So You Think's Oz Form.

[Cyclonic]

Despite the lack of numbers, one of the most interesting races this weekend, is the Eclipse Stakes. Most seem to be of the opinion that the event is a two horse race between the Derby/Arc winner Workforce and the Australian interloper So You Think. Whilst in the end, this may be true, I wouldn’t discount the wonderful filly Snow Fairy. The duel Oaks winning Princess, consolidated that form with a slashing victory in the Hong Kong Cup, over this trip last December. There are those who are willing to write off all form outside the UK, but this for mine is a huge mistake. There is no need here to rehash the past performances of Workforce. He’s in this race right up to his back teeth. Confront, fresh off a win in a handicap at York, is owned and trainer by the same interests as Workforce, and is probably there to play the role of path finder. The only other runner in the race is Sri Putra, who is coming off a gallant but well beaten third behind Rewilding and So You Think last time out, should find these too hot for him.

The above is just a quick summary of the Eclipse, as I see it. This article though, is more concerned with offering up an insight into the Australian performances of So You Think, so as to hopefully give the UK punter a slight leg up, one way or the other. For those thinking of taking a hit at the Eclipse, the following information will hopefully be of some benefit. Those who like the chances So You Think may find succour here, while those who like Workforce, Snow Fairy or either of the other two runners, may find the proof here, to reinforce their beliefs. The track ratings between the UK and Australia create a small problem, but as we all know, the tracks in Oz tend to be harder and faster. I don’t know how to align these differences, so we are going to have to do the best we can.

So You Think stepped out for the first time late in the two year old season, for his only run as a baby. In a no metropolitan win event over seven furlongs on a dead track at Rosehill, he came from ninth early to fourth on the corner. He won most impressively. The stable knew they had something special, so he was put away for three and a half months, then reproduced in the Ming Dynasty, a $100,000 seven furlong race. He was fifth to the bend on a good track before finishing second in the Listed event.

At his third race he was dropped into the G3 Gloaming Stakes. Starting twos on, he swamped them from mid field. The last three were run in sub 34. He was then sent to Melbourne for the Guineas over the mile. His first left handed race was a disappointment for many. He was last on the bend, but finished fifth, beaten less than five lengths by Starspangledbanner. The proof that he raced well below his best came next race when he beat Manhattan Rain by a couple of lengths in the 10f G1 Cox Plate at Moonee Valley, a horse who’d finished in front of him in the Guineas. He’d gone from being beaten in the G1 three years old event to smashing the best all age horses in the land. He was taken straight to the front. He ran then ragged. He finished this preparation when run down over the mile in the G1 Emirates at Flemington after trying to make all. Five of his six starts had been on good tracks.

294 days later he was back. In the 7f G2 Memsie in Melbourne, he sat on the pace, hit the front at the two and beat Whobegotyou and Shoot Out in slow going. He won his next two open company starts, the G1 9f Underwood Stakes and the G1 Caulfield Stakes at 10f, both on good tracks, both at Caulfield. He won both in a canter. Two weeks later he lined up in his second Cox Plate. History shows that he again made the race a one act affair. On a dead track, he beat Zipping and Whobegotyou, after being second in running. He hit the front two out and was too good. He then won the G1 Mackinnon over 10f on a dead surface, before lining up three days later in the Melbourne Cup.

Whether this has been of any help, I don't know. I do however fear the prospect of a pace maker. I should imagine the Stoute yard will be out to drag the small field along at a good clip, which they hope will play to Workforce's strengths. It will be a great race. Again, I wouldn't readily dismiss Snow Fairy.

Good luck all.

 

[greatpilsudski]

cyclonic,

ive got a few questions about the tracks,going and distance that so you think as been racing over at moonee valley,flemington and caulfield.

firstly the tracks, moonee valley is a tight 1m1f round with a stiff final 4f?this is what the racing post states about this course.a oz webiste im looking at shows the 1m2f(2040m) races are run around 4 turns with a straight finish of less then 1f?

flemington seems bigger.there seems to be a 3f run from the 1m2f start to the first bend,then they seem to be runing around a big easy bend until the home straight of 2 1/4 f? the track is almost 1m4f round so his more galloping in nature?

caulfied seems tight(1m2f round) also, like moonee valley, but without the stiff finish?they sem to run around 3 bends for the 1m2f distance with the first bend being a slight bend whilst the 2nd bend seems longer and lasts for about 2f?the home straight is about 1 3/4 f?

when i see a horse who as won so many races as he as ,im interested also in the ones he as lost and why.it doesnt take much to realise hes best at 1m2f.however ,i also see twice at top level he lost over 1 mile,is mile too short or was it other factors? when he came 2nd as fav in the 1m emirates stakes at flemington on a good surface,the time of 1m33.98 to me indicates fast going,im going on the assumption that your tracks ride a grade faster than ours, i.e good in oz is gdfm in the uk,gdsf in oz is good in the uk etc.

i cant seem to get the form comments of his emirates stakes 2nd?was he in the lead coming into the straight then got done to the line or was he chasing the eventful winner well before the home bend?

he then won a 7f race,a group 2,but on soft.sugesting he had the speed previously for the mile,now what undone him over the mile,the going?cause it was at flemington?

at caulfield before his first cox plate win he came 5th over 1m to starspangled banner on good going,time was 1m35.69 ,suggesting genuine good ground at least.he was beaten though by the furthest distance hes ever got beat by and worse position hes ever filled.he as ran 3 more times at caulfield over 7,9 and 10f and remained unbeaten at that track after.

in the cox plate first time he clocked 2m3.9 on good,quick time for that distance and on a track that as a stiff finish(if this is true btw?) that would suggest fast going indeed.his 2nd cox plate came in a much slower time of 2m7.45 ,going was gdsf and ther the time suggests it was genuine gdsf that day.

he also won at femington after on 1m2f gdsf,time i would say more like good going.

now at ascot,with just under 3f home straight(it took around 33 secs in the prince of wales stakes),he was worn down close home.sandown as a even longer straight of just under 4f (took twice over 45 secs in last years eclipse) ,so with his outstanding form at caulfield and moonee valley,better then at flemington,could it be the longer the home straight ,the slimmer his chances?

i prevously thought the going was a factor,but it seems over a mile or less he needs it testing to make it more of a stanima test,but over 1m2f,any going suits.

if this was run at chester,i think he would win hands down,but this more galloping tack with a massive home straight to me will totally suit workforce more than it will so you think.it seems once so you think gets to the last bend,he as to make his move,hes used to racing like that ,and as we saw at ascot ,he probably went to soon consdiering the length of the home straight.he as amazing accerleration ,but for him to win,i think heffermen will need to hold on to him till about the 2f pole,but will so you think fight the jockey into wanting to go on once he gets into the clear around the last bend?????

as we have saw of workforce at epsom with its 3 1/4f finish and recently at sandwon,once he gets to the home striaght,his finish is prolonged more like a stayer and i certainly think so you think will outdo him in a speed test,thats almost certain,but if confront does his job properly,i can only see workforce winning this.

 

[Islanderpei]

Cyc thanks for the article a good read as norm it will be an interesting race.
Greatpils, excellent post,full of info,i like the way you study a race,
Its CANADA DAY today

 

[Cyclonic]

The Valley is a renowned front runners track Gpss, with as you said a 1 furlong run in. The thing about this course though, is that the pace is cranked up from a long way out. Have a look at some of the great Cox Plates of the past. Amazing. The times run around the Valley can't be compared with any other track. It's unique.

Flemington is probably the best track in the country. It gives all horses a chance if good enough. It also has a straight six which hosts the premier sprint in the country, the Newmarket handicap.

Caulfield fill the game between Flemington and the Valley. It's a strange old place. When it comes to the big G1 races, it's often the dyed in the wool champions who stand up here. maybe it's because the pace is usually genuine around this place, as it is at the valley. The horse for reasons i don't know, just didn't fire in the Guineas. The stable was shocked. It was his first left handed go, so maybe that was the problem. But who knows. maybe he just had an off day. In the Emirates over the mile, he charged away and tried to defy them. But the run in at Flemington is a killer. He ended up hitting the wall at the 100m pole. Maybe he only has a furlong and a half in him when flat strap. Who knows. There is an old well heeded saying about Flemington. If you feel you are in the race with a shout, "don't let go until the clock tower." It's about 300m out. Even champions have been run down here for going too early.

His first Cox Plate win, was a sensation. He just tore the heart out of the field with a sustained pace. he was on fire that day. Even on a good track his last 600 was slower than his second win on a dead track. In the first he went like a scalded cat and tore the fight out of the opposition. In the second, he didn't lead. Others tried to set a more moderate pace, hoping to out sprint him, but his turn of pace was just too good for them.

The longer the straight, the weaker the chance is a good point mate. But the secret to the race is just when they commit the horse. If he'd been held for another 100m in the POW, he'd have got home, I believe. The running of the race tomorrow is the secret. He needs to sit on Confront and ease past him when that horse throwns it in. If they try to a 3 furlong run in at pace, he's in trouble. Workforce won't have the pace to take it up after Confront folds, that job will probably fall to SYT. He MUST hold fire. This is where the race will won or lost.

He'd never be beaten over 10f around Catterick. But the stiff run in tomorrow, is not in his favour, it suits Workforce and Snow Fairy. Anyways mate, I've enjoyed the chat. Be lucky.

 

[Bustino74]

Great objective stuff. A lot will depend on how well Confront is ridden. Too fast and they'll ignore him, too slow and he'll set it up for the opposition. Bring back Jimmy Lindley.

Just got back from Sha Tin and talked about Snow Fairy. Agree she should not be discounted.