This is only going to interest the Stat freaks,so if you are not look away now. I have analysed the number of points needed to avoid relegation since 1995/6 in The Premiership and the results it reveals are as follows: On seven occasions out of sixteen 36 points or more have been needed to avoid relegation .On every one of these the total number of points scored by the top 5 teams has been less than 368.This season it looks like the top 5 teams will end up with around 390 points.On this basis I predict that the safety line this season will be 34 points.
If you're inclined to do more mathematical analyses, I'd be interested to see how the number of points required varies by the total number of points earned in the league too. Hypothetically, the more draws there are in a season, the less points are available, making the points a team earns more valuable, so potentially reducing the number of points required to survive. However, I think you're method of looking at the points won by the top 5 teams has a lot going for it too, as that is where the majority of points go.
If you plot the 17th place teams points scored on a vertical axis and the top 5 teams total points on the horizontal the positions move downwards as you go.A fairly wide spread but sufficient to prove my hypothesis I think.
The problem with that analysis would be how many points the bottom teams take off the top ones anyway... probably not many. A pattern is insufficient to prove a hypothesis
