Red or Black: Is This Johnson’s Final Bold Gamble?

Red or Black: Is this Johnson’s final bold gamble?

Oh, for those boring Transfer Deadline Days when Bristol City don’t sign anyone and the only movement is a bit-part player out on loan to Cheltenham…

I think it’s safe to say that if you’d suggested over breakfast this morning that City would try to re-sign Bobby Reid, not sign a centre-back and let Jamie Paterson and Marlon Pack leave the club, that people would have been sniffing your cereal for Diamond White.

The question is, was that a good transfer window or not? I think the majority would say yes, given much of what is outlined below, but the events of this afternoon have left many a little uncertain about exactly what happened.

We broke our transfer record – twice if you count Massengo’s fee as being above the previous record of Diedhiou. We smashed through our wages ceiling for Kalas, and maybe others (Afobe?).

We brought in 12 players and spent nearly £30m. We have decent back up in pretty much every position (except left-back where I have my doubts about Rowe’s ability to step up for any period of time), and finally, well beyond 5pm tonight, landed another striking option. A biggish name, with Championship pedigree, even if he was number three of four on our list.

Have I mentioned we spent nearly £30m – that’s THIRTY MILLION pounds – and secured the services of the immense Kalas, possibly the best left back in the division in Jay Dasilva and the mercurial talents of Kasey Palmer. We added a £4m goalkeeper who’ll presumably play 46 league games unless he drops a clanger or gets injured.

We added options like the promising Sammie Szmodics and then suddenly added to the initial summer spurt with a series of out-of-the-blue anti-Brexit European signings.

Given subsequent events, you assume Adam Nagy has been bought to play regularly. It’s bold, signing a player whose career has stuttered somewhat in the last year to suddenly step up and play 40+ games, but the ability (or attributes as Lee Johnson and Mark Ashton are so keen of talking about) seems to be there.

Pedro Pereira is possibly one of the lowest key signings we made, but given we have Taylor Moore and Bailey Wright who can already fill in at right back for Jack Hunt, you have to assume he’s been signed to play regularly, rather than as a back up. I identified Hunt as a potential upgrade option in my end of season blog, and Sunday’s relative capitulation only added weight to those thoughts.

Massengo is understandably being heralded by Messrs Johnson and Ashton as a coup, and is an eye-catching signing. But at 18 and with only a handful of senior appearances behind him, it’s asking a massive amount for him to step into the hurly-burly of the ultra-competitive Championship and play a significant number of games. He’s clearly been bought for his potential as much as his current ability, and it’ll be interesting to see how Johnson uses him.

All of that points to a quite incredible summer.

But…..but.

We recouped around £35m in transfer fees, even if half of that seemed to be inevitable but relatively unexpected. We lost our best player and haven’t replaced him with a new signing. For five months we’re relying on injury-prone Nathan Baker and Bailey Wright backing up an unproven Taylor Moore. It’s one massive leap of faith in him if we’ve actively chosen not to recruit – it’s the one position that proper links never really materialised in this last week.

Benik Afobe is probably a far better option than many fans thought we’d have at 3pm this afternoon, and is a decent enough signing given the lack of realistic and available alternative options, but following the u-turn of Eddie Nketiah and the failed grab back of Reid, it still feels a little bit of a flat move.

And then there’s Marlon. Talk about a shock! Whichever side of the fence you sit on his contribution and ability – he’s always had a certain section who don’t rate him – I don’t think anyone expected us to be shipping him out today.

Paterson’s move was less of a surprise when you consider we’ve signed Szmodics and Palmer to play in the position he’s mainly been occupying for the last 18 months. Personally I’m not convinced Palmer offers much more, but he’s got more natural ability and it’s now down to Johnson to extract that consistently. Callum O’Dowda must have been offered to every other Championship club as the preferred outgoing you’d assume, but the lack of takers meant we had to look to trim the suddenly bloated squad where we could.

But Marlon Pack? He played almost every minute last season, was captain on Sunday and looked to be the anchor around which the new midfield signings would gel around. I wrote in May about potentially needing to upgrade on him – despite my endearing man love for him – but even so I expected that to be a more gradual process, with an established player coming in as a more senior option (maybe the likes of Ryan Woods). I certainly didn’t expect him to suddenly be turfed out of the door, moved along to make way for a bright new era and maybe a new style of play.

It feels a bit sad, like the end of an era. Virtually ever-present for the last five years, he became as much a part of the club as any player since the days of Carey, Murray and Tinnion. I genuinely thought he’d be here for life, gradually transitioning into coaching roles as his playing career dwindled a few years from now.

Personally, I’m gutted, shocked and disappointed in equal measure. Not a single bit of me was imagining life at Ashton Gate without Marlon Pack and the suddenness of his departure only added to the emotion of it.

His departure leaves only midfield comrade Korey Smith as one of the 2015 double-winners still at Ashton Gate. We’ve moved on a lot in four years, but that squad was special and had a relatively unique camaraderie, shown up by the weddings and holidays they all attend together each year.

But life moves on and football clubs do apace. Pack’s removal is a big gamble from Johnson, however.

Is it the last gamble he’ll make at Ashton Gate? He’ll feel desperately disappointed that City weren’t able to land Nketiah or Reid. He’ll have surely wanted a replacement centre-back. Despite £30m spent, you wonder if he has been backed as much as feels he should have been, given the fees earned by Kelly and Webster and his progressive record since becoming manager.

He clearly believes he needs to move the team on in style and approach and he’s made his call. Bold, you could say…

If it works, then fantastic. We’re all happy, he stays and we move up. Mission accomplished!

However, if it only works to a degree and we end up somewhere between 7-11th again, then what of his desire to manage at the top level? There’s only so long a hugely ambitious young manager with a growing profile will sit and watch his players get the moves they want to the Premier League without feeling the need to take the leap himself. I may be miles off the mark, but I can’t help but wonder if he’s rolled the dice for the last time at Ashton Gate.
http://theexiledrobin.org/2019/08/johnsonsgamble/

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A good, informative collection of thoughts and ongoing developments.

I hadn't realized that LJ had spent £30m and had £34m incoming but it does demonstrate SL has backed the man to the hilt, let us all hope we get the end result of the promised land this season, it's time.