8.45 Lingfield Buzkashi 14/1 NB Really like the look of David Lanigan's 3 year old who I think could run a massive race tomorrow. Previously with Roger Varian, this 3 year old moved to the excellent David Lanigan stable before making her handicap debut off a mark of 74 back in May and I think she looks a rather well handicapped animal. Buzkashi made her debut last July in what turned out to be a useful looking maiden as she finished a 2L beaten 3rd at Newmarket's July course over the 7f trip. Sitting close enough to the pace, Buzkashi got slightly outpaced before looking a bit green when asked to quicken on as she stayed on towards the finish and it was a very promising debut in my eyes. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Fallen For You going down by only 0.5L in a Group 2 on her next start and she is a very talented animal for the John Gosden team. The 2nd Rhytmic was a very impressive 3.75L winner on her next start which solidifies the form. On her next start, Buzkashi was upped to 1m and sent off favourite in a similar event at Leicester. After occupying a sit just behind the leaders, Buzkashi was angled off the rail to make her challenge when she clipped heels and stumbled very badly with the horse in front of her and she was lucky not to go down. After that, she was given an easy time of things by jockey Neil Callan as she went down by just under 4L. She hadn't been asked anything at that stage and whether she would have won is a mystery but she certainly would have gone close. The winner that day My Queenie was officially rated 93 before that contest after getting beaten 1.75L in her previous start in a Group 3 and for Buzkashi to go off favourite says a lot about how she was fancied prior to that race. My Queenie has proved to be a very solid performer in the high 80s since and it was clearly a strong race. Moreover the 4th Saytara, who was a debutant that day, won on her only subsequent beating Dulkashe by 1L and that rival has since won off 77 so the form of that race stacks up well. On her final 2 year old start, Buzkashi ran in the Tatersalls Million 2YO Fillies Trophy and I think it again demonstrates that connections hold her in high regard. After getting rather wound up in the prelims beforehand, she was given a sympathetic ride by Steve Drowne when he knew her chance was gone. In truth she was probably outclassed that day, but the 7f trip and her getting fractious prior to the race starting certainly wouldn't have aided her cause. Her last start came a couple of months ago on the back of a 7 month break in a first time hood. On her debut for Lanigan and indeed her handicap debut, she was stepped up to 1m1f for the first time at Sandown where she finished a 10.5L beaten 5th. However, I think her performance was much better than the bare result and I thought it was a rather likeable effort. Under today's jockey Ted Durcan, Buzkashi was settled way off the pace towards the back of the field and it was clear turning in she way too far back. Although she wouldn't have had a chance with the winner regardless, Buzkashi certainly would have finished much closer if she sat closer to the pace. Nevertheless, she stayed on rather eye catchingly through beaten horses under hands and heels riding and she certainly looked as if she wasn't the finished article yet as she was running a bit all over the place before the penny dropped late on. The form of that race looks very useful considering it was a Class 5 event with the wide margin winner Miss Cato running a very good 2nd behind Great Heavens in a Listed contest who subsequently romped to a Group 2 victory. On top of this, Miss Cato actually ran a very good 4th in a Group 1 over in the states earlier this month. Looking at Buzkashi's last race in more detail, the 2nd won well upped in Class off a 3lb higher mark on her only subsequent start whilst the 4th and 6th have also run well since. Tomorrow she makes her AW debut at Lingfield and is upped to 1m2f which is a huge plus in my eyes. I definitely think she is going to be a middle distance horse in the future and I see her stepping up to 1m4f in the near future. She should definitely come on along for her reappearance run and I think that she will be racing a little closer to the pace tonight as the race got away from her on her last start. Her handicap mark of 74 remains unchanged and I definitely think that she is more than capable of winning off her current mark and I think she has a lot of progression left. The three at the head of the market currently are all unexposed and could just prove to be too well handicapped but Buzkashi is unexposed herself with only 4 starts to date and her 14/1 price certainly massively understates her chances. She represents David Lanigan's only runner at the track tomorrow night and its very encouraging that he has a 28% strike rate with his 3 year old. Ted Durcan and Lanigan's jockey of choice comes here for only ride also from Newmarket so I think it looks rather significant. With a good draw in stall 5 that should Durcan to settle her where he wants, I think she's going to run a very big race tomorrow night with the hood left off and if sharper for her reappearance I think she could be a major force to be reckoned with.
Evening ladies and gentlemen, hit the bar a few times today with a fair number of 2nds a big priced 3rd and a 6/1 winner so all in all small profits,it pays to study so i will try again whilst I have a little time on my hands tonight (girls night out home alone). Ascot 1.35 SOHRAAB 10/1 (EW) runs off a winning mark and has shown signs of winning a race lately, interestingly he steps up to 7f which may be as a result of him showing signs lately of wanting a step up in distance and could go close, small EW bet. 2.45 ARNOLD LANE 9/1 (EW) struggled in the Heavy ground LTO when going off as 6/4 Fav, didnt get going till the 6f marker but couldnt pick up quick enough, the ground tomorrow and extra furlong should be more to his liking and i expect a much better run. 3.20 FANUNALTER 33/1 (EW) i cant be having Carlton House at such short odds over 8f, so im going for a little bit of a long shot, formerly with Marco Botti he had some decent group form noticeably he got to within 3/4l of Dick Turpin this time last year over C&D, his new stable havent done a great deal with him; however, i dont think he is here to make up the numbers and at his best is plenty good enough to go close again. 3.55 EXCELLENT GUEST 12/1 (EW) ran a cracker LTO over C&D when a fast finishing 2nd in the Royal Hunt Cup at 33/1 and should run a decent race here tomorrow in this lottery of a race, but is a worthy EW shout 4.35 NATHANIEL 3/1 cany find anything that should sto phim retaining his title here, although at a bigger price MASKED MARVEL 33/1 might be worth a little EW money. Newmarket in the 2.00 ELBE 8/1 (EW) is too big a price for a Sir Henry Cecil Filly who is FTO in Handicap Company, In the 2.30 STEPS 3/1 is only 1lb worse off from his last win and showed distinct signs of returning to winning ways LTO at York. 3.45 KYLACHY STAR 10/1 (EW) hasnt won for a while but has shown promise this year and has dropped to winning mark. 5.35 TOUCH GOLD 9/4 won LTO like a horse that is till progressing and with plenty of scope. Ripon 3.05 IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS 10/1 (EW) 3.40 GUARANTEE11/8 4.20 JONNY LESTERS HAIR 4/1 4.55 YPRES 5/1 Market Rasen 2.50 AUSTRALIA DAY 12/1 (EW) 3.25 TIGER O TOOLE 12/1 (EW) 5.15 VERY STYLISH 9/1 (EW) Good luck to one and all tomorrow
The 3/1 about Nathaniel must be taken. Though hopefully at least one bookie will beat that price in the morning, at least for a short while..
CASTLES IN THE AIR - (Ascot 15:55) 50/1 Six pounds lower than when he won this in 2010 TAKEITFROMALADY - (Ascot, 14:45) 7/1 As my fans will know, i put this up last time out when winning. Confirmed juvenile form when landing Winsdor handicap on reappearance, and best effort yet when winning in mud there 5 days ago, running on strongly. Stiffer test will suit, and much respected. GLORY CITY - (Newmarket, 16:25) 5/1 Well thought of youngster who ran a lovely debut and should improve with that run under his belt. JOB DONE!!
The above is from the KG thread, so you may have already read my views. Really interesting shouts as ever guys and it feels ironic that after all my Nathaniel support, many of you are backing him tomorrow whilst I make the (potentially) stupid decision not to back him. I just have a feeling that Sea Moon is the sort of horse who can prevent a strong stayer stealing the racwe from the front- SM quickens, stays, and keeps galloping and that is crucuial tomorrow. I think he has shaped brilliantly for a long time and the ground tomorrow falls just about perfect for him. I migt be ewally badly wrong and may the best horse win, but as I explained in the build up, I am with Sea Moon tomorrow. It might come down to who can quicken up when Nathaniel stretches things and Sea Moon can do that with his stride.
OUR BOY JACK should be close in the first, but Pip Tutty likes hers Viva Ronaldo, however OBJ is fitter, Glee has a squeak on Hawkeyethenoo Im in the Nathaniel camp and i also like Levitae to win at NEWMARKET Last Time Oakwell ran i was told it will win next time out, but Richie Mac has gone west instead of south so have a look at what he is on there, Bollin Felix, Whyareyouasking and Harrys Whim all seem to have EW shouts but ive not been told Stay Frosty
Cracking jumps card at Market Rasen and I expect another bold showing from Australia Day in the Summer Hurdle. He dotted up in this 2 years ago off 135 and, although 13lbs higher today, he can lead them a merry dance again. AP can take the Summer Plate on Eastlake but the best bet on the card has to be Charlie Mann's Greyfriars Drummer (NAP) in the 2.15 who completed the hat-trick cosily last time out and will appreciate the longer trip today. The feature race at Cartmel is the Cumbria Crystal Trophy at 5.25 and sees a rare Nicky Henderson runner at the track, Lieutenant Miller, and a couple of interesting horses who switch back from chasing to hurdling, Degas Art and Charminster. But they may all have to go some to beat Victor Leudorum who has won 4 novice hurdles on the bounce for Charlie Mann and, although the handicapper has taken few chances in allotting him a mark of 136, the excellent Gavin Sheehan takes off a valuable 7. I also expect a much improved performance from Danedream today with connections opting to go to Ascot today in preference to coming to my local track here in Berlin, Hoppegarten, for tomorrow's Group 1 race here.
Right a few today, looks a nice day of racing. Should probably start with the big one but if I put up my selection then you might not read the rest of my post. So I'll start with my Newmarket selection which is a 4/1 shot called Vainglory who has twice run into Trade Commissioner. Finished 2nd to the Gosden horse lto ahead of Fulbright (who didn't stay to be fair) and Captain Bertie who subsequently ran a huge race at Newmarket. Over at Ascot I find Bannock interesting dropped to handicap company with Fallon booked. Nice price too at 33/1. The 2.45 is a race I'm really looking forward too. To me the front 4 in the market all look at least 4-5 lbs well in. Should be a cracker. I won't be playing this race but I have sided with Fire Ship in the league because of the Buick booking and the bigger price than the fav. I'm taking on Carlton house over the mile with 6/1 shot Tullius. Ew banditry also occuring with 8 in the race and a few firms paying a 1/4 the place. In the big one I'm firmly in the St Nicholas Abbey camp. Nathaniel is the yard stick. Gosden is in good form and the horse will run his race. He's the one they have to beat. SNA is hit and miss but I do think he's the best horse in the race and if firing on all cylinders I think he'll win. He doesn't always but at 9/2 I'll take a chance that today he runs to his level. I really can't see what Sea Moon has done to warrant such a short price either, I think he's a hype horse. Happy to hold my hands up if he wins I can see why people would fancy him but he shouldn't be the same price as Nathaniel on what he's beaten.
don't know when you got back oddy but good to see ya again, hope Mallorca was splendid and that you can still fit into your trousers!
GG - got back Thursday, brown as a berry and mega-relaxed Weather was brilliant, hardly saw a cloud and 30°C every day. Managed to stay reasonably trim () Good racing today, happy that C4 are showing Market Rasen
3.55 Castles In The Air This horse looks overpriced for me, he is a previous winner of this race off a higher mark (7lbs lower than that mark today) and whilst he hasn't been showing his best form in the couple of runs he has had this season, I think he can be forgiven for both efforts. His seasonal reappearance was at Musselburgh in a race that he was never given a chance to get into by the claiming Shane Kelly, he didn't pick up that day when asked and he perhaps needed the run. He then went to Royal Ascot and had the assistance of Richard Hughes in the saddle, and that day he had an awful passage in running. He found trouble on numerous occasions and has to be forgiven for his finishing position that day. He was dropped two pounds for that effort and with another three being claimed off his back I would hope for a much better run from him today. Add in the scintillating form of the Fahey (15 winners in last fortnight and amazing form in last two days) yard and I think there are worse 28/1 chances running today. Agree?
Lucky e/w 15 amd Accy Our Boy Jack 6/1 1:35 Ascot Fire Ship 15/2 NAP 2:45 Ascot Lightning Cloud 9/1 3:55 Ascot Buzkashi 8/1 (ROTO) 8:45 Lingfield Also took a combination forecast on the KG with Nathaniel, Sea Moon, SNA and Danedream Well done to weloveyourtips yesterday quality tipping and I managed to get onto Street Power at 20s keep up the good work
Trainer says: "We're claiming off Castles In The Air with Raul Da Silva. The horse is in good form but the handicapper has him by the throat. That said he could run well in a race like this, dropped in and getting plenty of cover. You can forget his last run, he ran into all sorts of trouble at Royal Ascot, and if they go a gallop and he settles here he wouldn't be without a chance." Sounds like Master Da Silva needs to get him cover and produce him late. With 28 runners he'll need to be on top of his game or it could be another hard luck story
i wouldnt mind *PIPPING* her little *TUTTY* btw---WELOVEYOURTITS-----WHY DONT YE TRY THROWING A FEW MORE DARTS--ONE IS SURE TO HIT THE TARGET--- all i have to say is-----maaaaaaaaasive eway bet on VAN ELLIS today
