This Saturday sees Squire step up in class to tackle some useful colts in a Class 3 handicap I'm not claiming to have done a thorough job on this by any means but just a quick look at 2 races over C&D illustrates what chance Squire has (theoretically) on Saturday. Conversion rates Over 10f: 1 length = 1.75lbs (BHA) Good going or quicker: 6l = 1 sec (Betfair Protrader) 1 sec = 10.5 lbs (deduced) Squire.(4yo- OR 71) 14th May Newmarket 10f (Class 5) - 9.3lb Time 2m 7.28secs The following day (when times were generally slightly faster) Zugzwang (4yo - OR 87) 15th May Newmarket 10f (Class 3) - 9.6lb Time 2m 5.92secs Beaten hd On Saturday an OR 87 horse has been allocated 9.0lb. Squire has been allocate 8.3lb Now follows an attempt to compare these 2 on the revised weights assuming they both run to the same form. Squire carries 14lb less so his time is adjusted by 1.33 secs making an adjusted time of 2m 5.95s Zugzwang carries 6lb less so his time is adjusted by 0.57 secs making an adjusted time of 2m 5.35s So strictly on that, Squire would finish 0.6secs behind Zugzwang (or 3.6l) ie effectively, less than 4l behind the winner of a Class 3 over C&D Now if we factor in: Squire was pulling Havlin's arms out for half a mile lto Squire is still learning and therefore still has room for improvement a stronger pace may suit Squire and help him to settle Luke Morris takes the ride this time as Havlin can't make the weight We can speculate as to whether Squire can make up that 4l. I think it's not out of the question. Good luck on Saturday stick and I'll be looking at the time compared to the Listed race earlier in the afternoon to see what can be extrapolated from that. Current Odds here
Interestingly the Timeform selection, London Citizen, ran in that latter race and finished 4l behind Zugzwang. Also Forgotten Hero is a free running sort and that should help Squire to settle early on. They are handicapped to dead heat so I think Squire will give a very good account of himself - provided the new jockey suits him. "Timeform says: Progressive of late, getting off mark at Windsor last month and adding to tally over C&D earlier this month. Should still be competitive after further 5 lb rise."
Squire receives a stone from likely favourite Mythical Madness, who carried top weight to win a better race at Windsor last time than Squire’s Newmarket contest. Mythical Madness is likely to be up with the pace but looking at the race, the most likely front runner is Mark Johnston’s Sea The Skies as most of the field seem to be hold up horses (whether they settle or not). If they let Sea The Skies have too much of a soft lead, he may not come back off just 8st 10lb as this is just his fifth career start. London Citizen needs to find quite a bit for his seasonal bow over course and distance but it does not look like he was over tried that day. Captain Morley drops in trip after being beaten when favourite in a mile-and-a-half Windsor handicap but it is hard to see the shorter trip being the panacea. Four or five of these can be ruled out on recent form (or lack thereof) but Richard Hughes is an interesting booking for Purple Spectrum, who appears to have been messed about with lately over various trips. How much rain falls at Newmarket could have a significant impact on the result. Sorry, stick, but if the ground stays fast, Squire would not be my first choice but I am sure everyone here wishes you well.
Thanks for the research Ron, really interesting. Fingers crossed he progresses, we are expecting a big run. Havlin says he's lazy and only just does enough, tomorrow we will find out a hell of a lot about what he's really got.
Cheers the don. Do you have a share also? The 15.20 will be interesting. Watersmeet runs in this Class 2, having come 4th in a £28k Class 2 lto and previously winning a Class 3 "comfortably"
In that case, good luck to you both. It was 2 months ago when Squire finished just over 5l behind Watersmeet. Squire has come on leaps and bounds since then, especially on turf and with plenty of room. Can't wait to see how his time compares with the 2.45 earlier on the card. Some top form represented in that one.
The squire bandwagon rolls on, nice bit of research Ron . Good luck lads I'll be on. I might even go.
I have just had a look Stick as I said I would earlier in the week. My view is that I think it's the perfect race to see what you have on your hands with Squire as he is taking on a class of animal he has yet to see, and so I think it is a good race for him to run in. I was interested to hear Rab say he is lazy and just does enough, if this is the case then he may yet have enough to come to take this step up in class in his stride. If however I take a view of the race without taking that into account I actually feel he will run with credit but come up a little short in that field. The bookies have him at around 6th in the betting but I think that he will finish fourth in that field, 3 lengths behind Captain Morley and Mythical Madness who look safer bets at this level. The good thing however is that the class horse in the race Ray Ward is clearly being got ready for the staying event he usually contests at Royal Ascot as 10f is way too short for him. 1st Captain Morley 2nd Mythical Madness Squire between 3rd and 5th I would be very happy to be wrong however and will be cheering him on and likely even having a tenner on him for sheer sentiment. Good luck
I think I would be more worried about another well bred improver in Sea The Skies. Provided Squire takes a liking to Luke Morris I think he'll be in the frame and 11/1 Ladbrokes is a decent price. If he isn't I don't think it will be due to lack of ability.
Cheers guys. Love the fact that he is actually worth talking about. We have been so fortunate to get such a good horse so cheap. I know I am biased but he really is a gorgeous boy, such a character at home, Michael has to keep running as he just has so much energy. He is very eager to please and while it is true that he only really does just enough he is a very tenacious battler too. He doesn't like to lose, not even in a gallop so I really hope that quality stands him in good stead tomorrow. Win, lose or draw it is a privilege to be one of his owners. I am also pleased that he is doing Michaels profile no harm whatsoever. The only horses in the yard that he is responsible for buying are the three that run in the partnership colours and ALL three have won this season.
Realistically it's just too tough a race for Squire to win and the odds considering are ridiculous and should at least be 14s. Captain Morley / Sea The Skies look the winner, if a big priced winner is going to arise i'd imagine it would be Donny Rover
