simonsig

Hi gang
I've noticed SIMONSIG has shorted up dramatically for the Supreme Novices and drifted a tad for the Neptune.
I've backed him for the Neptune.
Does anybody know where he runs ?
ta in advance
Wuby

 

Wuby - there was a big move last week sometime, he went out to 19 on betfair for the Neptune and every high st bookie shortened him to 10s for the Supreme.
Zen is your man as he's been following the horse/market closely

 

I was at Henderson's on the 20th January. He said then that Simonsig would almost certainly run in the Neptune because he thought he had all the pace in the world but the stamina to get the 2m5f comfortably. He was also very bullish about beating Fingal Bay should they face each other again, citing that they had an explanation for his Sandown defeat. The quote was "He'll definitely beat that Hobbs horse". They clearly think he is very good indeed and the racecourse evidence would support that.

I was very keen on him before going to Seven Barrows and was even more so afterwards. I fancied him for the Supreme primarily but with Henderson's assertion that the Neptune was the target, I backed him accordingly for that.

However, since then, there has been a growing thought in the media and on Twitter that the Supreme is his for the taking. I was quite adamant when I went to Seven Barrows that the Supreme was the race for him. They agreed to a certain extent in that he quite obviously has the pace for 2m. However, their argument was that he would also stay 2m5f as well so there was therefore no reason to drop him back in trip. It could be the case that they are starting to think that the Supreme is looking a weaker race and the obvious target as a result. That was certainly my initial thought.

Since my visit he has been put up for the Supreme by Paul Kealy in the Weekender, he has been given a very bullish mention on Racing UK's Half Term Report for the Supreme and it appears that every man and his dog on Twitter thinks he has only to turn up on March 13th to collect the opening contest. It appears the bookies have reacted in a similar way. Back in January he was available at 14/1 for both races. Now he is available at 16/1 for the Neptune and only William Hill are now holding a double figure price for the Supreme. He is 8/1 joint favourite in many places.

That probably doesn't help a lot because all it says is that "I don't know and nor does anybody else" as far as his target goes. All I can say is that Nicky said he was headed for the Neptune on January 20th. The markets and general discussion since then, particularly in the last week or so, seem to suggest that the Supreme is now at the top of the list. However, I don't think any firm conclusions can be drawn at this stage.

Pricewise will be putting up his selection for the Supreme in tomorrow's Racing Post so that might tell us more. Simonsig has been shortened in most places but there are 'blues' for Galileo's Choice, Trifolium, Tetlami and Vulcanite also. I would suggest that either Simonsig (Segal and Kealy seem to agree on a fair bit) or Vulcanite would be the most likely suggestions. I am hoping that it isn't Simonsig. If it is, then I think we can expect him to be clear favourite tomorrow.

In short, I don't think anybody knows where he is headed 100% but he is still terrific value for both races. I can assure you that I would be lumping on between now and the Festival if I knew for certain, especially if he is going to the Supreme. A big winner in the first race is always a nice way to start the meeting.

 

Re Simonsig and the ‘Supreme Novices’ don’t forget people that it is now a massive 20 years since Mr Henderson trained the winner of the Festival opener. Something of a ‘bogey’ race for him and even the great Binocular got beat in it for him.

Meanwhile, I would be very surprised if Segal doesn’t tip up Vulcanite tomorrow. He is a huge admirer of this horse and unless he believes that the price has now gone I can’t see him going for anything else.

 

Simonsig is currently entered in the Morebattle Hurdle, a 2m Novice Hurdle at Newbury on Friday and a 2m Novice Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. Both races would tend to suggest the Supreme is the primary target, certainly the Newbury and Ascot entries. Barry Geraghty is down to ride him at Kelso but I'd be surprised if Nicky wanted to take him all that way for his prep. Furthermore the race is over 2m2f and you would have thought that at least 1 run at 2m before the Supreme would be essential. All the market noises do suggest that the Supreme is the target.

Agree re Vulcanite Sir Barney. He looks the obvious choice and his price has collapsed accordingly. However, Simonsig has still shortened dramatically the last few days and there is still some 20/1 about Vulcanite at the moment. Is it the Bookies anticipating or could Segal put up two again though?

 

Simonsig seems more likely for the Supreme based on the 'vibes'. Looks like they want to avoid another defeat by Fingal Bay in the Neptunes

 

Have to say Simonsig looks to have strong form but just cos he travelled so well against Fingal Bay doesnt mean he has the gears to win a Supreme either.

He is classy, but to win the Supreme you have to travel well but more imprtantly quicken AND stay. He still has a lot to prove but he looks a very good horse.

 

Doubt he'll run at Newbury Oddy. More likely to go to Ascot I would think.

 

The poor man. Don't we all feel for him?!

Luckily Simonsig is easily the best.

 

I should also add that he is only becoming a hype horse because I have been banging his drum very loudly for a few weeks now. I think if you take into account the wider media the 'hype' is not as great as it appears on this forum!

 

Terrible from you there Oddy.

 

I didn't think it worthy of comment.

 

Simonsig runs in the Morebattle. I didn't expect that to be honest it must be said but really looking forward to see him on the track again.

Henderson did say his target is still not set in stone. He is hoping this will tell them which way to go. The article in the Telegraph quotes Henderson as saying that he's a point winner over 3m but works like a 2miler at home.

 

I think the top two in the betting for the Neptune will be hard to beat, Fingal Bay looks a horse with a massive future and you can't not have been impressed with the way Boston Bob gave 10lbs and a beating to another good horse in Make Your Mark last time out. I think the Neptune is the only option for Simonsig, Hes not quick enough for the Supreme as he was well beat by Fingal Bay at Sandown and he's a horse that looks like he will need further in time. He may run into a place at Cheltenham but hes certainly all hype for Me...

 

Have you seen the Sandown race Istabraq? Simonsig travelled all over Fingal Bay, looking by far the better horse for probably 2m3f of the 2m4f race. I fail to see how he is not quick enough for the Supreme because he was 'well beat' by Fingal Bay at Sandown. If anything that performance showed that he is all about speed and should be dropped to 2m because it could easily be argued that he didn't get home on the ground.

It is impossible to say that he isn't fast enough for the Supreme on that evidence. Everything about the race points to the exact opposite.

 

I have seen the race Zen. All his form is over further so if he's as quick as the Nicholson team think he is why hasn't he been racing at 16/17 furlongs? He didn't find enough off the bridle against Fingal Bay who kept finding more for an horse travelling so well in the race aswell that would be a big doubt in My mind over 2 and half miles nevermind 2 miles at the business end at Cheltenham when faced with the hill. Im not really buying the ground theory either espcially when hes won on soft ground twice in Ireland. He looks more of a stayer but just ran into a horse a little bit better at Sandown and I don't see the form being reversed at Cheltenham. Just My opinion...