Was curious (and sad) enough to do a bit of research around the likelihood of QPR getting relegated at this end of the season given recent form. Set out below are the Bottom Three at the end of the last 10 seasons. In the square brackets are where they were in the league table around the 20-22 December, along with their points tally at that time. Observations: [1] All three relegated teams were in the bottom five just before Christmas in each of the six seasons up and including 2006-07. QPR are in the bottom five right now with 16pts. [2] In the last four seasons, one of the relegated teams has been around mid-table at this time of the year. This also might suggest that the form improved for one of the pre-Xmas struggling sides. [3] Fourteen of the thirty relegated teams over the ten years (46%) had accumulated 16pts or more at this stage of the season. [4] Seventeen of the thirty relegated teams over the ten years (57%) were in relegation places at this stage of the season. I would say that there is pretty good chance that at least two of the teams occupying the relegation places will still be there come the end of the season, but that there's about a 50/50 chance that a teams in 16th or 17th place today will be joining them. Data: 2010-11 18th Birmingham 39pts [16th, 18pts] 19th Blackpool 39pts [10th, 22pts] 20th West Ham 33pts [20th, 13pts] 2009-10 18th Burnley 30pts [14th, 19pts] 19th Hull City 30pts [17th, 17pts] 20th Portsmouth 19pts [20th, 14pts] 2008-09 18th Newcastle 34pts [12th, 22pts] 19th Middlesbrough 32pts [14th, 20pts] 20th WBA 32pts [20th, 15pts] 2007-08 18th Reading 36pts [12th, 21pts] 19th Birmingham 35pts [16th, 15pts] 20th Derby 11pts [20th, 6pts] 2006-07 18th Sheff Utd 38pts [16th, 20pts] 19th Charlton 34pts [19th, 12pts] 20th Watford 28pts [20th, 11pts] 2005-06 18th Birmingham 34pts [19th, 12pts] 19th WBA 30pts [17th, 16pts] 20th Sunderland 15pts [20th, 5pts] 2004-05 18th Palace 33pts [18th, 14pts] 19th Norwich 33pts [17th, 15pts] 20th Saints 32pts [19th, 13pts] 2003-04 18th Leicester 33pts [17th, 16pts] 19th Leeds 33pts [19th, 16pts] 20th Wolves 33pts [20th, 11pts] 2002-03 18th West Ham 42pts [20th, 14pts] 19th WBA 26pts [18th, 16pts] 20th Sunderland 19pts [17th, 18pts] 2001-02 18th Ipswich 36pts [20th, 12pts] 19th Derby 30pts [18th, 16pts] 20th Leicester 28pts [19th 15pts]
Interesting that the average points tally for 18th place is 35.5 (we'll call it 36). That said I think 40 points would be more than enough for safety this year given the fact the top teams are performing very well.
Uber, thanks for that. Scary reading. I wonder if there has ever been a team that was hamstrung in the summer and then had serious purchasing power in January? Not a criticism, just a thought.
