Evening all. At the match tomorrow and will be leaving early so hope you all don't mind the thread being put up a bit early 2.00 Kempton - BABY MIX 13/2 (NAP) A cracking renewal of the Adonis Hurdle and we should know more about leading Triumph hurdle contenders after this race. The last two winners (Soldatino and Zarkandar) both went on to win at Cheltenham. This year I like the look of BABY MIX who looked a very exciting recruit to the Tom George yard when hacking up at Cheltenham in December. It would be fair to say he was very disappointing at the same track last month but he was travelling powerfully until he made a bad mistake and the way he weakened would suggest that was not his true running. I would certainly like to think he is capable of a lot better and if returning to form I fancy him to land this from Sadlers Risk. 2.30 Kempton - ARRAYAN 15/2 This is a horse I followed a good few times over hurdles last season and I think he is an interesting recruit to fences. For me he offers some good value at 15/2 especially as he may well be able to get his own way out in front. 3.05 Kempton - MICHEL LE BON 5/1 Lightly raced type who shaped well in the Hennessy for a long way following his return from injury. Paul Nicholls back amongst the winners and this horse is the least exposed in tomorrows line up. Hopefully he will run a nice race. 3.40 Kempton - TERRE DU VENT 10/1 Very interesting recruit to hurdling having shown good form in listed and group company on the level in France. I really like it when Tom George pitches them in against good horses first time out and for me this one offers some good value at 10/1. 4.20 Chepstow - HANDY ANDY 16/1 E.W This is a horse that hasn't been right since his victory over a horse I really rate (OUR FATHER) at Newbury last March. However his stable are now in decent form and I wouldn't think a mark of 120 is beyond him if returning to form.
Evening RV, have to admit I looked at the Adonis and thought the same as you Baby Mix definitely the value call as I just cannot have that as true running last time out. If you watch that race again, he makes the mistake I think 3 out, and then watch his action very closely after that in comparison with Grumeti- there is a stark difference and there is no doubt the stumble 3 out affected Baby Mix. That does not mean to say he would have won, but he was going strongly and I believe the flat Kempton track will suit tomorrow. So yeah, 2.00 Kempton BABY MIX (NB) As for the others tomorrow: Fairyhouse 1:55: LOCH ARD 14/1 e.w Yes we know that MINSK is very well thought of and was improving last season, but he wasnt a superstar on the flat and it is simply not plain sailing to go from Irish Cesarewitch winner to Triumph hurdle winner, especially off one run. I usually like the profiles of unexposed flat horses who come to jumping and develop their careers, a la Zarkandar, and I think LOCH ARD fits the bill perfectly here. He has placed maiden form behind some smart Irish flat horses who have run well off marks of over 100, and I just think that due to the very cramped price of Minsk, this Mullins debutant has been totally and utterly overlooked. 4.00 Newcastle: AGENT ARCHIE 10/11 (NAP) I think this fella might be very smart indeed and tomorrow might tell us whether or not he is Cheltenham bound, so he really ought to be looking to win pretty well tomorrow. Beat Ingleby Spirit without being fully extended by 7 lengths, and that looks very nice form indeed now. Might possibly be shorter when the prices become available tomorrow so bare that in mind. 3.05 Kempton: MICHEL LE BON 5/1 I think this rates good value as Paul Nicholls really likes the horse. He was put straight into the Hennessey after a long time off and that tells you how highly he is rated at home. He was going very well until a mistake and would have been a very good comerback run. Nicholls has schooled this horse a lot and hopefully he will bounce back in just his 3rd chase tomorrow! 3.40 Kempton: DODGING BULLETS 9/2 I think this is a similar Pearl Swan style tactic from Nicholls- he is trying to find out where this horse is in relation to the top Triumph candidates and he takes on Grumeti here. Dodging Bullets was very progressive towards the back end of last season and I think he might be one to take well to hurdles. Interesting that they go this route IMO.
Good luck with Baby Mix tomorrow fellas but I think the Triumph market will get a real shake up after the performance I expect to see from SADLERS RISK tomorrow. The horse for my hard earned tomorrow though is CHARM SCHOOL 11-4 Chepstow 4.20. I think this horse is progressing really nicely and think the handicapper has let him in pretty lightly. Looks certain to go off shorter!
My three fancies for tomorrow... 2.00 - Kempton - Sorry Rainbow but Im going to have to go against you, DILDAR is by far the classiest horse in the race and although his jumping on his hurdling debut wasn't the greatest he picked up really well to win the race. Im expecting him to come on for the race and Im also expecting Nicholls and his team to have improved his technique over hurdles in time for this. His flat form is very good and Im hopeful His speed tomorrow will be the difference. Im fearing Sadlers Risk who looks progressive, His last run was impressive but form isn't exactly mindblowing from that race. Baby Mix should get his favoured ground after dissapointing last time out on softer ground but I don't think hes faced anything like he will face tomorrow and his form in beating Hinterland hasn't really worked out as he was also dissapointing last time out. As for the rest Une Artiste is giving glowing reports after reading Geraghty's blog but I think the ground will go against her and I think Dildar will take this on route to Cheltenham... 2.40 - Chepstow - 5 runner race where there is bound to be no value for TEAFORTHREE but I expect him to fully dominate this field, He can be forgiven for his flop over Christmas where he was in some serious company with the likes of Grands Crus and Bobs Worth, But on ratings hes head and shoulders above this lot and I think the forecast with Minella Stars is probably the bet of the race... 3.05 - Kempton - Not the best Racing Plus Chase I've seen in years gone by but should make intresting viewing with the likes of PLANET OF SOUND and Michel Le Bon aswell as Nacarat all running in it tomorrow. I expect the Hennessy runner up to maintain his form from that race running off a similar mark and hopefully be just a little too good for these. Reports from watching the Racing Post feature on Hobbs yard report him to be in good form and there hopeful of a good run. I think Nacarat will also redeem himself here and I think the forecast between the two is a decent bet for this race, Michel Le Bon could be open to improvement from his Hennessy run but it might be worthwhile having some of the 7/1 eachway now if you fancy him as I expect him to shorten, Espcially if Nicholls/Walsh kickoff in good style tomorrow. Nicholls banished any doubts about his yard with a treble today...
Defo the biggest hype horse of this NH season ................... he'll do well to win tomorrow. Can't wait for the race mind
Hoping for a big run from Dildar too tomoz, always a good race and hopefully he will have schooled well at home. Eider looks a good challenge but Mister Marker will take all the beating and Posh Bird looks the main danger although his low eight is a trends concern RP Chase will see a big run from Deep Purple. What is happening with Simonsig LOL
Toppy - nice to have a good judge like yourself agree . Lets hope for a big run. Best of luck to all of you taking on Baby Mix - a cracking race. Must say I am disappointed with the action overall tmz and glad I am going to the toon game
My mind is boggling over the adonis tomorrow- 1st I though Dildar but then thought his jumping was too green, then Sadlers Risk and now thinking Baby Mix am baffled!
Good card at Kempton tomorrow and this is my attempt at going through it, 2.00 Une Artiste 5/1 2.30 Arrayan 6/1 3.05 Plant Of Sound 4/1 3.35 Grumeti 10/11 4.10 Duke Of Lucca 9/1 4.45 Ashbrittle 4/1(NAP) 5.15 Virginia Ash Newcastle 3.25 Portrait King 9/2 Best of luck.
Got a feeling, after nicholls weekend last week he wil have a cracker this one, so have backed 3 Nicholls runners, Michel Le Bon, Dodging Bullets, Cristal Bonus and RV & toppy you have swayed me on my £10 free bet with betfair on Baby Mix, hope you two are right
Anyone else think Wales in the handicap betting (-3pts) against Engerland in the rugby tomorrow is STONKING good value at Evens?! I do- that's buying money as I'd expect Wales to destroy them. In the horses expect Minsk, whilst hardly a working man's price, to prove up to the billing. Good luck all
BOS, i managed to get wales at +2.5 10 days ago at 10/11. I think you could be right but i dont think its a wheelbarrow job. Tuilagi will make a hell of a difference and the backline looks more balanced. Morgan at 8 is a very good move and he will make a big difference. That said England have the worst second row pairing in my lifetime, an area where England have always been traditionally very strong. That concerns me alot and if Wales can get 50% possesion they will win at a canter.
Would guess Pricewise selections as ASHBRITTLE 4.45 KEMPTON BABY MIX 2.00 KEMPTON but surely not as he will have a one in the 3.40 ? - MICHEL LE BON looks the obvious pricewise type for that race
2.00 Kempton. Sadler's Risk. Unless Dildar is something special, he should win and challenge for favouritism in The Triumph. Best Price 1.3/1 (Betfair) 2.55 Newcastle. Conquisto. He has run well at Class 1 & 2 level- only 5 lengths behind Overturn in The Swinton Hurdle, getting 7lbs. He had a pipe opener earlier this month and could cause a shock in this average Class 2. Worth an Each Way bet. Best Price 41/1 (Betfair) 4.20 Chepstow. Dream Esteem(Nap). Charm School will be well supported after winning last time- but he had previously finished 6 lengths behind Zafranagar at levels. On his seasonal debut, Dream Esteem ran Zafranagar to a neck- giving 10 lbs. He gives only 6lbs to Charm School. At an early 5/1 (Betfair) he's an outstanding Each Way bet and will contract tomorrow. 4.45 Kempton. Woolfall Treasure ran well for me last time in a Bumper and now reverts again to Hurdles. He should go well. However, the early 9/2 (Betfair) on Ashbrittle(NB) should be taken. There's no way he'll be that price tomorrow.
Wales are awesome in full flow Beefy...really well furnished in all areas tbh. Not sure if SW is playing tomorrow,which is always crucial. Aside from that,how good is George North...completely unplayable when on song.He is what the Southern Hemisphere have been producing for a while,big and brutal direct running,skillfull offloading match winners. We are playing Rugby that one would try and stop any prospective rugby <15 y-o's from watching. Phase after phase after phase of slow ball and zero intent!..ffs!!!...I'd like to strangle that f*****g England apologist ameoba Brian Moore,who lost his other cell in some f*****g imaginary scrum in his own wardrobe...tosser. Utter crud..gruesome and grueling garbage...Rob Andrew et al FO. We used to be the World Champions not so long ago.
