Saturday's Meetings Glorious Goodwood Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:20p.m. Galway Festival Mixed 8 Races 1:55-5:55p.m. Newmarket Flat 6 Races 2:05-5:00p.m. Doncaster Flat 6 Races 2:10-5:05p.m. Windsor(E) Flat 6 Races 5:45-8:25p.m. Hamilton(E) Flat 6 Races 6:10-8:40p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
In the sprint 'lottery' that is the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood (15:35), choice is the Shamardal gelding, Albasheer, who is in top form at the moment, having won a Class-2 sprint over 5f at Ascot just 7-days ago. The 6lb. extra he carries for this win should not be a problem. Hollie Doyal rides for the Archie Watson stable. 7/1 (Betfred/Ladbrokes/BetVictor) top price at the time of writing. E/W best option.
Looking at the stats for the Stewards Cup and here are the dominant ones: Age – 8 of the last 12 winners were aged between 3 and 5 Weight – 10 of the last 12 carried 9st 6lbs or less Last Run – 11/12 winners had their last run within the last 46 days Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 6 previous run over 6 furlongs, 9/12 winners had at least 7 previous runs over 6 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 3 previous win over 6 furlongs Rating – 10/12 winners had a rating of 101 or higher Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/12 winners had at least 1 win that season Funny enough the weight and rating stats cancel each other out this year with Mostabshir rated 101 and carrying 9-8 - which leaves you pondering whether any of the top are unexposed enough to give away the weight. I'm going with NO so am choosing the weight stat and will rule out Mostabshir and above. The one exception to that is the 3YO and hot favourite Purosangue who is rated 101 but carries 9-4 with the 4lbs WFA. His neck second to Big Evs in last year's Molecombe Stakes reads very well after that one took the Qatar Stakes yesterday. 4/1 is probably a little bit on the short side for a bet but he should take all the beating.
The Goodwood 2:25 ticks quite a few boxes. It looks easy to cut it down to just a few possible and the field is not too small (probable lack of pace) or too large (probable traffic trouble for hold-up horses). The Ian Williams yard is hardly banging in the winners of late (4 winners in the last 40 runners, 2 the same horse) so expensive import Sheradann needs to show more before it can be considered in a valuable handicap. Old by Euchen Glen has won once since 2021 but continues to run consistently and is no forlorn hope for a place. I think that the handicapper may have Tides Of War in his grasp as he won over course and distance off 85, his highest winning British mark, but he was third in this last year off 95. Forza Orta has been running mostly over 2 miles and not troubling the judge so he may have his work cut out today. Ayyab won here on her penultimate start and was a respectable sixth in a Listed race when last seen but would need a career best to supplement her two wins to date. Always be wary of a Prescott runner but True Legend has not won for a year and was beaten over course and distance by Tides Of War two starts back. Intinso is an interesting runner as an argument can be made for him if one is prepared to ignore his last place finish in the Copper Horse in a tongue tie that is now discarded. Dancing In Paris certainly has plenty going for him on recent form, including an Ascot win under today’s pilot, but the yard’s form has dipped and would he prefer easier ground? Hurdler Mr Freedom has plenty going for him having won both his flat starts in 2024, one at this track, so he should go well at generous odds. There are still big question marks against the form of the Charlie Johnston yard, with only one winner and one runner up this week from a huge number of runners at Goodwood. Knightswood is a long time without a win (two wins at Ripon last June) and was well beaten on his only previous trip here. Align The Stars certainly has the form in the book to compete here, coming in on a hat-trick and could well be the pace angle here as he won at this trip last time having been in the first two the whole race. Lightly raced Great Bedwyn has won three of his nine career starts, including last time, and looks quite adaptable tactically so definitely makes the short list. However, I like FAIRBANKS, winner of five of his eleven starts, who stepped up to this trip last time under today’s jockey in a race where Knightswood and Tides Of War finished behind. The handicapper has raised him 6lb but I am not sure that will anchor him. The non runners have made the Lillie Langtry (3:00) a little easier to sort out. Of the eight remaining at the time of writing, there do look to be a few that are optimistically chasing black type. Night Sparkle has contested a couple of Group 3 races since stepping up from handicaps but was behind Terms Of Endearment at York with River Of Stars behind them both. The Irish mare has not been seen since York but the quick ground would be a concern with her whilst River Of Stars followed that race with a Pontefract Listed win. Dancing Tango followed up a second in a Group 3 race with a well beaten fifth in the Curragh Cup. Although she is 3lb better off with Grateful for that half length second, one might expect the three year old to be the more likely to improve and both would need to career bests today. The first issue with the French raider Melo Melo is the quick ground, which she has never encountered. The obvious career best performance was second in the 2023 Prix Vermeille, previous to which she had won a Group 2. So she is up to the required level if the going does not prevent her giving her best. The mare Caius Chorister has worked her way up from handicaps and won a St Cloud Group 3 last year. She just failed to catch Coltrane in the Sagaro and just gave second best to Sweet William in the Henry II, who both finished in front of her in the Gold Cup. So on the evidence of those two runner-up spots, she may not be seen early and her backers will be more intersted in the final furlong. FREE WIND was odds on favourite for this last year and came unstuck in the heavy ground (River Of Stars was second) but was subsequently second in the Yorkshire Oaks with Bluestocking behind. When last seen, she was well beaten by the improved Bluestocking but given her hold-up style of running, I do not expect to see her until the business end of the race. So the question here becomes who is going to make the running and at what pace? At the moment I am thinking it will be Night Sparkle, so Oisin Murphy might be trying to steal this from the front. I am hoping that it is going to be a good day for American owner/breeder George Strawbridge. You can scratch Dream Composer in the Stewards’ Cup as I have drawn it in the ITV7 sweepstake.
In the first at Goodwood I can't remember seeing such a close betting heat in a 5 runner race - 11/4, 3/1, 7/2, 4/1, 5/1
Yes, Free Wind was no match for Blue Stockin over the shorter distance but since then Blue Stocking had a cracking run in the KG and Free Wind's best run, for me, was when just failing to overhaul Warm Heart in the Yorkshire Oaks in a very fast time. That, for me, makes her the outstanding bet at Goodwood today; as long as it is a truly run race
A bit nervous, having looked at the form of some of the others but hoping the ground will be more in her favour to swing it
Ridiculous. No chance from the start. She didn't have 10lb in hand so couldn't win from there. If I'd had a bet the ticket would have been in the bin after 100 yards
Get It wins the Stewards Cup carrying a 6lbs penalty - great performance. Return of the high draw bias?
They only put 5ml water on the course last night. The owners of Purosangue told me this morning they’d wanted the ground softer today which dented their confidence in this race.
That Goodwood ground didnt look like it had much firm in it despite the official going description. Looked pretty loose to me. Only 1 of the winners (Stewards Cup) had previously won on faster ground than good.
I think the draw and the quick break by the winner basically decided the Stewards Cup in the first 50 yards.
A good effort by Fairbanks in the handicap but just could not give the weight to the rallying Align The Stars under Joe Fanning. Fanning set the fractions and the moderate early pace worked against the hold-up horses in the field. The commentary team noted old Euchen Glen flying down the outside at the death but the one that went in the notebook for me was the third, Great Bedwyn, also finishing with a wet sail down the outside. He is the one I would be looking for next time in a handicap as the handicapper might give the first two enough of a rise that they might have to go looking for a Listed race. I am going to be generous and say that there is an opposite of “horses for courses” along the lines of “horses for races”. When your horses runs abysmally in a race one year because the ground is heavy you come back to the same race the following year when the ground is much better and hope that it will be different. Instead what you find is that even with a different (less famous) jockey, your horse still turns in an equally dire performance using the same tactics. Free Wind is normally help up and brought late but when asked for her effort nothing materialised.
I will say that it was definitely the quick break by the winner combined with the stupidity of the other jockeys. I was watching the race in a pub and one of the old boys had a pound on the winner at 90/1 on Betfair after they had gone a furlong. At some point I will go and have a look at the Goodwood results this week. There seem to have been a lot of races won by horses that made all or were in the first three all the way. The hold-up horses have only won when those up front have gone too fast and folded. Where they have been allowed to set a moderate pace and quicken off it, the horses near the lead have won.
Loose because it was watered. They also stick loads of sand on as well. All our turf courses will have more sand than the AW courses the way things are going.
