Relegation battle, realistic winnable games per club. (w) = targeted as a winnable game, not predicting an actual win. So the final points are the maximum points that teams can realistically expect to finish on. Eg <40 means likely to finish on less than 40 points Fulham 21 pts Fulham v Newcastle Man City v Fulham Fulham v Everton Aston Villa v Fulham (w) Fulham v Norwich City (w) Tottenham v Fulham Fulham v Hull City (w) Stoke City v Fulham (w) Fulham v Crystal Palace (w) (W) 15 pts = 36< Sunderland 24 pts Man City v Sunderland Sunderland v West Brom (w) Sunderland v Crystal Palace (w) Norwich City v Sunderland (w) Liverpool v Sunderland Sunderland v West Ham (w) Tottenham v Sunderland Sunderland v Everton Chelsea v Sunderland Sunderland v Cardiff City (w) Man U v Sunderland Sunderland v Swansea (w) (W) 18 pts = 42< Cardiff 25 pts Everton v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Liverpool West Brom v. Cardiff City (w) Cardiff City v. Crystal Palace(w) Southampton v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Stoke City (w) Sunderland v. Cardiff City (w) Newcastle United v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Chelsea (W) 12 pts = 37< West Brom 25 pts Sunderland v West Brom (w) Swansea City v West Brom (w) Hull City v West Brom (w) West Brom v Cardiff City (w) Norwich City v West Brom (w) West Brom v Tottenham Man City v West Brom West Brom v West Ham (w) Arsenal v West Brom West Brom v Stoke City (w) (W) 21 pts = 46< Crystal Palace 27 pts Everton v Crystal Palace Sunderland v Crystal Palace (w) Newcastle v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace v Chelsea Cardiff City v Crystal Palace (w) Crystal Palace v Aston Villa (w) West Ham v Crystal Palace (w) Crystal Palace v Man City Crystal Palace v Liverpool Fulham v Crystal Palace (w) (W) 15 pts = 42< Norwich City 29 pts Southampton v Norwich City Norwich City v Sunderland (w) Swansea City v Norwich City (w) Norwich City v West Brom (w) Fulham v Norwich City (w) Norwich City v Liverpool Man United v Norwich City Chelsea v Norwich City Norwich City v Arsenal (W) 12 pts = 41< Swansea City 29 pts Swansea City v West Brom (w) Everton v Swansea City Arsenal v Swansea City Swansea City v Norwich City (w) Hull City v Swansea City (w) Swansea City v Chelsea Newcastle v Swansea City Swansea City v Aston Villa (w) Swansea City v Southampton Sunderland v Swansea City (w) (W) 15 pts = 44< Hull 30 pts Hull v Man City Hull v West Brom (w) West Ham v Hull (w) Stoke v Hull (w) Hull v Swansea (w) Man U v Hull Hull v Arsenal Fulham V Hull (w) Aston Villa v Hull (w) Hull v Everton (W) 18 pts = 48< Stoke 31 pts Stoke v West Ham (w) Aston Villa v Stoke (w) Stoke v Hull (w) Chelsea V Stoke Stoke v Newcastle Cardiff v Stoke (w) Stoke v Tottenham Stoke v Fulham (w) West Brom v Stoke (w) (W) 18 pts = 49< Aston Villa 31 pts Aston Villa v Chelsea Aston Villa v Stoke Man U v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Fulham (w) Crystal Palace v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Southampton Swansea v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Hull (w) Tottenham v Aston Villa (W) 15 pts = 46< West Ham 31 pts Stoke v West Ham (w) West Ham v Man U West Ham v Hull (w) Sunderland v West Ham (w) West Ham v Liverpool Arsenal v West Ham West Ham v Crystal Palace ( w) West Brom v West Ham (w) West Ham v Tottenham Man C v West Ham (W) 12 pts = 43< Table based on winnable games 10) Stoke 11) Hull 12) Aston Villa 13) West Brom 14) Swansea 15) West Ham 16) Crystal Palace 17) Sunderland 18) Norwich (R) 19) Cardiff (R) 20) Fulham (R) What's your thoughts? Looks likely to me apart from Norwich and West Brom. Ps No Monk v Laudrup talk please!!!
Thanks swan_and_only you've saved me the effort (and panic) of doing this myself It's such an exciting end to the season with the usual '40 points = safety' mentality going out the window! The most important thing now is picking up points against teams who are also facing the drop.
Switch Norwich and WBA and plump us up to 12th. Cardiff and Fulham are already gone for me, so it's 6-7 fighting to avoid the last spot
I agree with 99% of that - however I think Southampton have been given too much credit. I would consider them a winnable game for everyone.
I think Southampton have been great this season and as good as we were last season (minus a major trophy) I do think they have peaked and may struggle to keep their key players this summer. Any game is winnable by any team, my methodology was only trying to highlight the amount of games each team in the lower half of the table will have against each other. I think each team will really try to focus and go all out to win those games and mainly try to prevent a big thumping by the teams in the upper half. I do think it will make an amazing finish to the season and hope we can get ourselves out of the scrap before it gets too desperate.
(w) = targeted as a winnable game, not predicting an actual win. So the final points are the maximum points that teams can realistically expect to finish on. Eg <40 means likely to finish on less than 40 points It's quite simple if you actually read! And my predictions are coming along nicely.
Amendments: 2 shock results today Villa and Fulham as a result I think it's sealed survival for villa but most probably a case of too little too late for Fulham. (w) = targeted as a winnable game, not predicting an actual win. So the final points are the maximum points that teams can realistically expect to finish on. New: (B) bonus points Eg <40 means likely to finish on less than 40 points Fulham 24 pts Fulham v Newcastle (B) Man City v Fulham Fulham v Everton Aston Villa v Fulham (w) Fulham v Norwich City (w) Tottenham v Fulham Fulham v Hull City (w) Stoke City v Fulham (w) Fulham v Crystal Palace (w) (W) 15 pts = 39< up Sunderland 25 pts Man City v Sunderland Sunderland v West Brom (w) Sunderland v Crystal Palace (w) (D) Norwich City v Sunderland (w) Liverpool v Sunderland Sunderland v West Ham (w) Tottenham v Sunderland Sunderland v Everton Chelsea v Sunderland Sunderland v Cardiff City (w) Man U v Sunderland Sunderland v Swansea (w) (W) 15 pts = 40< down Cardiff 25 pts Everton v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Liverpool West Brom v. Cardiff City (w) Cardiff City v. Crystal Palace(w) Southampton v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Stoke City (w) Sunderland v. Cardiff City (w) Newcastle United v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Chelsea (W) 12 pts = 37< No change West Brom 28 pts Sunderland v West Brom (w) Swansea City v West Brom (w) Hull City v West Brom (w) West Brom v Cardiff City (w) Norwich City v West Brom (w) West Brom v Tottenham Man City v West Brom West Brom v West Ham (w) Arsenal v West Brom West Brom v Stoke City (w) (W) 18 pts = 46< No change Crystal Palace 28 pts Everton v Crystal Palace Sunderland v Crystal Palace (w) (D) Newcastle v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace v Chelsea Cardiff City v Crystal Palace (w) Crystal Palace v Aston Villa (w) West Ham v Crystal Palace (w) Crystal Palace v Man City Crystal Palace v Liverpool Fulham v Crystal Palace (w) (W) 15 pts = 40< down Norwich City 29 pts Southampton v Norwich City Norwich City v Sunderland (w) Swansea City v Norwich City (w) Norwich City v West Brom (w) Fulham v Norwich City (w) Norwich City v Liverpool Man United v Norwich City Chelsea v Norwich City Norwich City v Arsenal (W) 12 pts = 41< no change Swansea City 29 pts Swansea City v West Brom (w) Everton v Swansea City Arsenal v Swansea City Swansea City v Norwich City (w) Hull City v Swansea City (w) Swansea City v Chelsea Newcastle v Swansea City Swansea City v Aston Villa (w) Swansea City v Southampton Sunderland v Swansea City (w) (W) 15 pts = 41< Down Hull 30 pts Hull v Man City Hull v West Brom (w) West Ham v Hull (w) Stoke v Hull (w) Hull v Swansea (w) Man U v Hull Hull v Arsenal Fulham V Hull (w) Aston Villa v Hull (w) Hull v Everton (W) 18 pts = 48< no change Stoke 34 pts Stoke v West Ham (w) Aston Villa v Stoke (w) Stoke v Hull (w) Chelsea V Stoke Stoke v Newcastle Cardiff v Stoke (w) Stoke v Tottenham Stoke v Fulham (w) West Brom v Stoke (w) (W) 18 pts = 49< No change Aston Villa 34 pts Aston Villa v Chelsea (B) Aston Villa v Stoke (w) Man U v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Fulham (w) Crystal Palace v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Southampton Swansea v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Hull (w) Tottenham v Aston Villa (W) 18 pts = 52< up West Ham 31 pts Stoke v West Ham (w) West Ham v Man U West Ham v Hull (w) Sunderland v West Ham (w) West Ham v Liverpool Arsenal v West Ham West Ham v Crystal Palace ( w) West Brom v West Ham (w) West Ham v Tottenham Man C v West Ham (W) 12 pts = 43< down New amended table: Maximum points realistically achievable, not a prediction of the final table!!!!!! 10) Aston Villa 52 11) Stoke 49 12) Hull 48 13) West Brom 46 14) West Ham 43 15) Swansea 41 16) Norwich 41 17) Sunderland 40 18) Crystal Palace (R) 40 19) Fulham (R) 39 20) Cardiff (R) 37 Looks like we're getting dragged into the relegation mix and are by no means safe!
9+ points! That's all we need to get us safe IMO! So where do we get them from? Everton v Swansea City (L) Arsenal v Swansea City (L) Swansea City v Norwich City (W) Hull City v Swansea City (D) Swansea City v Chelsea (L) Newcastle v Swansea City (D) Swansea City v Aston Villa (W) Swansea City v Southampton (D) Sunderland v Swansea City (W) 12 points Am I being optimistic?
If we are safe by the last game of the season and Sunderland need to win to stay up and send Cardiff down, I fully expect us to lose this game
TBH as much as I hate Cardiff, I would prefer them to stay up. Because some of the reception I have had from over half of the other English teams forums have made me hate them more! Eg we hope you and Cardiff get relegated because you don't belong in the EPL is a common reaction! And I find it shocking! So now any time a welsh team win, I have a chuckle knowing that its pissing off a right wing English knob fan!
But if Cardiff go down we can get Caulker on the cheap, because we are crying out for a defender of his quality at the heart of our defence. Him and Bartley could be a beast of a partnership.
Amendments: 0 shock results today. Stoke and Villa play Sunday, but both are looking safe (w) = targeted as a winnable game, not predicting an actual win. So the final points are the maximum points that teams can realistically expect to finish on. New: (B) bonus points Eg <40 means likely to finish on less than 40 points Fulham 24 pts Fulham v Newcastle (B) Man City v Fulham Fulham v Everton Aston Villa v Fulham (w) Fulham v Norwich City (w) Tottenham v Fulham Fulham v Hull City (w) Stoke City v Fulham (w) Fulham v Crystal Palace (w) (W) 15 pts = 39< no change Sunderland 25 pts Man City v Sunderland Sunderland v West Brom (w) Sunderland v Crystal Palace (w) (D) Norwich City v Sunderland (L) Liverpool v Sunderland Sunderland v West Ham (w) Tottenham v Sunderland Sunderland v Everton Chelsea v Sunderland Sunderland v Cardiff City (w) Man U v Sunderland Sunderland v Swansea (w) (W) 12pts = 37< down Cardiff 25 pts Everton v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Liverpool West Brom v. Cardiff City (w) Cardiff City v. Crystal Palace(w) Southampton v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Stoke City (w) Sunderland v. Cardiff City (w) Newcastle United v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Chelsea (W) 12 pts = 37< No change West Brom 28 pts Sunderland v West Brom (w) Swansea City v West Brom (w) Hull City v West Brom (w)(L) West Brom v Cardiff City (w) Norwich City v West Brom (w) West Brom v Tottenham Man City v West Brom West Brom v West Ham (w) Arsenal v West Brom West Brom v Stoke City (w) (W) 18 pts = 43< Down Crystal Palace 28 pts Everton v Crystal Palace Sunderland v Crystal Palace (w) (D) Newcastle v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace v Chelsea Cardiff City v Crystal Palace (w) Crystal Palace v Aston Villa (w) West Ham v Crystal Palace (w) Crystal Palace v Man City Crystal Palace v Liverpool Fulham v Crystal Palace (w) (W) 12 pts = 40< No Change Norwich City 32 pts Southampton v Norwich City Norwich City v Sunderland (w) Swansea City v Norwich City (w) Norwich City v West Brom (w) Fulham v Norwich City (w) Norwich City v Liverpool Man United v Norwich City Chelsea v Norwich City Norwich City v Arsenal (W) 12 pts = 41< no change Swansea City 29 pts Swansea City v West Brom (w) (L) Everton v Swansea City Arsenal v Swansea City Swansea City v Norwich City (w) Hull City v Swansea City (w) Swansea City v Chelsea Newcastle v Swansea City Swansea City v Aston Villa (w) Swansea City v Southampton Sunderland v Swansea City (w) (W) 15 pts = 41< No Change Hull 33 pts Hull v Man City Hull v West Brom (w) West Ham v Hull (w) Stoke v Hull (w) Hull v Swansea (w) Man U v Hull Hull v Arsenal Fulham V Hull (w) Aston Villa v Hull (w) Hull v Everton (W) 18 pts = 48< no change Stoke 34 pts Stoke v West Ham (w) Aston Villa v Stoke (w) Stoke v Hull (w) Chelsea V Stoke Stoke v Newcastle Cardiff v Stoke (w) Stoke v Tottenham Stoke v Fulham (w) West Brom v Stoke (w) (W) 18 pts = 49< No change Aston Villa 34 pts Aston Villa v Chelsea (B) Aston Villa v Stoke (w) Man U v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Fulham (w) Crystal Palace v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Southampton Swansea v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Hull (w) Tottenham v Aston Villa (W) 18 pts = 52< no change West Ham 31 pts Stoke v West Ham (w) West Ham v Man U West Ham v Hull (w) Sunderland v West Ham (w) West Ham v Liverpool Arsenal v West Ham West Ham v Crystal Palace ( w) West Brom v West Ham (w) West Ham v Tottenham Man C v West Ham (W) 12 pts = 43< no change New amended table: Maximum points realistically achievable, not a prediction of the final table!!!!!! 10) Aston Villa 52 11) Stoke 49 12) Hull 48 13) West Brom 46 14) West Ham 43 15) Swansea 41 16) Norwich 41 17) Crystal Palace 40 18) Fulham 39 (R) 19) Sunderland 37 (R) 20) Cardiff 37 (R) This is getting too close for me! We must pick up some bonus points to relieve some of the pressure! I know not many people care or bother to try and understand my methodology, but I'm going to keep it going till the end of the season.
The problem with the above is that we lose the games we can realistically win, while other teams pick up points where you might not expect them to. Your logic is totally flawed.
It tries to measure the difficulty of fixtures ahead of each club in the bottom half, obviously there will be shock results.
