Daily Racing Thread Saturday 27th. Oct. 2018

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attivo

attivo

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Jan 23, 2014
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Saturday's Meetings

Newbury
Flat 8 Races 1:10-5:05p.m.
Leopardstown
Flat 8 Races 1:25-5:20p.m.
Galway
N/H 8 Races 1:35-5:35p.m.
Doncaster
Flat 7 Races 1:45-5-10p.m.
Kelso
N/H 7 Races 1:50-5:15p.m.
Cheltenham
N/H 7 Races 2:00-5:30p.m.
Kempton(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:45-8:45p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck <ok>
 
Cheltenham 15,45

King Calvin 18/1 e/w

Maybe the most complicated race of the day.

King Calvin is very strange that he runs here because the plan for him was Novice chasing after a small wind op this summer. Up in class and trip and perhaps this race is too much for him but of the four races he ran last season he won two and one was in Wincanton where he beat for more than 4L to Secret Investor that won two weeks ago in Chepstow a Grade 2.
 
In what used to be the Horris Hill at Newbury Chairmanoftheboard has contracted from 4/1 into 13/8 and he is tipped heavily for the race.

Mick Channon's colt ran out a very impressive winner on his only start, coming away by eight lengths. He seems to have a lot going for him here but I am not a big fan of the trainer and thought John Gosden's Azano was impressive himself last time, making a big leap forward from a modest debut, to run out a cosy winner in a much improved speed figure and a rating two stone better than his first start. At 5/1 he looked more appealling to me for a small play.

The Channon horse won over 6F at Goodwood and that is a sharper test so there is just enough to take him on for me upped to 7F and beyond the recognised "Sprint" trip.

2.50 Newbury Azano 5/1 was my idea of value against the favourite.

My other fancies were placed earlier in the week. Magna Grecia and San Donato 7/2 and 10/3 in singles and a double as my main bet of the week.
 
Chairmanoftheboard my biggest bet of the season, cant remember seeing one backed like that first time out, and then the way he did it, looked to have plenty on at one point and then suddenly he was back on the bridle and all over the previous Newbury winner Sir Busker. The ground was bottomless that day so I have no concerns about the trip. They clearly knew he was good and Channon said after the race its the best he's had since Zafeen who won the St James Palace about 15 years ago. Price is short enough now on pure facts, there is a lot of hype involved but at 6/1 earlier in the week I was out the door within 10 minutes of seeing it.
 
Be interested to hear Stick’s view on the Cheltenham bumper today. Lots of previous winners but the one that caught my eye (largely based on the wonderful name) is Ratfacemcdougall. I’d love to know the origins of that name <laugh>.
Probably all about education for him today though and impressive Sedgefield scorer Master Debonair could be the answer.
 
Morning

1.25 Leopardstown-Racine @ 15-8 [Unibet]

Newcomer but stable 2 year olds are finishing the season well
 
Off to Cheltenham racecourse in a few hours..the sense of anticipation and all that..looking forward to a special day......<ok> . If anyone has any strong fancies please post away, especially for the last race.

A shame Movewiththetimes is a non runner was looking forward to seeing him but look forward to seeing Redicean v Gumball. Gonna have 3 bets:

2.00pm - For Good Measure 7/1 e/w 4 places 1/4 odds. Nicely weighted, only had 2 sighters over fences over inadequate trips but if getting in to a rhythm must have a big chance.
2.35pm - Gumball 15/8 win
3.45pm General Consensus 33/1 e/w 5 places 1/4 odds. Last run was over in Punchestown and he was up with the leaders for a long way and that race featured the likes of Next Destination and Kilbricken Storm. Nothing in that class in this race and I understand yard are expecting a big run today.
 
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Whilst the flat season officially ends with the November handicap, these last three weeks are really the dying embers.

The Vertem Futurity Trophy is now the last big juvenile event on the domestic calendar and is covered elsewhere. It is difficult to summon up any enthusiasm for what used to be the Horris Hill at Newbury as it looks competitive but most of the participants have sufficient negatives to make me pass them over or they are the usual “lots of potential” gambles. There is a temptation to take on my Derby horse Young Rascal (won his other three starts) with Weekender, but I am not sure how this race is going to be run and he is dropping back in trip.

It is surely going to be Ripp Orf’s turn to get his head in front again at Doncaster today but 4/1 is too short in a 20 runner cavalry charge.

That just leaves me with SAN DONATO in the opener at Doncaster. He should have the race set up for him by his main market rival Breath Of Air who made all to win a maiden last time. It has to be said that neither yard has been banging in the winners on turf in the last three weeks (4 for Varian, 4 for Hills) so confidence is not high.
 
Mine and the better half's arrows for today. All 5p e/w patents with skybet. All BOG.

Mine:
NBRY
110 - Spanish Aria @ 9/2 (1/5 3)
140 - Naughty Rascal @ 9/1 (1/4 3)
220 - Morando @ 6/1 (1/5 3)

NBRY
430 - White Chocolate @ 12/1 (1/4 3)
505 - French Mix @ 13/2 (1/4 4)
KEMPTON
545 - Glamorous Rocket @ 11/2 (1/5 3)


DONNY
145 - Dave Dexter @ 7/1 (1/5 3)
325 - Dakota Gold @11/1 (1/5 6) 18+ runners
435 - Ripp Orf @4/1 (1/5 5) 14+ runners


CHELT
200 - Doing Fine @17/2 (1/5 6) 14+ runners
345 - King Calvin @16/1 (1/5 5) 14+ runners
530 - Breaking Waves @13/2 (1/5 3)


KEMPTON
645 - In The Cove @9/2 (1/4 3)
745 - Glassy Waters @7/1 (1/4 3)
845 - Pipes of Peace @7/2 (1/4 3)


NBRY
140 - Naughty Rascal @ 4/1 (1/4 3)
220 - Young Rascal @ 11/10 (1/5 3)
250 - Dirty Rascal @ 8/1 (1/5 3)








The Better Half's.

NBRY
250 - Dirty Rascal @ 8/1 (1/5 3)
320 - Say Nothing @ 18/1 (1/5 3)
355 - Iconic Choice @11/1 (1/5 3)


DONNY
255 - Busy Street @11/2 (1/4 3)
405 - Phoenix of Spain @5/2 (1/5 3)
510 - Kyllachy Dragon @ 9/1 (1/5 3)

KELSO
150 - Thelongwayaround @ 4/1 (1/5 3)
225 - Lady London @9/2 (1/5 3)
335 - Trooblue @12/1 (1/4 3)


KEMPTON
615 - Star Command @ 66/1 (1/5 3)
715 - Ever Changing @ 6/1 (1/5 3)
815 - Lightning Charlie @ 8/1 (1/5 3)


Fingers crossed we get our money back at least.
 
Hello, all. Hope we all tickety-boo.

Have to start with a review of yesterday. First up Herculean ran respectably, but no more than that, ‘oooooooooooooooop’ at Donny as he went down by 1.5 lengths. He will probably remain on a figure around the 90 mark after that. It was though his first run for 3.5 months so maybe we can put it down to ‘stuffiness’, needing the run and such like...I don’t know. Still think he could be up to wining decent races but given his owners penchant for moving this type of animal to the US you do have to wonder if next season he will be running there or here. Whatever, they opt for though he remains capable of winning a Group/Graded race in ’19, in my opinion, as it should be important not to forget that yesterday was only his 4th racecourse appearance. And don’t forget those form-ties with the 113 rated Wadilsafa!

Royal King was woeful and it maybe clutching at straws but as stated in the write-up his stable remain in poor form (-40090P400 in October now) so let’s look to this as a major contributing factor. Should fall to a perch of around 50 now and when this barren spell ends for the Blake barn (they are too good and too shrewd for it continue indefinitely) given Royal King’s lineage he will be very well handicapped. Don’t given up on him just yet as last evening was obviously too bad to be true. Stick him in your notebook and look out for him when the yard are performing more healthily.

Nothing for me today but one thing I will say is that I’d be very wary of backing anything at Cheltenham on that unseasonable sod. Could be a ‘bookies benefit’ that meet, I suspect.

Good luck all.
 
Herculean's biggest problem is being in the Charlton stable. I reckon he's the biggest underachiever in the training ranks.

Considering the quality of horses he gets sent, particularly from Khalid Abdullah, his success rate with them is very poor in my opinion.

You don't really find yourself asking "I wonder how Charlton's colt will get on in the classics next season" or making similar statements regarding upcoming big races. Roger Charlton and John Gosden could find themselves cast as the most unlikely brothers since Danny Devito and Big Arnie in a remake of Twins, such is the huge gulf in achievement.

Herculean's full-sister Fair Eva went off track when Charlton ignored the advice of two jockeys who had told him the filly needed 7F and instead he sent her to the Lowther at York to take on 5F horses in a race that is dominated by pure sprinters and is often the kiss of death for the following year's Guineas. Strangely enough Fair Eva was done for toe by more precocious fillies.

I get the impression Charlton prefers talking to listening.

In today's races San Donato and Magna Grecia are a bit weak but I feel money may come for the O'Brien colt as the race approaches. Turgenev is the one they can't seem to give away, out to 6/1 in places now. Phoenix Of Spain is popular but I am just not sure he will turn out to be a Derby sort. If he wins this Too Darn Hot will be skinny for the Guineas.

Good luck today everybody. There will probably be a few head scratching results this afternoon.
 
Donnie efforts,
Foolad and Muntadab can follow up lto wins in competetive heats
Phoenix Of Spain just behind Too Darn Hot looks good form in the Futurity.
 
hi fellas!

cheltenham,2 00:

one,that i really like here is SHANTOU VILLAGE.he ran a very good race in the kerry national last time out,and jumped really well throughout the race.if he can back that form up today,should go very well again,at least e w..

2 35:
hard to pass over redicean,who i have a lot of respect for,but fitness-wise,it may pay to look elsewhere.PADLEYOUROWNCANOE ran a mighty race on his seasonal debut at chepstow last time out,going like the winner in the straight,before touched off by a nicholls improver,who franked the form with a good second on his next start.so,with that run under his belt,he wont lack for fitness today,and can go very well again..

kelso,2 25:

ARIZONA BOUND and bafana blue met already once this season,about three weeks ago,where the latter won with 3 lengths to spare.but,at the weights,its not impossible,that the russell horse can turn the form around today,so he gets a narrow vote here..
 
At The Races balls up as they call favourite Turnberry Isle the winner of the photo finish at 11/8, only to take an advert and return to reveal the 20/1 shot Manjeer had held on by a nose.
 
Grendel said:
At The Races balls up as they call favourite Turnberry Isle the winner of the photo finish at 11/8, only to take an advert and return to reveal the 20/1 shot Manjeer had held on by a nose.
Click to expand...
Bugger. That was one of mine
 
Late money came for San Donato and he did it very nicely. Not smoothly away he then pulled pretty hard at the rear. He had to come widest of all but picked up well and kept on well all the way to the line. He's a small sort but he has a very rapid cadence and looks a sprinter with a decent talent level.
 
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