Ok, so which teams will get into this years top 4? We can already rule out the two top places, so the places up for grabs will be 3rd and 4th. The teams that can feasibility get these spots are Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs, Everton and Liverpool. Lets do a breakdown of all the fixture lists and estimate how many points each team can get. I will naturally start with Arsenal It's still a little way to go but it's good to get a grip on where everyone is and what they need do do to achieve it. This is just MY estimation and it could of course go any other way. It will go down to who goes on a good run and which squad is strong enough to maintain it. Chelsea have the hardest fixture list, but they have points in hand and a big high quality squad to pull them through. The big question mark for me is whether Spurs can maintain it and if Arsenal can go on a run. I expect Everton and Liverpool to fall away due to their limited squads, although i've given them generous points due on their form and how tough they are to beat. Arsenal - 38pts in 24 still in champions league and FA Cup Arsenal V Stoke - 3 Sunderland V Arsenal -3 Arsenal V Aston Villa - 3 Tottenham V Arsenal - 1 Arsenal V Everton - 1 Swansea V Arsenal - 1 Arsenal V Reading - 3 West Brom V Arsenal - 1 Arsenal V Norwich - 3 Fulham V Arsenal - 3 Arsenal V Man Utd - 0 QPR V Arsenal - 1 Arsenal V Wigan - 3 Newcastle V Arsenal - 3 Total point from fixtures: 29 Total points at the end: 67 League position: 6th Chelsea - 46pts in 24 Still in Europa and FA cup Newcastle V Chelsea - 3 Chelsea V Wigan - 3 Man City V Chelsea - 1 Chelsea V West Brom - 3 Fulham V Chelsea - 1 Chelsea V West Ham - 3 Southampton V Chelsea - 1 Chelsea V Sunderland - 3 Chelsea V Tottenham - 1 Liverpool V Chelsea - 1 Chelsea V Swansea - 3 Man Utd V Chelsea - 1 Aston Villa V Chelsea - 1 Chelsea V Everton - 1 Total point from fixtures: 26 Total points at the end: 72 League position: 3rd Spurs - 42pts in 24 Still in Europa cup West Brom V Tottenham - 3 Tottenham V Newcastle - 3 West Ham V Tottenham - 3 Tottenham V Arsenal - 1 Liverpool V Tottenham - 1 Tottenham V Fulham - 3 Swansea V Tottenham - 1 Tottenham V Everton - 1 Chelsea V Tottenham - 1 Tottenham V Man City - 1 Wigan V Tottenham - 3 Tottenham V Southampton - 3 Stoke V Tottenham - 3 Tottenham V Sunderland - 3 Total point from fixtures: 30 Total points at the end: 72 League position: 4th Everton - 41pts in 24 Still in FA Cup Everton V Aston Villa - 3 Man Utd V Everton - 1 Norwich V Everton - 3 Everton V Reading - 3 Arsenal V Everton - 1 Everton V Man City - 1 Everton V Stoke - 3 Tottenham V Everton - 1 Everton V QPR - 3 Sunderland V Everton - 3 Everton V Fulham - 3 Liverpool V Everton - 0 Everton V West Ham - 3 Chelsea V Everton - 1 Total point from fixtures: 29 Total points at the end: 70 League position: 5th Liverpool - 35pts in 24 Still in Europa Cup Man City V Liverpool - 1 Liverpool V West Brom - 3 Liverpool V Swansea (Postponed - now being played Sun, Feb 24) - 3 Wigan V Liverpool - 1 Liverpool V Tottenham - 1 Southampton V Liverpool - 3 Aston Villa V Liverpool - 1 Liverpool V West Ham - 3 Reading V Liverpool - 3 Liverpool V Chelsea - 1 Newcastle V Liverpool - 1 Liverpool V Everton - 3 Fulham V Liverpool - 3 Liverpool V QPR - 3 Total point from fixtures: 30 Total points at the end: 65 League position: 7th
2011/12 4th had 69 Points 2010/11 69 2009/10 70 2008/09 72 2007/08 76 The first thing to notice is that 4th has had less points each year over the past 5 years (save last year which was equal). Arsenal have 38 points from 24 fixtures. That's 1.58 points per game. To reach 70 points, they require 32 points from the remaining 14 games, which equates to 2.29 points per game. Their points-per-game average has to increase by 45% to reach the target. A serious upturn in fortunes is required to make Top4 this season.
There are still a fair amount of variables to look out for. Other teams being in cup competitions (including us) and injuries/tiredness. For our standards, we've had an impressive injury record this season, barring Rosicky and obviously Diaby. Having Wilshere and Walcott relatively injury free has lessened the impact of RVPs departure. Not forgetting Cazorla, what a signing.
A few things: You're not expecting Man Citeh to beat any of our rivals? You're expecting Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool to go unbeaten for the rest of the season? You're expecting Everton and Chelsea to draw with Man U away, yet us to lose at home? You're expecting Everton and Liverpool to beat QPR, but us to draw with them? You're expecting Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool to beat West brom, but us to draw with them? My expected finish is: Man U Man C Chelsea Arsenal Liverpool Spuds Everton
There is no way Chelsea, spurs and Liverpool will go thru the rest of the league season without losing a game, like you have in your predictions, all teams have been a shambles at times so I will be amazed if that happens. I'm guessing your airing on the side of caution and excepting our rivals to do slightly better than they probably will.
As i said, these are my predictions and can be wrong. Please feel free to go through the fixture lists and allocate points for each teams, and see who ends where based on their indiviual performances. It will make for interesting viewing.
Someone's head at Arsenal should roll after this month. 1 win in January, lowest points and position ever under Wenger but no improvements
What's worrying is, I think you've been quite optimistic in your predictions for us. Only 1 loss from now until the end of the season? Not with our inconsistent form.
I think i've been quite cautious with all my predictions, as pointed out by enigma. I really didn't think we would end up with 67 and ending up 6th when i started. Only loss i've written is the Man U one at home. This all depends on how the battle between the Manchester clubs go. If it goes down the wire and we become a must win for Man U, i can see them winning, largely due to RVP (sad to say but it could end up like that). Why have i said that we will lose compared to Everton and Chelsea? I just feel that those teams are harder to beat than us.
Our rivals for top 4 to all go unbeaten until the end of the season (except everton who will lose to liverpool). Everton to get draws against City/Arsenal/Chelsea/Utd/spurs - really? You don't think they will slip up despite being the only team to play all 5 of the top teams? Tottenham to draw against Everton/Chelsea/City in a row without slipping up once? Your predictions seem very cautious for Arsenal yet very optimistic for our rivals. The fact is it's only 4 points we have to make up against Tottenham in 14 games, one of which is against them. Really not that dramatic of a turn-around needed tbh. And i can't see Everton getting results against City/Arsenal/Chelsea/Utd/Spurs - i'd expect at least two losses in there... at least! And so think they will drop below us soon enough. I think it will end up something like: Utd City Chelsea Arsenal Tottenham Everton/Liverpool
The predictions are conservative. Most 'even' matches (Spuds V Arsenal, Chelsea V Liverpool, City V Spuds, Arsenal V Everton, etc) you've safely predicted draws which rarely happens. On paper, they look ok, but in actuality and looking at form over the whole season, we could go out and smash Chelsea 3-1 but then go and lose to Newcastle 3-0. Same is true for any of those teams. Form is inconsistant and the league has thrown up surprises all season. Really got no idea who'll make 4th but I think Chelsea, regardless of their current form, will finish third. Too much quality in the team to drop completely. Unfortunately, I think Spurs might scrape 4th...Everton never play well an entire season and Spurs are playing alright lately. Best of luck though, I quite like Arsenal. You run your club properly unlike certain London or Manc teams
Arsenal V Stoke - 3 Sunderland V Arsenal -3 Arsenal V Aston Villa - 3 Tottenham V Arsenal - 3 Arsenal V Everton - 3 Swansea V Arsenal - 3 Arsenal V Reading - 3 West Brom V Arsenal - 3 Arsenal V Norwich - 3 Fulham V Arsenal - 3 Arsenal V Man Utd - 3 QPR V Arsenal - 3 Arsenal V Wigan - 3 Newcastle V Arsenal - 3 Total point from fixtures: 42 I'm a realist
Why would an Arsenal fan predict Spurs to go unbeaten for the rest of the Season? Seems like nonsense to me.
We're going to need a lot of luck. It's imperative that we beat Tottenham and Everton, and that we go and a good run, we can only allow ourselves to drop about another 7 points for the rest of the season. Any thing more than 10 would mean failure.
I think you've highlighted how unpredictable the league is, especially after Chelsea losing to Newcastle and Everton narrowly drawing. Apart from Man U, predicting what happens with the rest of the teams is difficult. Also in hindsight, predicting most of the teams to go unbeaten was also unrealistic, especially after the season has gone. But I've thrown up a conservative, safe list of results, as the points difference is negligible between all of them. At the end of the day, i wanted to highlight how difficult it will be for any team to get top 4. More i wanted people to throw up there own predictions as a way of comparison.
The thing you have to worry about us is that we pick up points almost every week. We hardly lose a game.
