Saturday's Meetings Wexford N/H 8 Races 1:00-5:00p.m. Newmarket Flat 7 Races 1:40-5:20p.m. Ascot Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:17p.m. Navan Flat 7 Races 1:52-5:20p.m. York Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:25p.m. Chester(E) Flat 6 Races 4:20-7:10p.m. Salisbury(E) Flat 6 Races 5:40-8:20p.m. Hamilton(E) Flat 7 Races 5:50-9:00p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Interesting to see former Fred Winter winner Brazil going chasing this afternoon. Worth an e/w dabble I think.
In the opening race at Ascot (13;45), a 5f sprint on the expected good-to-soft ground, am hoping Hollie Doyle will get things off to a good start on the somewhat quirky Shamardal gelding, Albasheer. Sould handle current track conditions, but hope going does not get any softer. Hollie on board for the Archie Watson stable. 10/1 (Wm.Hill/Unibet) top price early-doors, on the ATR site. E/W best option.
Tom Marquand is at Ascot rather than Newmarket or York, suggesting which horses are the best prospects of a William Haggas winner this afternoon: see the 3:32 and 4:07. Any rain at HQ and York might work in favour of some fancied horses more than others. The July Cup pits two of my tracker horses against each other; but as one of them is the favourite and the other let me down at Royal Ascot, I will just be watching Inisherin win (3lb clear on Timeform ratings) at the expense of old rival Vandeek. The markets in the handicaps at Newmarket is very skewed by the form of Royal Ascot handicaps but I think this is often false because of the way that almost all handicaps at the Royal meeting are run at suicidal pace resulting in the leaders capitulating at the business end of the race and the fields frequently splitting creating a false draw bias. For example, the 2:50 sees the betting dominated by Qirat and Volterra, two horses that ran in the Britannia as joint favourites on opposite sides of the track. I would prefer the former, previously a seven furlong winner, but the latter is more likely to be near the pace; and neither of them is a price that would interest me. Hat-trick seeking Liveandletlive is more my idea of a bet as he defied an 11lb rise last time and has been put up 6lb here. It looks like half of the field in the Bunbury Cup previously met in the Buckingham Palace, where the third home Carrytheone is a short priced to gain compensation today. They could split into two groups here as well making it a bit of a lottery, so I will pass. Of those that skipped Ascot, Darkness would be of interest under a penalty. It is almost certain that there will be rain at York and the going is already Good to Soft, so the John Smith’s Cup looks easy to bypass with several of the fancied runners drawn wide and a lot of Royal Ascot quick ground form that cannot be relied upon today. Sadly the one I was looking at in the York opener has inherited favouritism with the defection of the Haggas entry but is too short to bother looking at the form in a fifteen runner race. So that is the British racing a no bet, leaving just the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp this evening. The British bookies’ betting obviously favours the ‘talking horse’ Delius, winner of his three starts, last time the Prix du Lys by two lengths from Saganti and Internaute on the Prix de Diane card at Chantilly. There is no reason to believe that the placed horses will reverse that running here unless the race is run markedly differently. Andre Fabre’s Sosie comes here on the back of a third place in the Prix Du Jockey Club, where Mondo Man was fifth. There is an extra two furlongs today and the form has hardly been advertised by Diego Velazquez (out with the washing in the King Edward VII) or runner-up First Look (fourth in the Hampton Court), but Sunway was runner up in the Irish Derby and Ghostwriter a close third in the Eclipse. The other Jean-Claude Rouget runner Sibayan would need to step up quite a way on winning a five runner Listed race at Bordeaux but his trainer has a knack of placing his horses. The only foreign raider is Aidan O’Brien’s Illinois. He was well beaten in the Lingfield Derby Trial but subsequently collected the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. The drop back to twelve furlongs here should not be an issue and he has an impeccable pedigree but is he really good enough here at the top level? I would want some idea of what Christophe Soumillon is going to do on him before considering a bet, so that leads me to the only filly in the field, Prix de Diane third TAMFANA. David Menuisier’s three year old was fourth in the 1000 Guineas then third in the Diane stepping up two furlongs and now steps up two more. I expect her to be held up and brought late (again) – hopefully not too late! Interesting that Oisin Murphy is at Longchamp tonight rather than at Newmarket or York and only has the one ride.
Newmarket 14,12 Miss Bodacious 3/1 16,00 Dark Thirty 20/1 e/w WH five places, 18/1 PP six places, 16/1 sky seven places
Parislongchamp stages the Group-1 Grand Prix de Paris Stakes this evening (19:17), over a distance just short of 1m4f on soft ground. A top-class event, for sure, and my choice to run a sound race is the Sea The Stars colt, Sosie, (Damsire: Shamardal). Trained by the master trainer, André Fabre, the colt will be ridden by top jockey, Maxime Guyon, who has won this race three times before (in 2009,2011, 2013 - hope I've got this right!). 10/3 best price in most places early-doors, on the ATR site.
2nd by 1/2-length at 10/1 SP. Reading the account of the race, might well have been a bit unlucky (i.e. dwelt at start, not clear run during race, but finished really well). Albasheer is a pretty good sprinter when he feels like it! Happy with the e/w though, so not so bad.
Almost public schooling. Expect him to have another couple of poor runs in beginners chases and then get a mark in the low 120s. Will probably pop up at 20/1 at some point during the season.
Won at 10/3 SP. Fine ride by Maxime Guyon for the André Fabre stable and connections. Guyon always had the colt in a handy position throughout the race (unlike Delius, who had far too much to do coming from last place) and duly won the race with some authority. Sosie might well take his chance in the Arc now?
Well done to Swanny on getting the Grand Prix de Paris winner. As with her last two races, Tamfana got going too late to feature in the finish. More on the race itself on the Arc thread. It turned out to be a good Saturday to sit it out as Tamfana was my only bet of the day so my sole loss. Of the horses that I fancied one was a non-runner, four lost and one won. If I drew up an annoying scale from 1 to 10 then the July Cup would have scored 12. Two of my tracker horses were in the race and one of them was the favourite. He was too short to be a betting proposition so I left the race alone. Unfortunately he ran a stinker, leaving my other horse Mill Stream to win at 11/1, having lost my money at Royal Ascot when only third to an Ascot/race specialist (behind him at HQ). It was a bad July meeting for Bet365. Their “Super Boost” on each day won, so for backers of short-priced favourites they were certainly the place to be. On Thursday my Derby ante post Ancient Kingdom won, on Friday Porta Fortuna won and on Saturday Ancient Truth won. The cynic in me wonders if this was a ploy to fund mug account holders who will quickly give them the money back on short priced favourites that lose while boosting turnover.
