I've seen a fair few people saying that they were worried about a couple of the teams near the bottom picking up points and keeping us in the race. So, I thought I'd take a look at the remaining fixtures of those still in with a chance of relegation and where I think they'll finish. Fellow rivals games in bold as they'll impact us the most (though any game involving these teams will be huge, frankly). Hopefully it'll make some of you feel a bit better. Swansea (16th) - Current Form - LWDWLL Leeds A Derby H Plymouth H Sunderland A Hull City H QPR A Millwall A Oxford H Portsmouth (17th) - Current Form - WWLWLL Blackburn H Millwall A Coventry A Derby H Norwich A Watford H Sheffield W A Hull City H Oxford Utd (18th) - Current Form - LLLDLW Middlesbrough A Sheffield Utd H QPR H Sheffield W A Leeds H Cardiff A Sunderland H Swansea A Hull City (19th) - Current Form - WLWDWD Luton H Sheffield W A Watford A Coventry H Swansea A Preston H Derby H Portsmouth A Stoke City (20th) - Current Form - LLDLWL QPR H Preston A Luton H Cardiff A Sheffield W H Leeds A Sheffield Utd H Derby A Cardiff City (21st) - Current Form - DWLLLW Sheffield W H QPR A Preston A Stoke H Sheffield Utd A Oxford H WBA H Norwich A Derby County (22nd) - Current Form - LLLWWW Preston H Swansea A Burnley H Portsmouth A Luton H WBA A Hull City A Stoke H Luton Town (23rd) - Current Form - DLWLWD Hull City A Leeds H Stoke A Blackburn H Derby A Bristol C H Coventry H WBA A Plymouth Argyle (24th) - Current Form - DDLLWL Watford A Norwich H Swansea A Sheffield Utd H Middlesbrough A Coventry A Preston A Leeds A As you can see, the run in favours Derby County, Swansea and Hull City the most as they have five, four and four of their rivals respectively still to play. It looks pretty bleak for Plymouth and Cardiff, while I'd also be concerned if I was a Portsmouth fan and I think it will be between them and Luton on the final day to decide who drops. I can't see Cardiff getting enough from their fixtures and though I'm sure Plymouth will give it a good go, they're going to run out of road. Obviously it's the Championship and anybody can beat anybody else, but if I was going off the remaining fixtures and form, I'd expect the table to look like this come the end of the season: 16. Swansea City 17. Hull City 18. Derby County 19. Oxford Utd 20. Stoke City 21. Portsmouth ---------------------------------------- 22. Luton (R) 23. Cardiff City (R) 24. Plymouth (R)
I’d be worried if I was a Stoke supporter. Sheffield United, Leeds and Derby away for the last 3 fixtures.
True. What is encouraging is that we only have one of the current top six in our final fixtures, where as everybody below us has at least two.
Can I just say, it would make my season if Stoke were relegated. All the time they were in the Premiership finishing 8th and they thought they were better than 8th, surviving on Delap long throws.. plus I hate the ground ...
Great work Toastie Just to add the average positions of the teams left to play. Swansea 14.25 Portsmouth 12.63 Oxford 10.0 Hull City 14.86 Stoke 13.86 Cardiff 13.86 Luton 14.63 Plymouth 8.75
The only thing I take from that is that Plymouth are probably gone. Anything can happen. Stoke for example have a decent next 4 games. Cardiff have a run of winnable games before Sheff U away, and then have Oxford at home. Twists and turns.
No such thing as an easy game - anyone can beat anyone else on any given day. Best to just concentrate on our own performances / results - get that right and what the others do won't matter
Can see it being Plymouth, Luton and Stoke tbh from those run ins, but you can't count any of them out including us, going to be very tight. I think the way this season has gone I'd be happier playing the top six in the run in, we seem to have a habit of picking up points against those teams.
Think you need to predict scores as goal difference is going to be the key factor.We are currently in a good position on GD
It’s not mathematical safety, but only three teams have managed 2 points a game this season, Leeds, Burnley and Sheffield United. With 8 left to play, at 2 points a game, it would be safe to assume no team at the bottom will get more than 16 points. Most won’t even come close. Derby have 38, so that puts the magic safety number at 54. Every time they drop points, which they will, that number will come down. It won’t end up being more than 50.
Just remember a little while ago at the beginning and end of seasons you get ridiculous unexpected results - particularly as some are on holiday . I was the voice of pessimistic optimism . first .
Yeah this is my thinking. Given Derby have to play pretty much everyone in contention to get relegated they’re either going to screw everyone over or are going to sink themselves. given their current form I’ll say it’s the former. With Plymouth gone in my opinion I can’t see 3 of the 4 (Derby, Luton, Cardiff and Stoke) all getting 12 points. It’s between Cardiff and Stoke for that final spot in my opinion
Minor update for you..for Plymouth fixtures Watford A Norwich H Swansea A Sheffield Utd H Middlesbrough A Coventry A...should be Home Preston A Leeds A....... should be Home
Toughest run-ins based on opponents, to be played, current position ie at 17th March. Lower the number = harder it could be. 1 OXFORD 80 2 PLYMOUTH 87 3 LUTON 89 4 CARDIFF 100 5 PORTSMOUTH 101 6 STOKE 110 7 SWANSEA 114 8 DERBY 118 9 HULL CITY 119
Championship run-in compared as Hull City face major battle to survive - Hull Live Sorry, has he just copied what I wrote in this thread for his article?! I'm a writer, I'm not in the business of doing other people's work for them!
I posted something recently about the ppg record of Walter and Selles, and it appeared in an HDM article couple of days later. Hi Baz, whoever you are!
Like I don’t mind my work being used if I’m credited for it. Or at least DM’d beforehand, I’m very unlikely to say no. But it’s even in the same format and it doesn’t seem right. If you are reading this Baz, I’ve no problem with you using my stuff as long as I get credit or you ask permission. Or stick a pint behind the bar at the King Billy in Cott.
