1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

Daily Racing Thread Saturday 17th. August 2024

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Aug 16, 2024.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2014
    Messages:
    5,049
    Likes Received:
    4,263
    Saturday's Meetings

    Ripon
    Flat 7 Races 1:35-4:59p.m.
    Curragh
    Flat 8 Races 1:45-5:45p.m.
    Newbury
    Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:15p.m.
    Doncaster
    Flat 7 Races 1:57-5:25p.m.
    Newmarket
    Flat 6 Races 2:05-4:55p.m.
    Perth(E)
    N/H 8 Races 3:55-7:55p.m.
    Market Rasen(E)
    N/H 8 Races 4:10-7:50p.m.
    Tramore(E)
    Flat 7 Races 5:00-8:00p.m.
    Bath(E)
    Flat 6 Races 5:40-8:12p.m.

    Racecards
    At The Races
    Sporting Life
    Racing Post


    Good Luck <ok>
     
    #1
  2. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2011
    Messages:
    9,698
    Likes Received:
    5,383
    Enjoy having a dabble on the big handicaps, so will try the Class--2 Great St Wilfred Handicap (15:20) at Ripon on Saturday, run over 6f on the expected good ground. Without further ado, choice is the Camacho gelding, Dare To Hope. Trainer has four entered in this 19-runner affair, but maybe selection has the best chance, as it will be suited by current track conditions. Has good stands-side draw, so given reasonable luck in running, should do well. Oisin Orr (stable jockey) rides for the Richard Fahey yard.

    15/2 (Betfred/BetVictor) top price at time of writing. E/W best option.
     
    #2
  3. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2018
    Messages:
    3,384
    Likes Received:
    3,928
    Ripon
    14,45 Another Bear 9/1 e/w bet365 five places, 7/1 sky six places

    Doncaster
    15,42 Falcon Nine 8/1 e/w WH three places, 7/1 sky four places

    Curragh
    17,10 Goldmoyne 16/1 e/w WH and PP six places, 14/1 sky Seven places

    Market Rasen
    19,20 Pawpaw 5/1 WH, 9/2 others
     
    #3
    Sugarrush, GOLDBONES and SwanHills like this.
  4. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

    Joined:
    May 31, 2011
    Messages:
    8,083
    Likes Received:
    5,062
    Not a great Saturday from a punting point of view. I think I will give the cavalry charges at Ripon a miss and there are a lot of small fields at HQ (again) and the two features at Newbury.

    The opener at Newmarket is the annual Grey Horse race and several of the nine look easy to eliminate from contention. Grenham Bay won on the kitty litter back in March and failed to improve on that twice in April. After a break he was midfield in a Windsor 0-80 handicap under today’s jockey. Good Karma drops in trip today having mostly raced over seven and eight furlongs, has not troubled the judge since last May and will probably be last to bring up a hat-trick of such finishes. Mart has five career wins but the only one on turf was on the other course off a 5lb lower mark and has been nearer last than first on his three recent efforts. Archduke Ferdinand was second on the kitty litter to start this campaign over seven but has not been close to winning since. Fine Interview lost his maiden tag at the third attempt in a five runner Ffos Las event so an opening mark of 76 might be lenient but I won’t touch first time handicappers. Eminency ran on Thursday evening, although ‘ran’ might be euphemistic and was three lengths third the week before. With Thursday’s visor retained I see no grounds for expecting a better result off only a 1lb lower mark. Mister Bluebird ran like a drain last time at Yarmouth but would come in to the reckoning today if he reproduced his previous two thirds, but the one in June was behind Eminency and the better one in July was over seven and ahead of Good Karma. The favourite today will be First Folio, who was third in the Scottish Stewards’ Cup under a claimer having been fourth at Thirsk under today’s pilot. The fact is that Julie Camacho’s charge has not won for almost two years and looks likely to find one or two too good again. The one that I do think will be too good for all of them is STRIKE. John Portman’s six year old has won three of his four starts this term, although the last two of them were under an apprentice claimer, so he is effectively up 6lb today under David Egan and needs a career best effort.

    The betting suggests that the Newbury 3:00 is quite competitive but the case for many in the field appears to revolve around them having dropped to a winnable mark. The last two winners of the race, Spangled Mac and Documenting (2022), do not seem likely to repeat based on recent efforts. Old boy Accidental Agent makes his 2024 bow and Silver Samurai would have to match a career best after never featuring in a York race at this trip last time. Be Frank has moved to the Ian Williams yard but both his career wins were over six and on his penultimate start over course and distance he threw the race away at the start, a race in which Zouzanna was third. Harry Charlton’s filly was third last time under today’s pilot and ought to run well off bottom weight. Spanish Blaze might perhaps be of more interest; placed on his last three starts most recently third in a valuable Goodwood handicap over a mile. Ignoring Lethal Levi’s Stewards’ Cup no show he would have serious claims on his prior second in the Bunbury Cup but is on a career high mark. Streets Of Gold has not won since 2022 and lost out in a three-way photo at Chepstow when last seen. Off top weight here it would be a career best to win. Zabriskie Point runs off the lowest handicap mark of his career having dropped 4lb for failing to trouble the judge in either of his races this year but I cannot see any grounds for him challenging here as he was a never dangerous fifth at Goodwood last time. Starlore went into some notebooks after being unlucky in running at Goodwood in May and has not been seen since his fifth last effort in the Britannia. There is no form reason to think he will come good today and what is to say that he won’t be unlucky in running again? So that leaves me with the favourite, WALEEFY, from the Haggas yard that is now churning out winners left, right and centre (7 wins from last 20 runners). He won with a bit to spare at Doncaster last time and has been raised 8lb for the official two length margin. The only bad news is my jinx jockey is back aboard...
     
    #4
  5. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2018
    Messages:
    3,384
    Likes Received:
    3,928
    Great.
     
    #5
    SwanHills likes this.
  6. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2011
    Messages:
    9,698
    Likes Received:
    5,383
    Won by 3/4 L. at 9/2 SP. Came with a real rattle to beat stable companion Ramazan. Superb ride by Oisin Orr for Richard Fahey yard and connections of winner. There'll be some celebrations this evening, I bet!
     
    #6
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2024
    GOLDBONES and Pilgrim like this.

  7. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2011
    Messages:
    9,698
    Likes Received:
    5,383
    Shout! <applause>
     
    #7
    Pilgrim likes this.
  8. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2018
    Messages:
    3,384
    Likes Received:
    3,928
    Goldmoyne won.
    Another Baar 2nd.
     
    #8
    GOLDBONES and Chaninbar like this.
  9. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

    Joined:
    May 31, 2011
    Messages:
    8,083
    Likes Received:
    5,062
    Nobody to blame but myself!

    Another example of jockey stupidity: sit four lengths off the pace in third/fourth while the known front runner ambles along at his own pace. Then when he kicks on a furlong out you are way too far back to stand any chance of catching him. Jinx Crowley strikes again.

    Ironically, Haggas had two winners from five runners at Newbury, improving on his astonishing success rate in the last two days: four winners from nine runners.
     
    #9
  10. Sugarrush

    Sugarrush Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2020
    Messages:
    246
    Likes Received:
    233
    Well done pilgrim and swanny with your picks today
     
    #10

Share This Page