Just to start the ball rolling on a very good days racing which includes the Group 1 Eclipse in which the 3yr olds mix it for the first time against their older peers. There is a lot of speculation that we have a very ordinairy bunch of 3 year olds this year so it will be interesting to see if anything today or at Newmarket next week can give us cause to question that viewpoint. Eclipse Nathaniel 3-1 This for me is the bet of the flat season so far as with the withdrawal of So You Think i can see nothing getting near him on ground that will play to his strenghs whilst some arguably speedier rivals splosh about in the mud (it will be softer than stated i feel). I see him winning easily by 3-5 lengths because he will have to go for home early and i think he will simply keep finding when others are struggling. He did get beat in the Champion stakes over 10f at Ascot but if you look at the horses in front that day there is not one of that calibre in the field today whilst i feel he was over the top by then anyhow. Further selections Sandown 4.20 Thimmar 9-2 4.55 Scrupal 8-1 Haydock 2.20 Fair Trade 14-1 2.55 Testosterone 11-2 3.25 Fransican 7-1 4.35 Gabriel the Great 11-4 I will be having a good bet on Nathaniel and also in the double with Gabriel the Great, this will be my main interest in the day, the others will also be backed but with less confidence however. Good luck all for tomorrow, there has been some excellent tipping this week which is no mean feat with such poor ground conditions.
Sandown 1.30 Hamza 14-1 Plum draw in stall 2 which should secure a near rail spot for the turn. Far from disgraced 9th of 29 in the Britannia at Ascot off of this mark. Won two starts back over this trip with the second subsequently running a big race when upped 3lb in a £51k handicap at York. I should say I'm slightly worried that they might want to go up the stands side if it gets any softer but your guess is as good as mine. I think and hope it might just get back to good ground. Sandown 2.05 I'll be playing a small stakes combo tricast of stalls 1,2,3,4. (here's why http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS and notice the horse who outran their draw that day and what she achieved next time out!! ) Sandown 3.45 The Eclipse Bonfire 7-1 I think this field is weak. Nathaniel is the classiest horse in my opinion but I think he's worth taking on over 10f especially as he might just need the run. I like Bonfire here. Will like the ground, won the Dante with a bit in hand and simply didn't stay in the Derby. Gets a lovely weight for age allowance and I think that will swing things in his favour
14.05 Sandown- Judge'N'Jury- 7/1 Forigiving a poor run at epsom (not all horses get the track) he has not been on the top 2 in his last 4 races. Won at york back in may then won again of a 6lb higher mark, his last run included a very good 2nd in a GR3 over in Ireland losing out to a talented horse Definightly. Ground shouldnt be a worry as have won on ground varying from good to firm and soft. He is most definately a horse on form and gives 100% and at 7/1 is a decent price and although is vulnerable and up against some higher grade horses. Has a real chance
14.40- Trade Commissioner - 5/2 He stands out in what would otherwise be an ultra-competitive handicap, particularly with his yard still in such good form. He won very easily at Salisbury last time. He's up 10lb for that but could well be another Gosden-trained Group horse in diguise as a handicapper, as we have not seen how good the son of Montjeu actually is Will also being doing singles, doubles, and e/w treble Starscope(NAP) Trade Commissioner Nathaniel
Trade Commissioner stands out in what would otherwise be an ultra-competitive handicap, particularly with his yard still in such good form. Do you work for timeform Wooly . I agree with you mate should win tmz imo
I must say i think Trade Commisioner is a definate lay bet tomorrow as he is running off of 98 after winning easily off of 86 last time and that is one hell of a hike. This horse sweated badly before being beaten on GD/SFT going at Newmarket the time before last also which was also off of 86. With question marks about how he will be in the parade and huge hike in weight and soft ground it's worth looking for something else in my opinion and i favour Classic Colouri or Captain Bertie. I may be wrong as he could as you state be a Gosden group horse and may be winning a bigger race than this in a few weeks time but i think worth taking on tomorrow.
I disagree with everything you say,this is just one more stepping stone to the top of the path. He romped home lto yes it wasnt much of a competition but you can only beat what is infront of you and he certainly did that, plus the form of stable and jockey but good luck to you anyway buddy ! (not too much luck tho
Intresting runner at avery big price is 14.55 Haydock Good Morning Star- 50/1 Will only be having a very small e/w but she is a huge price, her best races have come on soft ground including a good win beating short odds obrien horse betterbetterbetter in the cheshire oaks , although this is bit of a step up in class, she claims weight against the majority of the field and she just got abit outclassed at the end by the likes of twirl & the fugue at york but this competition is no where near to that standard. She has won twice this season 1m2f & 1m3f so aplace claims should be feasible (should be)
I can understand your confidence as well Woolcombe as he could not have looked more impressive but i just can't get the previous race out of my mind off 86 also. I will not actually be laying him as i have never layed a horse in my life but may take him on with Classic Colouri or Captain Bertie, but as i say it's a price thing and can completely understand your faith in him also.
Ican see your concerns too but positives outrule the negatives massivley but Captain Bertie would be 2nd on my list although he is running out of chances tho
Been looking at the Eclipse and here is my take on matters. Taking Farrh's run at Ascot as the benchmark, the ones I can get rid of without too much heavy thought are: Bonfire: Ran like a dog in the Derby, not convinced I've seen enough from him to believe he has the winning of this at all, especially given the disappointing run last time out. Nathaniel: Sounds like he'll need the run, and I'm convinced that he needs the full 12f to be really effective. He was disappointing in the champion stakes last year and I'm not convinced he has the pace to win this, especially first time out. Will be opposing, but is still a horse I really rate and will be looking forward to the rest of his season. City Style: Comfortably behind Farrh at Ascot, no reason he would be any better this time out. Crackerjack King: Has only ever raced as the favourite, apart from one horrible race where he wasn't really himself. I think that if he had a race as good as Farrh's run at Ascot in him then connections would have been more ambitious already. I just don't think he's that classy. Beaten nothing imo. Cogito: Just not up to this standard. Twice Over: A horse I dearly love but his two runs this season (both backed by myself) have been terrible compared to, for example, his Juddamont last season. Can't be having him on the back of this seasons form. Possibly should have been retired earlier I think. So, all of that leaves me with: Monterosso: Top rated horse in the race. I think that this form is over-rated and that the Meydan Gold Cup or whatever it's called was a complete farce this year - his 9.5L reversal of form with the second in that race puts the whole thing into doubt, and with this being run on turf, I'm happy to rule him out also. That said, any 4L beating of So You Think is not to be sneered at, and does, on paper, represent by Far the best form going into the race. For me though, tapeta is not So You Think's ballgame, and I'll be opposing Monterosso despite his odds. Farrh: Ran a blinder in behind SYT at Ascot, beaten by 2.75L. This probably represents very good form, especially as he was definitely hampered, which could have made a length or so's difference. I'm of the opinion that he couldn't have won, but form representing (with better luck) about 1.75L off SYT is good enough to be winning this. Cityscape: A strange one to asses. Winner of a few decent races, with some good form in and around the likes of Canford Cliffs over shorter distances. Has never ran over 10f before. Taking a line through City Style, however (who Cityscape beat by 4.25L over 9f), Cityscape is approximately 0.75L behind SYT. Now this is obviously a ridiculous extrapolation - the races were over different distances and on different continents (although both on turf at least). I personally think he looks like he will stay the distance, and on that particular form line, which I think represents good form, he could have the winning of this race. The odds are a little shorter than I'd like, but the EW price on Betfair looks good. One might be of the opinion that he'll either win or not stay, so backing tbp only seems a bit silly, but I personally am convinced that he will stay, making it look good value if Farrh is as good as many people seem to think. Sri Putra: Was 4.25L behind SYT at Ascot. Not good enough to win the race, but is that enough to place? I don't know. He's available at 40/1, which (if you assume he cannot possibly win), represents odds of 9/2 about the place (bet £1ew, returns £11 if he places). So, given that I think that Cityscape and Farrh are likely to go in 1-2 (unless Cityscape doesn't stay), this is roughly a 18% chance of coming in 3rd. I think that he seems to be improving (his last run behind SYT was his closest yet) and this could be nearly fair if the likes of Nathaniel and Bonfire are the disappointments I expect. That given, that makes the 11/1 available on Betfair an excellent price. To conclude: Farrh/Cityscape reverse forecast (I like playing these) Cityscape tbp @ 2.32 on Betfair (Main bet) Sri Putra tbp @ 12 on Befair (Small stakes)
It's strange how despite SYT's retirement I'm still basing my 90% of my assessment of the race around him. In case you hadn't realised, I thought that evens was a ridiculously good price, and am just glad that I decided to wait until nearer the day to take it.
Also, Woolcombe, that looks like a good shout on Good Morning Star - I think you've made the right points, against this opposition, 50/1 looks big.
Very simple for me in the Eclipse: a) Nathaniel is a soft ground horse, and the rain has arrivd in bucketloads. Watch his action here: [video=youtube;zL3PN9wkypM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zL3PN9wkypM[/video] b) Nathaniel is a high class horse- within 1/2 length of Frankel on soft ground in their respective debuts, has beaten St Nicholas Abbey/Workforce c)Nathaniel stays 1m4f strongly, and this is a significant trait when you consider Sandowns stiff finish over 10f (see Workforce in the 2011 Brigadier Gerard to see how much getting it takes i soft ground- stamina will get you home) 3/1 looks great value and it is just a shame SYT isn't there to give us especially good value. NATHANIEL (NAP) If he ever races in quick ground over 10f he is a lay but conditions here make him a rally nice bet for myself personally.
Word warning for USAIN COLT fans- connections stated clearly in a Royal Ascot interview that he had been saved for better/faster ground, so he w tr be a NR or below par tomorow one would suspect, so a bit of caution
