You are sitting in Shorts chair and its December 1st with the slump reversed. We are 12th with a few wins, draws and defeats. Our form and results have been OK, not spectacular so no big new contract for Bruce but steady away so not a big Bruce must go either. You have a kitty of around 15mil made up of Gyan cash and the left over from summer and you can see a decent if not spectacular second half to the season, a possible top 10 finish. Do you stick or bust? Stick and you have a manager you know, keep stability and can be fairly sure of a decent finish but you also know you could face the same problem in the summer and have the same decision to make. Bust and say lets try a different way, a new manager with a new direction and new ideas. You will get a fresh imputes and could well end up a place or two higher. But it could also mean a summer rebuild again, players sold and new ones brought in and maybe a brand new 3 year plan. There are obviously for and against in both options and dangers in both. Lets see if we can, without falling out, give some good arguments for both options because it could well be the scenario Short faces on December 1st.
With the scenario you describe it's obvious isn't it? Heading for possibly only our fourth top ten finish in fifty years!!! Stick.
but then the question would be, is it now time to kick on and try to build a new 3 year plan looking at a top 6 finish and a manager who could take us there?
Syd up till not to long ago all we wanted was a good run in the premiership without relegation every other year. Then we wanted mid table obscurity, that's what we have now for me. Europe is the next step but it doesn't have to come this year. Anything above tenth and we are on track. Slow-Steady-Sustained-Improvement.
Interesting. Personally, I doubt he will get to Christmas before the crowd turn but if he can only limp along, shoring up holes until then, we simply cannot risk a second half of the campaign slump that would finish us off. Bruce has a track record of 3 consecutive plummets down the league between Jan and May. His saving grace each season out of the past 3 has been a good start. A poor start this time and that would be relegation, which is something Short just cannot ignore or allow. If Bruce miraculously turns the season on its head and goes on a winning run up to Christmas, which sees us on 25 points or more, it will be hard to get shot of him, even with the spectre of that slump on the horizon. Short will be caught between a rock and a hard place as to whether he should be given any more money but you couldn't deny Bruce will have shown something of the fighter to achieve this and should be kept on for that. If we dont win a minimum of at least 2 games in the next 3 (remember 2 of them are at home to Stoke and WBA, not Man Utd and City and the 3rd is away to Norwich) he should be given the sack right then and a new man appointed. We simply cannot allow the season to deteriorate up to Christmas because the worse the situation, the less likely you are to attract a decent replacement. After all, why would a decent manager want to come in when all is lost only to be in the championship next season. Better the deed is done early enough for a good replacement to have the time to access the squad and a transfer window to bring in his people. The worst case scenario and one which we as SAFC fans are well versed to is the last 10 game rescue mission, where we have dillied and dallied about the managers position until all is lost and a hapless caretaker is brought in to perform an impossible miracle (which they almost never do). However, realistically as I see it, Short has possible 2 options. 1) Call things to a halt and sack Bruce in 3 games time, if we havent won the required 2 out of 3 and bring in a replacement that can have the time and finances to kick start the season. A win, a draw and a loss simply isn't good enough now with 2 home games against clubs outside of the top 6 established ones. We have got to stop this home rot and show Bruce can motivate the team and get results at home. 1 win in 9 games is lamentable. 2) Give Bruce the rest of the season and all the money available in January, to recruit again and replace Gyan but then that decision has to be made now and an announcement made concerning it, otherwise the speculation surrounding the managers position will just overtake the team affairs from now until May. Its put up or shut up time for the manager, the board, the owner and the fans in the next 2 weeks IMO.
1 home win in 9 games is steady improvement? My good god I'd hate to see what you consider and failure?
Unlike you Cest I take form over a whole season. Not just little snippets to suit my argument. I'd love you to tell me our overall league position hasn't improved since Keane.
If that was the case I can't see Bruce going anywhere and I even agree with that. He'd get till the end of the season then you could have a look at how things have gone and if targets have been achieved, Short wants top 10. If Btuce got another top half finish then he'd deserve another year, anything less and I think Short will see the bigger picture and realise Bruce isn't the man to take us forward. As for January if the right player was available for the right price, always go for it, irrespective of whether the manager is guaranteed to be here next season. Do we realy think the likes of Brown, Oshea and Gardner would chuck the towel in just because Bruce got the push? All this said, I'm thinking much shorter term. I think Sunday is the biggest game in the past 5 or so years for SAFC. A win could turn the whole thing around, a defeat and things are looking very gloomy.
I don't believe there is such a fixed timeline in ES's mind, but rather, as he is a skilled (and ruthless) investor/entrepreneur - a continual monitoring process of achievement against targets. What that process is or may be I have no idea, but I'm certain that if he deems things too far gone to be rectified by the current management then SB will be gone in a flash. Conversely, if he is satisfied that things are on track then the support available in the set/revised budget will be made available. He is not renowned for knee jerk decisions, but assesses and then decides in a calculated manner. Changes mid season are problematic and full of potential pitfalls - so if pushed I would say in the above ES will stick, any action would wait until the end of the season.
Now thats why I gave the scenario's, not looking back but forward. It is very possible we do hit December with a steady but unspectacular improvement and TBH I'm not sure what option I would go for in Shorts boots. If Bruce is sacked in the next few weeks then the options dont count its if he is still here, and I think he will be. I agree with CM in that a firm top table finish is fantastic but I also wonder if its time to push on.
Snippets? Since Jan (thats 11 home games in all competitions) we have W 2; D 1; L8 (including defeats to such EPL giants as Fulham, Wolves, WBA, and Notts County of the 3rd Division FFS). These are not snippets Cyprus they are some of the worst home games I have seen in the last 10 or 15 years. They are comparable to the McCarthy 15 and 19 point seasons. Under Keane, when did we go 11 consecutive games at HOME with only 2 wins and 8 defeats? It will take you a long, long time to find those stats as they dont exist, so save yourself the time and trouble. In fact, you will struggle to find worse home form under any manager in the past 25 years, inc Mick Macs team who were not that poor at home. However, I'll concede on thing to you, Keane wasnt the answer. Neither is Bruce now.
I understand if the results from this calender year were strung out over a season then we would be headed for another potential record breaking season to match our 15 and 19 point seasons.. Time for a change before we sink like a stone
I disagree to a certain degree. Keane was the answer, to turn the club around get us promoted and keep us up, he then became a hindrance. I think the same thing is happening now with Bruce, he was the answer to stabalise us and push us up the league. I think he is now a hindrance to our further progression.
Not in January Syd, you do that once EPL status is assured, sitting comfortably in 12th in December is fine but it's not much of a drop to the bottom is it? Ask Ricky Spragia.
I agree with parker about both Keane and Bruce - the only issue is whether Bruce has a full season left in charge or not - results to December will determine that. Whilst I appreciate Cest`s points re the home form I think it ignores the top 10 (just) finish to last season and the level of support Bruce has had in the last window - 11 players in shows boardroom support imo. Happy days
Thing I don't understand, every man and his dog can see the left hand side problem, including Quinn surely. Bringing in 11 players and not solving this shows the board believe in Bruce so they will stick.
Oh well, maybe sernarios are a bad idea but it seemed like a good debate when I wrote it. Back to the wright stuff.
Maybe Ellis Short looks at Stoke City and thinks "FFS, I have got the wrong people in charge here". How come Stoke can out-perform Sunderland consistently with a stadium which holds about 20,000 less? Lads, us United fans love Eric Cantona but we'd never want him to be our bleedin' chairman! You need to get your heads out your arses and realise that you have a HUGE tumour in your club that is running your club in an old-fashioned, stubborn, toys-out-of-pram, pathetic and unsustainable way. He has ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what he's doing, it's apparent to all who look at what he is doing. Just because he has a rich Yank backing him up does not mean he's untouchable lads. The guy is consistently making the wrong decisions for your club and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if it was all coming from his ridiculously massive ego. Manchester United were finishing mid-table behind the likes of Watford and Coventry last time Niall Quinn got his hands on any form of respectable honours. He has won nothing at all really, yet he's telling Bruce how to run the bleeding show, despite being 6 years younger than him! Bruce has won, he's won loads as a player. Quinn has never known what it takes to win, yet he's pulling the strings. WAKE UP LADS Niall Quinn is a ****ing joke.
