the season and the improvement has been obvious.
I wouldn't call requiring six points to put us in the play-offs as an almighty run. We have just drawn two difficult away games, therefore have dropped four points in two games yet we're still only six points off top!! Don't think it'll be long before we're up there!!
No 6 points to the top isnt a lot to make up, but there are about 9 other teams who would think the same. They are not games in hand. The games we have played do include struggling teams too, Bristol, Barnsley and Forest etc. I agree stats can be taken both ways but I bet if you asked a selection of charimen up and down the land this is what they use, as does every manager including Sven, he talks about it often.
I honestly think Sven is loving his time here and I also dont think he will be going anywhere!!! I've got no doubt in my head he is the Man for the job, by the end of the season we will be up there 8 out of 10 people know only a complete twat would use statistics (Sorry I couldnt resist)
Only stats I care about is that after 9 games we are 3 points off the playoffs and 6 off the autos. Not as brilliant as I was expecting but good enough for me not to grumble atm - my minimum expectations were no more then 5 points off the autos at 11 games. Don't worry about our current position as it doesn't really matter until after xmas.
The best stats for me - playing three of the top 6 and not conceding = two of those games away from home. We're not losing the kinds of games we have ALWAYS lost in the past. Forest away - unlucky not to win. Cardiff away - a gnat's whisper from winning. Middlesboro away - seeing Beckford's missed chance today, I think we could have nicked that one too. Brighton and Southampton - beat them at home. We have Derby at home next who I think we'll beat, then a run of Birmingham, Watford and Millwall who are all very beatable. I expect the mood of the fans to change over the course of the next four matches.
Seems to me the final run in last season was against the types of sides we have just played. Last season we lost those games whereas this recent run while not yeilding many wins has also seen us solid. we still lack that killer instinct that we all knew was missing before the end of the window and that is all that is stopping us from being higher than we currently are. Nugent back and with hopefully a fit Beckford could see Derby being the first side of many to really be given a lesson.
