4 races gone.. end of the long haul races and we now come into europe. Seems logical that we are at a point to seperate the best from the rest so who will win this year?
hamilton has been the most consistent so far, and i think he'll keep that up as well as winning a few races to aid his bid.
Until yesterday I thought the McLaren boys were in with a good change along with Raikkonen and Rosberg. Now that McLaren appear to be in self destruct mode and Red Bull are looking like they might dominate again, I'd say it will be Vettel. I can't see it being Webber as I don't believe he has equality within the team. Otherwise, it's still too early to tell.
I have stuck with who I thought would win at the beginning of the season: Alonso. He is only 10 points of the lead when he has practically had a midfield car so far this season, so when Ferrari get this **** together (which I think they will at Mugello) then think what Alonso will be able to do in a car that has race winning pace.
I think its going to come down to Vettel and Hamilton in the end. I think Button also has a good chance but I feel theres something up with the McLaren this year which is hampering him. Hamiltons been getting the job done and even after a epic fail from McLaren he came out with points and what from the outside seemed a clear head ready for the next race. Vettel looks to have worked out the new Red Bull and will always have the quali advantage to help him in the race. Because I want a different winner.... 40% Hamilton 30% Vettel 15% Button 10% Alonso 5% the rest.
Vettel. They've made a step forward with the RB8 and despite a difficult start he still leads the championship. The others didn't punish Red Bull enough for a sloppy start. Same with Alonso, should be dead and buried by now with the Ferrari being so bad, but he's hung in there, the next three weeks make or break his season. I don't fancy Ferrari to turn it round leaving Vettel to take his third championship. A lot could hinge on the double DRS. If someone like Lotus get it on their car early they'd have the quickest car in quali and they already have a very good car in race trim, a couple of quick race wins would bring Kimi right into it. McLaren would be pretty hard to beat if they got it on their car as well.
I think Mclaren had their opportunity to win 3 of the 4 races and probably get One Two's in those three races. be it weather conditions, strategy, pit stops or driver issues they have failed to maximise their initial advantage - it at all there was one. Instead of JB & Lewis being on 60 points plus and leading Vettle by a race win margin at least they are no bogged down amongst teams that are all capable of stringing some race wins together. I have hence plumped for Red Bull (given that their car development has made the difference in the past) and Vettle - With the best car and out in front he is more likely to pick up the points.
I could give you a better answer after the Spanish GP (because at the moment I'm making assumptions about some important things), but for now I'll have to stick with my pre-season prediction: Alonso wins, Vettel second. A competitive car is the only thing Ferrari need to win the championship - everything else (Alonso, pitstops, strategy) has been great. Other teams have better cars but are failing in other areas. Whitmarsh should write a book titled 'How to lose a Championship'. What Ferrari desperately need is a lot more rear downforce, which they should find with their updated car in Mugello. Even if @InsideFerrari denies it, they will be changing their radiator position, copying Sauber's exhaust and possibly bringing a new chassis as well. They've been working on this update for months, and while it won't turn their car into a dominant winner, it should significantly close the gap to the frontrunners. Last year Alonso was 52 points behind in the championship after four races, because Vettel dominated while others were fighting amongst themselves. This year, no car is dominant - so despite being sixth or seventh fastest Alonso is only 10 points behind in the championship. From this position, a comeback is definitely a strong possibility. This is all assuming the Mugello update is a big step forward - if it does work, I expect the championship fight to be between Alonso and Vettel, with Alonso winning by about 30 points. If the update doesn't work, I expect Vettel to win the championship by 50-60 points.
Getting a fast car is one thing, making sure it's reliable and doesn't chew it's tyres up is another. RBR and Lotus look to be the only teams to have all of these factors at the moment as they can challenge qualifying and keep up the race pace most of the way without issue. McLaren are next in this combined area followed by Mercedes then Sauber in my opinion. Fernando for me is the biggest threat to Seb this year, the new car could be a game changer for Fernando this season and he has come back from further to challenge a WDC. He also looks the best he has ever been in Ferrari which is worrying as he has won a race in that "thing". Though trying to take on Seb this year might be a bit more difficult as he is 2 years older and a double WDC himself, Seb has learnt a lot since his 2010 days. It was almost a 100 point gap between Seb and Fernando last year after Canada, I don't think that will be the same case this year so I'm going to remain cautious with this gap. The mugello test coming up will help close the gap I reckon, but they will still need to sort out that diffuser over a couple of races likely just as RBR had to do, just to hit the sweet spot. They'll make a push but if it isn't big enough I think the gap will become too big to come back from even for Fernando. Lewis I reckon will be let down by his team this year BIG TIME! Every time he gets in a good mental state McLaren throw a spanner in the works to piss him off. The overtake on Nico for me displayed his frustration already getting to him, he knows they should of had a gap after these 4 races and he should of been looking good for the Euro tour but sadly for him, quite the opposite. To make things worse Seb capitalised on it in 1 race from being 17 points behind and is now leading the WDC with a car with a exhaust diffuser setup better than his own. So will errors start to creep in, thinking that Seb will run away with it now?
I dont thinks it fair to say that. One week ago it was mercedes who were the tyre & speed kings, before that Mclaren. The lack of a pattern so far is confusing to say the least. Only Red Bull and McLaren have shown real form at more than one race. That said i agree that Vettel will win it. Red Bull have come back to form at the right time and it was it was he not Webber who got the job done once the car became a race winner. Other contenders are the McLarens obviously. They should have scored so many more points. Pit stop errors for Hamilton, Buttons DNF and Malaysia disaster. They should be one two by a distance, but they're not. You just sense they're in the proccess of throwing it away. Alonso. I dont see it. McLaren have allowed him to stick with the pack, but the pace isn't there and the next upgrade will have to be something special to get them back in time, because eventually they will drop Alonso. I would also argue its easier for Alonso to hustle a worse car ahead of the likes of Grosjean, Schumacher and Maldonado than it is Button, Hamilton and Webber. Lotus had a great race in Bahrain but have been average otherwise, same for Mercedes and china. Its all up in the air but you get the feeling that Red Bull are the only ones with the consistancy.
No way have Mclaren got a car that is anywhere near as dominant as the RB6. But, there are worse teams/years to compare them against. themselves 2007 would be one.
I never considerd it spurs, but the fastest car out of the block was McLaren and they had a chance to pull an early gap against RBR for 4 races we have been through and it all went tits up. It's very like 2010 to a degree, as RBR had the same issue by being unable to pull a gap against McLaren and Ferrari before they caught up because of reliability issues.
Yes i see what you mean. I do agree with him that 2007 may be a better example though as in 2010 Red Bull had enough of an advantage to end up winning anyway. McLaren dont and need to sort it out.
