Hello Everyone, Lately I’ve just been putting up snippets of info and haven’t really been investing much time into analysing the races at all and I therefore wanted to put an end to that tonight, hence why I have previewed a few of tomorrows races. All my own thoughts.. all of my own conclusions.. so we’ll see how we go. What better race to start with than the Charlie Hall Chase @ Wetherby this renewal is a particular humdinger with last year’s winner Nacarat heading the weights due to several creditable performances after his win here particularly when winning the Totesport Bowl at Aintree. The outsiders Acrai Rua is making up the numbers and can be easily discredited; Chief Dan George is a good horse in his own field but is largely disappointing and will not be winning here today. Chicago Grey & Weird Al are priced similarly and whilst they have some smart form and Weird Al runs well fresh I believe the McCain’s don’t really know where the horse is and therefore this is merely a fact finding mission. So nothing surprising in my ending here it’s just about a 3 horse race with Nacarat there to pounce on any mistakes but Paul Nicholl’s Poquelin, Nick Williams Diamond Harry and Paul Webbers Time For Rupert are the principle contenders in the race. Poquelin has arguably the most to prove with this 8yr old having never ran or won over 2m 5fl, Diamond Harry who disappointed in the RSA chase certainly made up for this in the Hennessey Gold Cup when an game performance over 2fl further than this trip today. This leaves me with another horse who disappointed in the RSA chase in the form of Time For Rupert, It was subsequently found that he suffered a burst blood vessel due to a lung infection. His trainer Paul Webber states that "I'm sure he's done enough work to do himself justice. He's ready for action and ready to win.” This horse has class and in my opinion is still unexposed over fences and can return to winning ways here. Over at Ascot in the 3:00 we have the William Hill Handicap Hurdle over a trip of 2miles, this competitive listed race includes horses that have won races and have looked promising but have not really progressed from there on, case in type Via Galilei, A Media Luz. The two horses I am interested in do have similar form ;Third Intention came 2nd earlier this year in a race at Haydock where Kumbeshwar was third 5l behind Third Intention. Paul Nicholls exciting Zarkandar have beaten both Kumbeshwar / Third Intention the latter came 10lengths behind in the Triumph Hurdle whilst Alan Kings horse finished 1 1/2L behind Zarkandar at Aintree. Alan King didn’t have the greatest of years last year and still Kumbeshwar performed with credit, I believe he’s still well handicapped and gets the vote here. Now back to where I’ve become more familiar with Newmarket and Flat Racing in a listed race over a mile for 3yr olds and upwards in the 2:05 where we have a short price favourite in the form of Ecliptic from the Mohammed Al Zarooni’s stable where Frankie jumps on board, who returned from a 15month absence to beat Mon Cadeaux over 7fl on this occasion he was slowly away, dwelt towards the rear placed on the rails early on came to take it up on the wide outside and perilously swept the field aside with an impressive turn of foot. He previously as a 2yr old came 2nd to King Torus in the G2 Superlative Stakes at the predicted odds against there is always the fear of a kickback from returning to soon after a break however this looks a class horse im not going to tip an odds on shot here, however I would advise the forecast of Ecliptic and Secrecy another Godolphin runner trained by Saaed Bin Suroor ridden by Kieran Fallon who has come close in similar events now tries headgear and can get close. Info 3:15 Newmarket – Dubawi Sound Roger Varian thinks alot of this horse, disappointed somewhat when punted off the boards at Epsom lto however did encounter trouble in running, yard are confident yard are on. All the best, Cats
Nice one Cats good read mate. 2.45 Wetherby â WHAT A FRIEND 4/1 (BOG) A strong renewal of this race in which Fair Along is bidding for a hat-trick of wins. He goes well fresh and should make a bold bid, however this is a strong renewal and it may well be worth looking elsewhere this year. I was surprised by some fine performances from Carlito Brigante last season, he looked very impressive when storming away with the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham festival before running with great credit behind Big Bucks at Aintree (4th ) and then finishing 3rd to Quevega at Punchestown. He would have leading claims on those performances and a recent flat spin should have him spot on for tomorrow, although he was disappointing that day the form should not be taken seriously at all. Although I do like the claims of the Irish raider I am just passing him over in favour of WHAT A FRIEND who reverts to hurdles following a below par run in the Grand National, that run is easily forgiven and prior to that he had some high class chasing form. He wasnât a bad novice hurdler either and he makes plenty of appeal tomorrow when he is ridden by Ruby Walsh for only the fourth time. Form figures when Ruby has ridden him are 131.
Evening Cats. Nice to see you back in action. I do like the sound of Dubawi Sound at 9/2. Interesting that Timeform doesn't have him in the first 3.
I like Chicago Grey in the Charlie Hall... Front 3 all have question marks and at a decent ew price i hope he can go well...
evening im with cats nd RV Cats great right up and bouyant text im on RV ditto alsp whip ban or not Ruby loves to win he's over here coz he smells blood and Victory, Fistral Beach was nice but its only the cake tommorow the iceing stay frosty
I am puzzeled as to why John Ryan has entered orinioco in the 2.40 at Newmarket. It appears to be an unraced horse running in a conditions race against some decent horses with winning form. Were he to get within any proximity to them at the line his handicap mark would be immediately taken no chances with and yet it cannot be that they think he is so good that he has been put into a listed race for 2yr old black type as it is not a listed race. Why is he doing this ? why is he missing the traditional maiden route ?
Agree that it appears between the front three in the Charlie Hall. For the first time ever i have backed Diamond Harry, not a horse that i particularly like, but just think he has everything in his favour this time. Also done reverse forecasts with him, Poquelin and Time For Rupert so will hopefully collect on that front too. Fancy Carlito Brigante to run a nice race in the big hurdle. Backed him 5/1 EW 1/4 the odds which seems fair. I think he's a good bet to place at the very least and think he's the most likely winner. Surely What A Friend will not be tuned up for this given he is targeted at the National in the spring. Agree that Ecliptic looks nailed on at Newmarket and have 'invested' accordingly. At Ascot i have gone with the in-form trio of Baseball Ted, Elsafeer and Muirhead to take the honours. They all have fitness on their side which may prove crucial at this stage of the season and all come into the race off of career bests last time. Hopefully their upward curves can continue here.
Couple of back bets for me tomorrow that might be of e/w interest. 3.15 Tuscania (NAP) 11/1 Never want to take a Cats selection on but Tuscania shaped with so much promise this season and cannot believe it has taken them so long to up her to the 1m trip. Finally gets the opportunity today and the yard seem in really good order. Looks as if she should relish the trip so I think rates as one of the best looking value bets each-way. 2.05 Newmarket Irish Flame 15/2 I believe was the South African classic winner and was very highly regarded before disappointing in Dubai last year. That was mixing in top company however and this is a drop in class. Interesting down at 1m, might look to make all under Richard Hughes. The Charlie Hall looks a fantastic race but I will side with POQUELIN at this stage of the season. I thought Paul Nicholls sounded bullish about the season ahead and I think we might see a much improving horse this season, with the Gold Cup in mind. Has the speed to become a top stayer judged on the way he has shaped, if that makes sense? (I.e a very good 2 and a half mile chaser, but with the suggestion he will get further) Two other horses who I would add for Yankee/Lucky 15 purposes would have to be Dux Scholar 4.25 Newmarket, who has some rock solid form to its name, is down from Group 3 to listed level, and worked extrememly well with Workforce on the gallops a few days before the Arc. I think he might be able to cause Jet Away some problems. The other horse would have to be A Media Luz 3.00 Ascot, who hinted at some serious ability last season despite her inconsistency. It is significant that Henderson continues to keep her in good company and I suspect that with good schooling and another year to mature, she could prove a smart prospect this season. Her 2nd to Grandouet last season reads extremely well and puts her bang in contention in this race at what is a value price. I have yet to make any decisions regarding any possible lay bets, so I'll keep you updated on that. It is conceivable that there might just not be the right opportunities, but I'll have a look in more detail before deciding.
2.45 Wetherby Fair Along has won this for the past two years but conditions mean he's giving weight away all round. Carlito Brigante hacked up at the Festival over 20 furlongs but appeared not to get three miles on his two attempts at Aintree and Punchestown. Ashkazar is talented on his day but is very unreliable, and Mobaasher needs plenty of cut to show his best. What A Friend reached 138 over hurdles and will certainly stay, but for me the selection here has to be Restless Harry. He ran good races at level weights behind both Big Bucks and Grand Crus, and his form enables him to win this without the weight pull he receives. Recommended bet: As much as you want Each Way @9/2 (Paddy Power) 2.15 Wetherby. At level weights Alasi should put this race to bed- her form behind Quevega reads superior to any of these. Recommended bet: Win @13/8 (Paddy Power) 2.05 Newmarket. After his good second behind King Torus last season, Ecliptic won decisively on his debut. His price will be short in this Class One contest, but he should bolt in. Recommended bet: Win @ 6/5 (William Hill)
Morning all what a cracking days racing but I am in Sweden so won't be seeing any of it. First runner of my 10 to follow today in the shape of Kumbeshwar and his form behind Zarkander and Grandouet justifies a 145 rating and as Cats states above the yard will hopefully be in much better form this time around and I fancy him to go very close on seasonal debut today. Having studied the Charlie Hall long and hard I strongly believe Time For Rupert is the one to beat. Win singles and the Barney Rubble Best of luck everybody
I have picked out many of the same Topclass, i just have a resevation about A Media luz as Henderson is so difficult to call at this time of year. He is more than capable of having him ready to win and just as likely to be getting him fit on the course. I personally think he is the best horse in the race but think he may be left short today and travel wonderfully but not be able to go with them from 2 out.
Text off Willie "Pozyc (Swedish for "get the beers in" ask Oddy) went up 8lbs for his narrow win over this trip in Listowel. He is in good form, however, and will like today's ground. We are hoping he will be invoved at the business end. Also follow Ruby and The little fat fella Elliot over there today they both took big bags and a wheel barrow with them, hope the ferry doesnt sink, take care big fella, stay frosty and tell Oddy to behave in sweden, theres some big girls out there"
Morning all! 2 placepots for me and also a few fancies for today... Ascot: Leg 1: Oasis Knight (1) / Richmond (3) / Fontano (4) Leg 2: Baseball Ted (8) / Fiftyonefiftyone (9) Leg 3: Kumbeshwar (3) / Via Galilei (8) / Elsafeer (11) Leg 4: Bideford Legend (5) / Ostland (6) / Free World (15) / Life Of a Luso (17) Leg 5: Saute (2) / Giant O Murchu (4) Leg 6: Megastar (2) / Tiger O Toole (4) 288 @ 5p £14.40 Wetherby: Leg 1: Round Tom (3) Leg 2: Alasi (1) Leg 3: Fair Along (1) Leg 4: Nacarat (1) Leg 5: Proud Times (10) Leg 6: Havingotascoobydoo(1) 1 @ £15 £15 Singles Bets: Oasis Knight (EW) 1.55 Ascot Has gone well fresh before, and can follow that trend again today. He has been running in better class than this, and despite the fact he has plenty of weight, he should give another good account. 18/1 Victor Chandler Stage Attraction (EW) 3.15 Newmarket Cracking race for EW betting with 12/1 bar one. The horse mentioned had his progress halted when running in a hot 3yr old handicap at Ascot, and is nack at a more suitable level. Handicapped to go well, and should be thereabouts once again. 16/1 Various Nacarat 3.20 Wetherby Such a consistent horse in this race, and looks set fair to go well again. He should be able to get the lead up front, and he can make every post a winning one to land the Charlie Hall. 6/1 Various. Life Of A Luso (EW) 3.40 Ascot (NAP) It has to be said that it was a very poor ride from Tom O'Brien at Cheltenham last time out. He is extremely well handicapped at the bottom of the weights, and despite this being a step up in class, he will go very well rpoviding his jumping is up to scratch. 16/1 Various Good Luck everybody!
Disappointing that there is only 1 handicap at Wetherby. Hope they decide to move the listed handicap chase run on Friday's to Saturdays and move the Mares Hurdle from Saturday to Fridays.
3.20 Wetherby – POQUELIN 9-2 (BOG) A high class renewal of the Charlie Hall chase for which Diamond Harry currently heads the market. This lightly raced 8 year old has 10 wins from 13 career starts and also two high class third place finishes. His only disappointing run was when pulled up in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham festival back in March 2010. He goes incredibly well when fresh having won 5 out of 5 starts first time out after a lay off and looks sure to run a big race in an attempt to follow up his impressive Hennessey Gold Cup win at Newbury last season. The current second favourite is the Paul Webber trained Time For Rupert .He developed in to a high class hurdler over a couple of seasons and made an effortless transition to the larger obstacles last season when winning two good Novice chases at Cheltenham, his slick jumping was very impressive and it was disappointing to see him get beat at the festival when only fifth in the RSA Chase. However he had a valid excuse that day and the way he still managed to plug on in the closing stages has to be admired. He will be fancied by many today and he has every chance of going right to the top in the future. As written above both Diamond Harry and Time for Rupert have leading claims this afternoon, however slight preference is for POQUELIN. He is currently rated the highest in this field at 170 and has some top class form. He also goes well fresh and is a most interesting contender now going beyond 2m 5f for the first time. He seems to go best at Cheltenham so it will be fascinating to see how he handles this completely different track. I don’t see the trip as a problem here and if running up to his best form I fancy him to land this. It would be foolish to rule out Nacarat who landed this last season. He will be fully tuned up for this and looks sure to make a bold bid from the front under last year’s winning jockey Sam Thomas 3.40 Ascot – AIR FORCE ONE E.W (16-1 NAP) & MUIRHEAD 7/1 I am looking forward to this race this afternoon and I feel that Air Force One is a horse that could run a big race at a decent price. High class on his day (rated 159) he seems to have lost his way a bit, however it is interesting Charlie Mann has kept him in training and now returning from a 553 day absence he runs off a mark of just 132, I would fancy him to go seriously close off this mark if he has retained even some of his old ability and therefore a chance is taken at around 16/1. I have had to have a small saver on MUIRHEAD due to his effortless victory at Limerick last time out. He was seriously impressive and although he is up to 147 now he could still be well in considering he was a 158 hurdler not long ago. 2.05 Newmarket- SAMURAI SWORD E.W 10/1 (BOG) A good listed race here for which Godolphin look to have leading claims. Frankie Dettori has chosen to ride Ecliptic who is currently a 5/4 shot. He looked very impressive when returning from a lay off to win as he liked at Salisbury earlier this month and therefore he has to be respected. Secrecy also runs for Godolphin and is the second favourite at the moment; he has the assistance of king Fallon and has the form to be involved. However I like the look of the third string SAMURAI SWORD, I nominated him as a horse to follow at the start of the season and he shaped well first time out before going on to win at Ascot, the bare form of that win is nothing special at all and a lot more is required here but he has the profile of a progressive horse and he remains completely unexposed. I fancy him to run in to a place at least and the 10/1 on offer looks decent value. I have also backed DUX SCHOLAR (4.25 Newmarket) and OUR GIRL SALLEY (2.50 Naas)
Sorry i've not got time to put up the logic behind these but am hopeful of returns today. I dont usually fancy as many as i do today.... Here goes Weth 2.15 Alasi 6/4 Weth 2.45 Ashkazar 13/2 NB Ascot 4.15 Saute 100/30 New 4.25 Jet Away 2/1 NAP Ayr 3.30 Retreat Content 6/1 Singles... stake dependant on odds. good luck to all.
