Watching the first two pattern races at Longchamp today, the ground does not look particularly soft and there does not appear to have been rain yet.
The Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein (3.25) contains a couple of Group 1 winners, with shock Sussex Stakes winner Qirat penalised because his win was this year whilst 2023 Poulains winner Marhaba Ya Sanafi avoids the extra 2 kilos but has only won a Group 3 race and a Listed race in the two years since and is unlikely to be a €116k spare for Tom Marquand. There is very little between many of these on official ratings but some of the outsiders are easily ruled out. Darius Cen won a Listed race in March but has only made the frame once since, a second in a conditions race at Chantilly. Joseph O’Brien’s Princess Child won a Tipperary Group 3 last time graduating from a handicap and whilst the yard is in great form, she might find one or two of these too good to complete the hat-trick. Blinkers are fitted to Zabiari, winner of the Group 3 Prix Bertrand du Breuil (beating Marhaba Ya Sanafi a neck) but well beaten in the Prix Jacques le Marois, where he finished a neck ahead of Ridari, who disappointed when fancied in the Poulains and the Prix Du Jockey Club. Dreamliner has progressed with each of his last three victories, starting in a small conditions race, following up in a Listed race and last time collecting the Group 3 Prix Quincey; and he may be the best chance of a three year old winning. Ed Dunlop’s Skukuza was third in the Strensall Stakes beaten less than a length with the Cambridgeshire winner Boiling Point in second and followed that with a fair fourth in a Group 2 at Leopardstown so he deserves his place in this similar type of event. That leaves the two principals in the betting: Quddwah was only sixth in the Prix Du Moulin over course and distance but won the Prix Messidor on his penultimate start and was a Group 2 winner last term; however, ahead of him in fourth in the Moulin was Andre Fabre’s four year old ALCANTOR, beaten barely a length, reversing the Prix Messidor form (fourth); and he was third in this race last term before winning a Group 3 at Saint Cloud.
Of the twelve listed for the Group 1 Prix de Royallieu (4.00) there looks to be at least four that are just going in the hope of sneaking some black type. The cynic in me thinks that Island Hopping is here today as a pacemaker, a task that she has fulfilled before, notably in the Ribblesdale. Kathina started the season winning a conditions race at Fontainebleau but has not troubled the judge since, finishing fourth in a Listed race over course and distance last time. Bibbiena won a Listed race over course and distance on her penultimate start (Kathina fourth) but was only third in the Group 2 race won by Latakia last time. Four year old Latakia has only raced four times but won three of them, albeit beating the same horse in the last two; and that Group 2 was a Group 2 in name only. Rabbit’s Foot won her first two races but was third in a Group 3 race at Deauville when last seen with Consent ahead in second. Kiamba was sixth in that Deauville heat and her only career win was a Listed race at this track over two furlongs less. Indalimos won that Prix Lady O’Reilly by two and a half lengths on only her fourth start and with progress expected has to hold a live chance today. Shaha has not been seen since she was thrashed at Haydock by Estrange but prior to that won a Listed race at Goodwood, so she clearly goes well fresh. Survie was runner-up in the 2024 Prix de Diane and was seventh in last year’s Arc but her owners took her out of that on Monday. She was fourth in the Prix Vermeille but there does not seem to be any reason why she should reverse running with the third that day, Bedtime Story, over an extra two furlongs. After chasing home Indalimos, Consent was second in the Park Hill Stakes over this trip beaten by the front running SANTORINI STAR who fought back having been headed at the distance. I think William Haggas can win this for the third time in recent years if Tom Marquand can get the fractions right (and/or avoid getting into a battle with Island Hopping) and Indalimos has not improved markedly.
If the race for the females looked competitive, the following Prix Dollar (4.35) looks almost like a nine runner greyhound race! Jenilat Bright ran twice in Listed races in August and was last and a well beaten fourth so is easily dismissed here. Damysus was second in the Dante, last in the Derby and won a Listed race with something to spare last time and should run well. Rashabar skipped the Guineas and was only fourth in the Irish equivalent. He has been runner-up at around this trip the last twice, most recently beaten by Japan’s Alohi Alii in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano with subsequent Prix Niel winner Cualificar third. Bay City Roller has yet to win this term, was only sixth in the Group 2 York Stakes but was just touched off in the Prix Niel (Swagman seventh) and now drops back to this metric ten furlongs. Swagman had not been seen since the Sandown Classic Trial but will the shorter trip see him reverse form with George Scott’s colt? King Of Cities won the Strensall Stakes last time beating the subsequent Cambridgeshire winner to open his 2025 account; however, there are others here that make more appeal. Uthred has won three of his five starts but probably his career best effort was last time in the Group 3 Prix d’Orange beaten less than two lengths fourth by the Japanese Derby winner. Andre Fabre runs two: 2024 Prix Eugene Adam winner Bright Picture won his only start this term, a Clairefontaine conditions race two months ago but appears to be the second string to FIRST LOOK, winner of a Clairefontaine Listed race on his penultimate start and victorious over Goliath in a four runner Group 3 race at Deauville last time that on paper looks the pick of recent form in the race. So crazy as it may seem, I am going with the horse that was second last in this last year, a season in which he was also second in the Prix Du Jockey Club, to give me a Fabre Saturday double.
it can only go down hill now
What's that, 5 on the trot. I pick 2 in one race and neither won. Bright Thunder got backed into 13/8 so got good value there 
. Had a good go but jockey just couldn't cajole her to put her head in front