3.35 Lingfield Greensward 9/1 I really like the look of Greensward as I think all signs point to a very big run. Greensward is a recent recruit to the Mike Murphy stable, one of my favourite yards, from the Brian Meehan stable. Greensward is a relatively unexposed 6 year old with 19 starts to date who clearly showed he is still improving with 2 wins from his last 3 starts after a 4 month break since September. Murphy is a trainer who seems to find immediate improvement from his new horses and after his debut for the yard last month where he was slowly away and badly hampered, an effort I am completely ignoring. Before his debut effort for the yard, Greensward had 2 wins from 2 on the AW and although he's never raced at Lingfield before he is clearly unexposed on a surface that he thrives on. Greensward races here off a mark of 91 and I think this is a very attainable mark considering he won off only a 4lb lower mark at Chester September in a Class 3 event and off an impressive victory in a Class 4 event at Kempton off a 6lb lower mark the same month. Should add that for the victory at Kempton 3 starts back Greensward was ridden by a first time rider in the shape of Jade Muggeridge. Although it was a fantastic ride which was timed excellently and I am not one second discounting the great achievement, when analysing this race for future form she obviously and understandably hadn't yet attained the ability to use the whip in a race situation. Thus, I believe the 1.75L victory could perhaps have been a much larger margin if under the hands of a professional jockey. Tomorrow Greensward is stepped up to 1m for the 2nd time tomorrow and I not only think that he will stay this trip but will improve for it (well held on first go over this trip). Although this is will be his toughest test to date stepped up to Class 2 level for only the 2nd time (finished 2.5L 6th on turf in other event), only Mias Boy and Night Lily showing proven form at this level so it perhaps represents an easier race than the grade suggests. Current favourite Lockantanks, although clearly on the upgrade, has to defy a career high mark and having never won in a grade higher than Class 4 and must be taken on in my eyes. Kieran O'Neill takes the ride for Murphy and will take a handy 3lb off his back. The pair teamed up to a recent success on Rock Anthem recently and with the trainer having a couple of winners from his relatively small string in the past few weeks his string look in good order. Murphy is an infrequent visitor to Lingfield but has an excellent 3 wins from 8 visits to the track so he only seems to come here with horses that have great chances in his eyes. I see Night Lily as the biggest danger with Ladbrokes a standout 8/1 which looks huge for a Listed Winner who ran a very good race at Deauville earlier this month and I'll be having a small saver on her too. With the plum draw in stall 1, I really fancy Greensward to run a massive race and although I missed the 14s earlier on I still think the 9/1 on offer is massively overpriced.
One I really like tomorrow is David Arbuthnots SHUIL ROYALE 4-1 2.45 Wincanton. Has slipped to a mark that he really should be winning off and if the yard can find a modicum of form then this one should oblige. Those that know me from other forums know how much I think of KENTFORD GREY LADY and I hope she continues her progress tomorrow. The form has been well and truly franked recently and I know how much the yard rate her. My worry is that they seem to be slipping out of form recently as highlighted by Highland Lodge's dismal display last Saturday! In the Peter Marsh I will be having a small wager on MON MOME as I think its the one horse in the race that will truly relish the conditions. Good luck all.
3.30 Haydock- The Sawyer E/W 10/1 Massive value at double-figure odds to take advantage of a falling handicap mark in the Merseyside mud. Bob Buckler's inmate has just turned 12 but the fire seemingly still burns brightly despite him not getting his head in front for the best part of two years. That came off a mark of 134 and now just three pounds lower, it is hard to argue that he is exceptionally well-in considering his rising years. But he has been set tough assignments this season at Ascot, Aintree and Cheltenham so this comfortably looks his best chance of regaining the winning thread. He showed his usual zest to run on past some tiring rivals up the hill at Cheltenham last time. His attitude is not on the wane so it might just be a case of giving him some lesser rivals to compete against. He has some ground to make up on Mon Mome from that race on New Year's Day but does get a slight pull at the weights and I would be keener on him to run his race. The Sawyer handles testing ground while Nathan Sweeney seems to get a very good tune out of him and his five-pound claim takes his racing weight down to just 10-3. Six of his eight career victories have come in January. So a at least place should be well in his reach!!
2.35 Ascot- Pateese E/W 14/1 Pateese looks well worth another chance at ascot at 14/1. He won easily first-time-out at Sandown and was then sent off favourite for the red-hot Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham on the back of that display. He got involved in a bit of a bumping and being blocked in on the home bend at that did for his chance and he ran better than his finishing position suggests in horrible ground at Haydock last time. Conditions should be more suitable on this occasion and his chance looks to have been underestimated in what looks a wide-open contest. Another one look at is Smad Place a big fancy for last years Triump Hurdle after impressive wins @ Newbury and Wincanton. He is coming back from a 300 + day lay off but is good hurdler!
Tomorrow we get to see more of the sprint series at Lingfield and I really rather like Alderbrook in the second heat, a good run last time and I think this race will be run at a pace to suit it more. I think it will go off shorter than the 6/1 currently and I think it will win going away at the line. I have backed it EW as I am wary about Showboating who also went into the notebook after last weekend.
The last @ wincanton looks a real contest - the 2 main horses - Its A Gimme - Who is in my gg.com tracker- he won very impressivley last time out beating Colour Squadron. But will go off a very short odds on favourite.Then we have the unknown quantity of Unpartou a horse I am very excited about, is his 1st run in england since joining the Nicholls camp. This will be a very tough race for him and my head goes for the favourite but my heart says I think we may see upset or at least we will see what we have in store for the future of this 4yo french gelding!
Also in the first heat, two who are overpriced are Loyal Royal and the selection Steelcut, who at 18/1 is far too big. Another who was finishing from off a slow pace when we last saw him, and in a race that David Evans likes to win I think he is one of a few who should really battle out the finish. The yards other runner is interesting but Steelcut for me is very interesting, especially with the shocking jockey off his back now.
Here my comp picks which I've put in a â¬1 Lucky 31: 1.35 Wincanton Johns Spirit - Jonjo O'Neil's gelding won a Class 3 novice hurdle back in October before making his handicap debut at Bangor towards the end of November off a mark of 121, finishing a head 2nd to Grey Gold. Although the winner has not been seen since, the 3rd placed horse that day, Shadows Lengthen, has since won off 122 and finished a 10-length 3rd today at Catterick off a mark of 126. Johns Spirit then went on to run in a Class 4 novices hurdle at Towcester on boxing day where he was beaten half a length by Noel Chance's Gore's Island, to whom he was giving 10lbs. Gore's Icland has since scored again, beating a Henderson hotpot at Doncaster. Overall I think Johns Spirit's form has an extremely solid look to it and 128 looks a very workable mark here. Richie Mclernan is again on board and I think this one will go very, very close. 2.45 Wincanton Billy Merriot - Paul Nicholls' Dr. Massini gelding makes his handicap debut here off a mark of 116 (with the excellent Ryan Mahon taking off 3lbs) after 3 runs in novice company. After a first disappointing effort at Kempton (where he made a bad mistake 3 out and was eased) he went to Bangor and ran into the impressive Magnifique Etoile and then his most recent outing, on New Year's Day over 2m3f where he ran a fine 2nd to David Pipe's African Broadway, who he ran to half a length in recept of 7lbs. I would have African Broadway as a 130+ horse based on his running with Fingal Bay so I think Billy Merriot can give a bold showing here off 116. Barrie Burn warrants respect but he is up 13lbs for a 1 length victory last time out and the Henderson horse appeared a non-stayer last time out. 1.00 Ascot Ackertac 10/1 - the Twister's gelding gets the cheek pieces and a drop back to 2m3f for his return to handicap company and I think he could spring a surprise at a nice price. His best hurdles form was over further (behind Cross Kennon and Bobs Worth) but his run over today's course and distance 3 runs ago, when he finished a close-up 2nd to Michael Flips (who won off 137 the other day) reads really well. Ackertac is a good jumper who makes very few errors, and I think has last 2 runs were over too long a trip on too lively going. Back over 2m3f on slower ground tomorrow I think his good jumping will prove a real asset and off a mark 0f 129 I think he holds a decent chance. I would price him up at around half his current odds so to me he represents a good value bet. 2.05 Ascot Our Girl Salley 3/1 - looked back to something like her best last time out when taking a Grade 3 very cheekily at Leopardstown. I think the step up to 3 miles will be right up her street, as will underfoot conditions with plenty of juice. Although the favourite is respected I am wary of the Lavelle yard's general form at the moment and I think Prunella Dobbs mare will prove too strong for them on this occaision. 2.35 Ascot Ciceron 6/1 - I was deeply, deeply impressed by the way Ciceron won at Sandown 2 weeks ago, scything through the field under a very cool Aiden Coleman ride to turn a hotly contested handicap into a demonstration. The 3rd placed, Cotillon, won today and 5th placed Lucaindubai took a big handicap last Saturday at Kempton off the same rating. Today is 2f further than Sandown but the way Ciceron tanked along and pulled past Havingotascoobydoo at Sandown before powering away up the hill he really looks ready for a step up in trip. He is raised 7lbs for his Sandown win but to me he won it with so much class and authority that he will take some stopping here.
Obviously Allee Garde may be a tough nut to crack in the 1.40 at Nass. He's put up what i consider to be massively improved chasing form when compared to his hurdle and bumper form. However, that one is 10/11 and Willie runs another horse who I was very excited about last season with a view to his chasing career. The jockey bookings suggest Allee Garde is the likelier of the two to win however, at 6/1 in a small and beatable field I think Raptor is quite a decent proposition. This horse ran very well last time out until tipping up. He went to the front early doors in that Grade One and I think if he jumps as well as he did and if Emmett can judge the pace well he might be able to hold off the challenge of Allee Garde towards the finish. I'd say that Allee Garde's rating is based upon getting round the course whilst Raptor's is a good few pounds lower partly because he fell. He certainly wasn't looking tired when he went down. It was a heavy fall though so there's every chance that he could need a run or two to clear his head and regain confidence. However, i'd rather take 6/1 than 10/11 so i'm on Raptor.
'woolcombe folly' not that im trying to put you off Unpartou,but i'm a member of the timeform betfair racing club that own the horse,and Nicholls has stated for all they don't know how good the horse could be,because it's not showing alot at home.I think they are using 2moro to see where they stand for the future,to quote the website P.N has said Unpartou is playing for a place at best,and that he can't see the fav getting beat.
Quel just typed this up on word. Hope you don't mind just noticed you put him up as I was about to paste it in here. 1.40 Naas – RAPTOR 6/1 Although there are only five runners here I am still looking forward to this Grade 2 Novice chase. Allee Garde currently heads the market at 10/11. This Willie Mullins trained 7yo gelding has some nice pieces of form, most notably when chasing home the impressive Last Installment at Leopardstown back in December. He is open to further improvement but I simply can’t have him at those odds. At a much bigger price I like the look of his stablemate RAPTOR, a progressive type who has taken to fences well so far. Although he fell last time out he had jumped most of his fences very well, this was in the same race Allee Garde finished third in. The selection came down 3 out when travelling as well as anything in the race. He had previously won a Beginners chase at Punchestown over 2m4f shaping as if 3m would be perfect for him. The way he travelled at Leopardstown would suggest this could be the case and I am very hopeful of a massive run tomorrow.
Nass 2.15 - Midnight Game I've got to be taking Dylan Ross on at 11/10 but which one? Distant Memories was almost top class on flat and won his debut hurdle nicely enough. On general running ability this should be a walk in the park for him. However, he faces a Mullins horse who has a big reputation but hasn't really hit the heights that have been expected so far. The form of his win last time out received a timely boost this week when Joxer beat the very good bumper horse Allure of Illusion. The pair were well clear at the finish and to be fair it was a very good run by Joxer. Given that Midnight Game is slightly bigger than Distant Memories at 5/2 and 9/4 respectively and taking into account the comparative quality of the form I'd say the Mullins horse is the fairly confident call with 2lbs less to carry.
12.40 Haydock – OSCAR NOMINEE 9/4 and 25/1 Supreme Novices Hurdle Only three run here which is rather disappointing but Oscar Nominee is a horse I really like and if he can get the better of Cinders and Ashes tomorrow I will be really impressed. I backed him in both bumper starts last season and put him in my GG alert afterwards. He looked rather clueless in both starts but shaped with plenty of promise. He looked a totally different horse on his hurdling debut at Southwell where he smashed the field by 27 lengths. It would be fair to say those were inferior rivals but the 2nd has a rating of 122 which gives the form a very solid look. I just feel there is any amount of improvement to come from this horse and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put in an impressive performance tomorrow and then be cut for the Supreme. I will back him tomorrow at 9/4 (hoping racing goes ahead) and don’t mind taking a chance on him for the Supreme at 25s. 3.30 Haydock TAKE THE BREEZE 9/1 (NAP) I will keep this short as there is a strong possibility that racing will not even go ahead tomorrow. I really like the look of TAKE THE BREEZE who could be well handicapped off a mark of 142 with Harry Derham taking off 7lbs. He will relish the conditions and should really appreciate the step up to 3m. He will certainly be staying on towards the end of the race and I am quite confident that he can win this. 2.05 Ascot – OUR GIRL SALLEY 3/1 A really good race this one. I have been very impressed with Kentford Grey Lady this season but I can’t back her at 6/4 in such a competitive heat. She is certainly open to further improvement but she needs to pull out more again. Paul Nicholls’s runner Violin Davis is 11lbs better off with Kentford Grey Lady for a 7 length defeat last time out and is entitled to get a lot closer tomorrow. However the one I like the look of is Our Girl Salley, her trainer stated she has been brought along slowly this campaign to get fit for the Grade 3 she won last time out and also for this race. She is a class act on her day and this extra half mile shouldn’t be beyond her. Barry Gerraghty has won on this mare 4 times from the five times he has ridden her and can hopefully add to that tally tomorrow.
Quel . Interesting choice with Midnight Game. Good race that one. Dylan Ross is a class act but doesn't seem to go through with it, has the blinkers on tomorrow though. Distant Memories won with ease on hurdling debut. Midnight Game getting better and a good victory over Joxer last time out. A close race can't pick one
It's a tight call but just think Midnight Game may be one to improve and I don't trust the form of Dylan Ross' race last time out. If you put a line through that one his form's not much better than the others. If Distant Memories can replicate the form of his flat career he would probably win any NH race you put him in but that win just isn't working out all that well. Quite like Oscar Nominee myself now you've stuck up your reasons. 1.45 Haydock StanJames.com Champion Hurdle Trial Has there ever been a more inappropriately named race given the entrants??? That's got to be a blow to organisers.
