Saturday 17th September- Daily Thread

Evening all - got footy tomorrow so sticking up the thread now. Will add some more selections later on. Good luck to you all

2.20 Newmarket GLEE 11-2 (Forecast Price)

I really like the chances of GLEE in this race tomorrow, she is a filly I have put up a fair few times now as a bet but I do feel she has everything in her favour tomorrow and can strike in what looks a poor race. Glee started her racing career at Windsor when finishing runner up to the above average Angels Will Fall (now rated 104) with these two pulling clear from the remainder of the field. Glee made no mistake at the second time of asking when getting the better of a fair class 5 maiden field. She did it well under a cheeky Richard Hughes ride getting up close home to beat Falls Of Lora. That filly has gone on to better things and managed to win a conditions race at Ascot off a mark of 90 last time out.

Since her first two creditable efforts Glee hasn’t really went on to achieve what I thought she was capable of. She only managed to finish 10th of 15 on her handicap debut at Glorious Goodwood, this was seen as a disappointing effort considering she looked to have got in lightly off a mark of 78. She travelled well in to the race that day and looked to hold every chance2f from home but didn’t pick up as expected. She was hampered around a furlong from home and whilst she was beaten at the time I do feel that she would have been a lot closer considering William Buick eased her right down after the interference. The selection followed up this effort with a fair performance at Newmarket when running 4th of 10 in a Class 2 Nursery. Again she travelled well but didn’t seem to get home over the 7f distance. Following this I was most surprised to see her stepped up to 1m again at Newmarket 13 days later, she raced keenly that day and did well to finish 4th, she did not seem to have much left in the closing stages again however. On her latest start Glee raced over 10 furlongs at Bath, this was bonkers and as expected she was up there until the closing stages before weakening right out of contention and eventually finishing 6th of 9.

Tomorrow Glee runs over 6f and this drop in distance looks sure to suit, she is one from one over this trip and David Probert looks a good booking. I really don’t fear anything in the race and I am very hopeful that Glee can record her 2nd victory here.


3.30 Newbury – BIG OCCASION 12-1 E.W (BOG)

An interesting turnout for the Cesarewitch Trial. There a few unexposed sorts in the line up including my selection BIG OCCASION he has to carry top weight here but that reflects in his price and at 12-1 I do feel he offers some nice E.W value. It seems this horse has been purchased and sent to David Pipe for a dual purpose campaign and he certainly looks an interesting type. Big Occasion was previously trained by Aidan O’Brien and showed great promise winning two of his four career starts and finishing runner up on the other two occasions. He hasn’t been seen for 342 days which is a slight concern but I hope that David Pipe has him ready to run a big race tomorrow. He is versatile in regards to ground conditions having won on firm ground and also Soft Ground. When winning at the Curragh on his most recent racecourse appearance over 14f he showed a willing attitude and looked a promising stayer in the making. I don’t see the step up to 2m2f being a problem and hopefully he can make an impact tomorrow and hopefully over hurdles in future.


4.05 Newmarket- MIDNIGHT CALLER 12-1 E.W (BOG)

Not the easiest of races to solve but hopefully MIDNIGHT CALLER will give me a run for my money. John Gosden’s 3yo filly showed a fair bit of ability in three starts as a juvenile starting her career at Doncaster she was unlucky not to beat Blue Bunting who of course has went on to win 3 Group ones. This is the comment from the ATR Result caption (ridden to lead over 1f out, looked likely winner until ran green and caught close home). Those two pulled 11 lengths clear of the 3rd horse who is now rated in the 80s. Midnight Caller was sent off at 1-4 on her second start as a juvenile for a weak looking Leicester maiden, she went on to beat the horse she pulled 11 lengths clear of at Doncaster this time by only 1 ½ lengths. However she did things very easily and basically won on the bridle therefore she was value for a lot more than the winning distance would suggest. The selection then took a big step up in class for her final start as a juvenile when contesting the May Hill stakes at Doncaster, she was sent off a 3-1 2nd favourite but was very disappointing and shaped as if amiss eventually finishing last behind impressive winner White Moonstone.

Midnight Caller was set a stiff task on her reappearance when sent to Chester for the Chesire Oaks, she raced prominently that day and shaped well for a long way before weakening out to finish last of the 9 runners. She has been given a 136 day break since which would suggest to me connections either found something wrong with her or simply think she is capable of better and have freshened her up. She makes her handicap debut tomorrow and if she was to return to something near her best I would fancy her to make a mockery of her opening mark (87). At 12/1 I feel she is worth chancing for a small E.W bet.


Others I am backing tmz

Al Kazeem 2.00 Newbury

Labarinto 3.05 Newbury

Deacon Blues 3.40 Newbury

Gallagher 2.50 Ayr E.W

Regal Parade 3.20 Ayr E.W

Best of luck all

 

My Selections for tomorrow:

Starting at Newbury

14.00- Green Destiny - 5/2

Has won a G3 race over this course and looked good when landing the John Smiths @ york earlier this season. Should carry this on with a win here tomorrow

14.30- Caspar Netscher - 2/1

Finally won after some good efforts at Gimcrack and beat one or 2 competitors in thar race- should be hard to beat if in the same form77

15.05- Labarinto - 4/1

Won very well @ Goodwood showing his quick progression in every race and should complete a double.

15.50- Medicean Man - 11/2

This is a tough race was going to go for front runner Masamah and still maydo, but Medicean is in the form of his life this season and could step up to the mark in this Group 3; Masamah won a very good G2 race this year at goodwood but i feel maybe carrying abit too much weight.


Now for Ayr;

14.45- Miss Work Of Art - 4/1

One of my favourite fillys, has been a bit out of sort but then grabbed a very well run second at york so should plus with Hannagan on board should go one better.

15.20 - Regal Parade - 20/1 E/W

Has won previous G1 so obviously has the talent, this wont be a very quick run race due to the runners in it and the ground which wont suit some horses (Waffle.) Last time he was in a listed race he won so he has a good record.

15.20 - Eton Rifles- 14/1 E/W

A good front runner, who ran a good race last week when coming in= third when going off favourite, has won on heavy ground so the step back in trip and the way the race is run should suit him!

 

Like the look of too many tomorrow!

2.15 Ayr Tax Free 22/1 + Ginger Ted 33/1
2.30 Newbury Saigon 4/1
3.40 Newbury Katla 12/1 NB
5.15 Newmarket Murura FC 12/1 - Biggest ever bet

I'm up early for the rugby tomorrow and am tired so I will throw up old write ups which still basically apply

 

5.15 Newmarket

Murura FC 12/1

Should start this off by saying Murura will be my biggest bet ever on any horse. Murura went into my tracker in April 2010 after showing an impressive tenacious resilience to finish a very decent 2nd 2.5L behind impressive Bronze Cup winning Magical Macey after absolutely falling out of the stalls and losing a fair few lengths at the start. Murura was ridden for virtually all the race and made up some very good ground to finish so close, especially over 5f. Murura had 2 more runs after his race, disappointing twice – once as favourite. He left the James Given yard and made her debut for the JJ Hartnett yard after a 10 month break at Leopardstown. He was well supported that day and finished a decent 5th about 4L behind subsequent winner Northern Rocked.

Murura’s next outing came at the start of May where Murura finished 7th in a huge blanked finish, ultimately finishing less than a length to the winner Phoebe Van Gelder. Murura was quite unlucky to finish a short head Roicead over C+D in a 30 runner field off a mark of 72. Murura was drawn low and I feel did extremely well to finish so close to the winner considering she was on what I would feel to be the slower part of the Curragh racetrack. The form of that race is fantastic with Roicead, rated 74 that day, subsequently winning twice very impressively including off a mark as high as 98 and he is now a 108 rated animal. Further more, he put in a very good effort to come 3 in a Group 3 race recently and although Roicead is probably more progressive than Murura, I still think Murura has also come on a lot and it reads as excellent form to me. Furthmore, the 4th Marek that day was off 77 that day and finished 1/2L behind and he has since come out and put in an excellent 0.25L 2nd to Iron Major off 86 which solidifies that form.

After 3 disappointing runs, Murura finally showed the promise I knew he had as he landed a bit of plot by Hartnett to take a Class 5f event at Newmarket earlier this month. With blinkers on for the first time, Murura was an extremely impressive 2.75L winner under the guidance of Mikael Barzalona and has been raised to a mark of 83 as a result. His time that day was very impressive too, as he completed his race in 58.99s on good ground. I think that Murura’s 3 starts before his last outing can be discounted as I believe he was being saved for his last race. The form of his that race has worked out quite nicely too, with the 6th Fol Hollow who finished 6.75L behind Murura subsequently winning by 1.25L, the 2nd Whozthecat finishing a similar distance behind Duchess Dora, the 5th La Fortunata putting in 2 excellent efforts off 3lb higher marks and similar can be said for the 10th Five Star Junior.

After his win, Murura changed both ownership and trainer as he was sold for 36,000 Guineas to move across to the excellent Kevin Ryan. I think this demonstrates that this 4 year old has a lot more improvement left in him. LTO Murura was stepped into a 5f Class 2 event at Ascot where he eventually came a fast finishing 5th by 3.5L by Medicean Man after being hammered into 2nd favouritism from a double figure price. I have watched this race over and over again and to my eye the jockey that day Julie Burke gave him a very easy ride and I counted at most only 3 proper whips. It is very possible that Ryan was interested to see just how good an animal he had acquired and I really think he has got a very nice improving type.

The form of that race is pretty decent also. Medicean Man has finished a very unlucky 0.25L 2nd to the progressive Dungannon since as well as a 1.5L 3rd in a Listed Race behind Humidor. He fell out of the stall that day and may have got closer to the winner but he may frank the form tomorrow in a Group 3 earlier in the day. The 2nd Duchess Dora has subsequently put in to fantastic efforts by finishing 0.75L behind Dungannon in 3rd off 4lb higher as well as posting an excellent 0.25L defeat to Tangerine Trees in a Listed Race. The 4th Judge and Jury has won since and the 7th Sohraab has put in 2 very credible efforts since also. To me the form looks very strong and with my opinion being that Murura had a lot left that day it is probably stronger.

Tomorrow sees Murura tackle a 20 runner 6f Class 4 event at Newmarket. Firstly, I am of the opinion that Murura’s best trip is over 6f which is a big positive in my eyes. More glaring is the fact he is dropped back to a Class 4 event having won a Class 3 and running a very credible race in a Class 2 which is obviously a big positive. Although 20 runners will be obviously be hard to navigate through, for me he’s got a perfect draw in stall 10 as he will be able to come either side if the group splits which will be good for this hold up animal. David Probert is a very interesting jockey booking as he takes only his 2nd ride ever for the Kevin Ryan yard. He has 5 rides before taking this one so he should definitely know how the track is riding which is an obvious advantage. Although he’ll need to avoid trouble and beat a fair few progressive sorts including Blues Jazz who is going for a 6 timer I am very confident of his chances tomorrow.

 

2.15 Ayr

Ginger Ted 33/1

Old write up below. Most important things not in it are ground should be ideal and he has been dropped back to a mark of 88

I’ll start this off with a very important note: if the ground conditions aren’t good to soft or worse I will not be having a bet which indicates the crucial nature of give in the ground for this Richard Guest 4 year old. I am quite a fan of this fast finishing gelding who will don his traditional ridiculous looking furry cheekpieces and noseband as he looks to record his 7th career success. Ginger Ted has been in excellent form this year notching 2 wins so far and given his nature of coming from the back, a fair few hard luck stories. Despite being drawn in the coffin box draw of 20, I think Ginger Ted’s hold up style will mean that this draw wouldn’t be as big a factor for other horses as he will be able to sit in behind the pace and does not necessarily need a plum draw as a result, although it is still a negative

After having a reappearance run back in April after 6 months off the track, Ginger Ted got straight back to winning ways when winning at Ayr over 5f on GS in May when seeing of The Nifty Fox by a neck. However, this result is better than the bare result as Ginger Ted missed the break slightly and also found a lot of trouble in running (unfortunately a common occurrence) and had to be switched several times before powering home close to the finish. On his next start at Windsor, Ginger Ted again met trouble in running having to be checked over 3f out and then he was short of racing room before finding a gap and flying at the finish to finish 1L behind We Have a Dream in 4th off a mark of 85. The form of this race looks good, with WHAD coming 2nd subsequently off a 6lb higher mark, and the 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th and 11th winning off similar marks subsequently.

Ginger Ted’s next start came only a day after his effort behind WHAD and saw Ginger Ted return to winning ways off the same mark when defeating Red Cape by a head after a perfectly timed ride to burst through a gap and to win going away (eased close home). Ginger Ted remained poised in behind and when a gap opened up he flew straight through horses and was an impressive winner. It is worth noting that Ginger Ted seems to relish going between horses through tight spaces which is definitely a great attribute to have. The 2nd, 6th and 8th have won again subsequently so the form of this race looks fine also.

Ginger Ted’s next start after this came at Newcastle off a mark of 89 where he once again was unlucky in running. After travelling ominously well along with the winner Edinburgh Knight, Ginger Ted again had to be checked and lost momentum as a result and after having waiting for a gap to appear he powered home close home to finish 1.75L behind the winner. Although I don’t think he would have won, I think the trouble met cost him finishing closer. On his next start Ginger Ted put in an absolute stinker of a run finishing last of 14 at Hamilton. The ground was good to firm that day and I am willing to overlook this run as a result.

Ginger Ted’s penultimate start could be considered his best to date when finishing 1.5L behind subsequent Stewards Cup winner and Nunthorpe favourite Hoof it at tomorrows track over 6f on good ground. Ginger Ted came with a clear run down the outside of the group and was getting closer with every stride and it was a very impressive performance. With the first two home racing on the far side, it could be argued that Ginger Ted’s effort was on the unfavourable ground as he did best of all to come near side. Furthermore, a lot of Ginger Ted’s rivals from that day oppose tomorrow and were all behind him. They include Irish Heartbeat (9th), Racy (10th) and Silaah (17th). Ginger Ted’s latest performance was a disappointing effort at Doncaster on Saturday on drying good ground. Ginger Ted was absolutely friendless in the market so I think connections knew he wasn’t going to win as he finished 2.5L 7th behind Secret Witness. He did stay on towards the end but it was a disappointing effort.

Tomorrow, I don’t see any reason why Ginger Ted can defy his mark of 90, which is only 1lb higher than his effort behind Hoof It. He seems like a constantly improving 4 year old and although he has only raced at the course once, his recent effort here. He was drawn stall 15 that day, which leads be to believe that he can overcome his poor draw. JP Guillambert takes the ride tomorrow for the 7th time, and boasts an impressive 2 victories and a 2nd from these rides. He clearly knows the horse which I believe is vital given the tactical nature that is needed when delivering him late. Although he is perhaps slightly better over 6f, he has won over 5f before and gets an extra 89 yards to hopefully mount his winning challenge. His trainer Richard Guest is in good form and although JP hasn’t ridden a winner at York I am hopeful his experience and familiarity with Ginger Ted can lead him home in front at a nice price.

 

3.40 Newbury

Katla 12/1

I have been following Katla since his 2nd star as a 2 year old as he came out of the same race as Misty for Me where he finished an excellent 1.25L 2nd. In the interim period, Katla has developed into a very talented animal winning 3 times since and placing 6 times from his 11 subsequent starts. These have included a 6L victory over Barefoot Lady as a 2 YO in a Listed race at York, 4 places in Listed races, a place in a French Group 2 and another Listed win LTO. He is clearly a very progressive sort and although all of his form is undoubtedly impressive, I note a 2L 4th to subsequent Group 1 winner Margot Did on his last visit across the Irish Sea as notable as he got quite close although something seemed amiss at Ayr in June. Trainer John Grogan has only ever had 2 runners in England and they were both with this animal in the races above. Although its going to be very difficult to beat the excellent Deacon Blues and 2 of my previous selections Medicean Man and Dinkum Diamond, I think Kieren Fallon is an extremely eye catching booking and I know Grogan would not waste his time coming across from Ireland unless he thought he had a serious chance of winning, which I agree with. The drop back to 5f should suit and at 12/1 he looks a great e/w price

 

2.30 Newbury: REDACT 8/1 - Hughes chooses this over the very useful CROWN DEPENDENCY. The form of his 1L 5th of 24 in the Newbury Super Sprint puts him bang in contention and looks massive at 8/1 if forgiving latest effort.

 

Morning All

Just the one fancy at the moment for the Ayr Gold Cup :

3.20 Ayr - Castles In the Air 33/1 Ladbrokes - 1 of 5 runners for Richard Fahey. Likes these big field handicaps, though his last win was in July 10 when he won the international stakes at Ascot. Thought it was a decent run at Doncaster just over a week ago and I reckon is a sound each way bet today.

If anyone dabbles with football betting, then I have a quite confident bet on the goal-rush coupon that most bookies now offer (both teams to score in 90 mins)

Leicester vs Brighton
Spurs vs Liverpool
Man Utd vs Chelsea
Rangers vs Celtic

Pays about 6/1 with Paddy Power

Lets all hope for a lucky day punting

Cheers Trevez

 

Two newcomers I'll be watching today at Newbury are Mighty Ambition and Moidore. The first runs in the 1.25 and this colt by Street Cry is the third foal of the Sadler's Wells mare New Morning (Ballymacoll bred but not raced:as she was sold as a foal/yearling). This mare is a full sister to Islington and won 3 races up to 10f, including the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. This is not a family that usually shines first time out or even as 2yos, but Al Zarooni may be wanting more from this colt today. In the 4.15 Moidore makes his debut. The Charlton stable seem in good form, especially the 2yos, and this colt has been entered for the Racing Post Trophy. He is by Galileo out of a Darshaan mare called Flash of Gold, who was pretty uninspiring as a racehorse but half-sister to the Ribblesdale winner Phantom Gold. At stud she has performed a little better, although yet to set the world alight, and her first three foals to run have won. The Sadler's Wells:Never Bend nick continues to work for a number of horses and the Royal colt may be a bit better than his siblings. If he's going to run in the RP Trophy he'll need to run well today. (The Charlton website hasn't posted any comments yet).
I'm not overconfident because these are tough maidens where top trainers like to bring out their promising youngsters. But I'm hoping for good runs by these and will be having a small investment.

 

Good morning all still gutted at the very poor effort from Patrick Donaghy on Scottish Lake yesterday ....anyway battling on today...LABARANTINO my nap today ran super last time and any progress sufficient to land this....only other minor interest OUR JONATHAN in the Gold Cup. Best of luck to all today.

 

Gotta agree with TopClass when it comes to Redact. Some time ago I posted both Redact and his stablemate Eureka as two to follow. They then stepped out in the Super Sprint where the finished fourth and fifth. Eureka has confirmed that form with a win just recently. Redact beat him a length and a half in the big one, so has to have a very strong chance today. His last run was better that it looks on paper. He fell out of the stalls and then raced as though he'd forgotten how to use his legs. He was extremely green. He is a very good animal. At 9-1 on BlueSquare, he is outstanding value. Each way forever.

Newbury 14:30 Redact. 9-1. EW.

 

AYR SILVER CUP, 2.15

PRIME EXHIBIT 16/1- Heads into the contest in great form and Lee Topliss is a really handy 3lb claimer in these big handicaps. 3lb off means it essentially runs off 87, and is well treated given the top class form to his name. The drop back in trip might be a problem but the soft ground means they will have to stay well to win, and this fella can certainly do that.


AYR GOLD CUP 3.20

MAYSON 18/1-

Ran a belter on return last month, Fahey and Hanagan think he has come on a tonne for it and that puts him bang in the mix. Some very smart from to his name, beating Chilworth Lad and Bathwick Bear, as well as getting within 2L of ZEBEDEE last season. Seems to retain his ability and can go very well.

 

GOOD MORNINGS EVERYONE.
was just going to post MAYSON--but relieved topclassen has beaten me to it--but only got 16s

"and he yells to the cook with his arms open wide--hey!bring me more fish ,throw it doon by my side,
and he wants so to belch,but hes too bold to try,so he stands up and laughs.,
as he zips up his fly"

MERCHANT OF DUBAI 3-05 NEWBURY

 

GDC---read your post about the lad breaking his leg at the start of the week.its a terrible thing--one of my sons got his ankle and leg broke in two places by a bad tackle a few years ago aged 17.its a harrowing thing for a young lad,but one bit of advice i can give is--keep the lads spirits up best you can as they tend to get depressed whilst healing,honestly--it is a big help.all the best to the young fellow and a speedy recovery.

has anyone seen that old seadog hiesenburg about? or is he cooking something up today?

 

Morning all! Hope everyone is well!