Saturday 26th January Daily Thread

4.10 Cheltenham Mr Watson 6/1 NAP. Write up to follow but price won't last

 

Agreed it looks a tasty price. Think he'll be 4/1 / 7/2 after tomorrow's race if successful

 

I recon you will get a better price tomorrow. Oscar whiskey has a big following.

 

Gonna play the W/O Fav in the VC chase... Think Williams Wishes stands a cracking chance. Absolutely cruised up LTO but hit the 2nd last and any other horse would have blown its chances but it battled on and won comfortably. Would have been over 10l without that mistake.
The horse is 5/5 over fences and beat Champion Court on heavy ground so that wont be an issue.
Dont have a price yet as far as i can see but will be hoping for around 5/1+ given the presence of Sanctuiare

 

Put Hidden Cyclone up at 9/1 during the week, I thought his only danger was Lambro and thats out now, can still get 7/1 in a place and ill be amazed if he goes off anywhere near as big as that. An absolute class apart from this field and I expect him to give them weight and a good beating.

He went off like a scolded cat in the Lexus and was still bang there with the best 3 milers in Ireland 2 out, it was inevitable that he was going to empty rapidly. I have never seen him do that before and id be surprised if it happens again tomorrow, the drop brack in trip is fine and ill be disappointed if he doesnt win comfy.

On at 33s for the Ryanair aswell.

Mala Beach 13/2 in the maiden hurdle, would have won half the track last time before being hampered and running through the rail turning in. Should be a nice price and will take all the beating.

 

Sprinter scare - Arvika ligeonniere Double

Surely its buying money

 

Not holding back tomorrow, good quality racing finally and we need to play accordingly


Cheltenham

12.40

Theatrical Star e/w 14/1

1.15

Bold Sir Brian 11/2

1.50

Sprinter Sacre 2/9

2.25

Tidal Bay 11/4

3.35

Reve De Sivola 5/2

 

Cheltenham
2.25 Midnight Chase 14/1 e/w
3.35 Crack Away Jack 16/1 e/w & Cross Kennon 50/1 e/w
4.10 Dildar 5/1

 

Boris, let you in on a little secret here, I was contemplating CRACK AWAY JACK being my "horse in bold" tomorrow ;-)

 

Evening guys, selections for tomorrow all Cheltenham

12.40 GULLINBURSTI 6/1 (NB)
1.15 BOLD SIR BRIAN
2.25 GRAND CRUS 4/1 (NAP)
4.10 MR WATSON 5/1

Big priced EW fancy:

1.15 TULLAMORE DEW 25/1
4.10 QUADDICK LAKE 12/1

 

Arvika
SS
Marito
New One

Big fat accumulator courtesy of that scam today. Thanks Stick.

 

Surely Mount Benbulben will have Marito stepped up in trip? Dont think 2/1 is a great bet or anything but if he puts in a decent round he outstays Marito for me.

 

I don't rate Mount Benbulben that highly Boris. You could be right. Will be putting the bet on tomorrow am so will think it through before deciding.

 

Ive always liked Mount Benbulben as you probably know, so I had to back him at 2/1 but I do think he is the most likely winner at the trip, Marito just held him off at 2 miles last time and I know Mount Benbulben needs at least 2 and half, he can be a bit rash with the jumping but hes got a serious engine and if he has a good round tomorrow I think he will take a bit of beating.

Can certainly see why people would consider Marito the safer option tho...

And btw, Texas Jack and Lord Windermere are no mugs either, dodgy wee race, if I was doing an accy I dont think id be brave enough to take one in this

 

4.10 Cheltenham

Mr Watson 6/1 NAP

Won't have as much time as I'd like to write this but I've got to start with the most glaring fact which is A P gets down to 10-3 for this ride which, according to the RP, is 1lb below his lowest riding weight in the past 12 months which I think says all you need to know about this ones chances. Looking at the horse himself, Jonjo O'Neill purchased this 6 year old for £215,000 in April last year after running a very nice 3rd in a valuable bumper in Fairyhouse over in Ireland and based on his hurdling form to date for his new handler I think he could easily be a handicap blot off a mark of 127. He made his debut over hurdles for Jonjo O'Neill when sent off the 6/4 favourite over 2m3f at Market Rasen last November on the back of a 7 month absence where he was keen throughout when buried in behind runners. He travelled very well into the race and looked the winner all over but he found absolutely nothing off the bridle which I would put down to a lack of race sharpness and using up too much energy from the pulling. With the winner of that race yet to reappear, the form of that race looks modest enough but it was still a pretty decent effort. His 2nd hurdles start came at Cheltenham which looks a very hot novice hurdle and I think he ran extremely well to finish as close as he did given how hard he pulled as he was green throughout. Again under McCoy, Mr Watson set off from the front on soft ground over tomorrow's C+D at a pretty pedestrian gallop and he pulled the arms of McCoy for pretty much the entire race. Despite this, he travelled extremely well from the front and was level going over the final hurdle before his exertions throughout the race had taken their toll as McCoy wisely let him come home in his own time after that as he ended up finishing a 6.5L beaten 5th. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Melodic Rendevouz subsequently landing the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle. Although the others in that race haven't gone on to confirm that form, they all came in with a very high level of form so there is no doubt in my mind that this was a very good race. It must be noted, however, that the slow pace certainly caused the runners to finish in a bit of a bunch. Mr Watson really struck me as a horse with a serious engine that day given he was bang there at the last despite being so keen throughout. It was no surprise to see Jonjo O'Neill stick on a hood for his final start and it certainly helped an awful lot as he seemed to settle an awful lot better (was still a bit keen). Once again, Mr Watson attempted to lead from pillar to post under McCoy at Plumpton earlier this month and he did so in very impressive fashion as he absolutely blitzed the field to score by an eased down 8L on the bridle. He probably beat little of note that day but he did so in very taking fashion and his £215,000 purchase certainly made quite a bit more success. Mr Watson is the sort of horse that I think is going to improve significantly with racing and I think he'll improve significantly again from his last run as he should again settle even better and I really think he could be chucked in here off a mark of 127. I know what I've said seems very rushed (because it is) but given that McCoy has gotten down to 10-3 for the ride tells me all I need to know about his chances and if improving again I think he could turn what looks on paper a very tough contest into a procession.

 

You've convinced me. I'll leave him out and go for the treble.