I spend my days analysing management information, looking for directional trends in performance to provide forecasts and recommendations to business leaders. With much debate around whether Hess should be shown the door or not, I thought I'd apply the same principles to provide some insight and spark some informed debate. Firstly, if we compare the points haul for the first 12 games this season compared to last we see 18 versus 14, which would suggest an improvement in performance. Secondly, as we all know the season is described as a marathon rather than a sprint. A good guide to current season long form is the points collected in the most recent 46 league games. For the 46 games up to and including Port Vale last Saturday, we had achieved 72 points. For the 46 games up to Wimbledon away it was 72 points and going back, one game at a time to Chesterfield away as the 46th game of last season, our full season points total has been 75, 72, 70, 73, 73, 75, 75, 73, 72, 70 and 68. So our 46 game form is currently around 72/73 points. Last season 68 points was good enough for the play-offs and in 08/09 when we last escaped this league 70 points made the play-offs, whilst 80 and 78 points respectively secured an automatic spot in those seasons. Data therefore suggests we're a comfortable play-off side. Are calls for the manager's head therefore justified? Personally I feel not, but please discuss.
Having an interest in stats myself, this further proves that any calls for Hessy's head are still unjustified. I predicted 16 points at this stage of the season and we currently have 18, so we are on target for my own personal forecast of 76 points for the season. Last season it took us 17 games to achieve the same number of points we are now on. However, based only on my predictions, we are now moving in to the most critical part of the season in the run up to Christmas, this is the period which will decide imo if Hessy has built a side capable of promotion. Also stretching over this period, Hessy has got a difficult target ahead, in that between the 20th Nov 2010 to 1st Jan 2011, we registered five straight wins. Despite what I see as a reasonable start to the season, I have to be honest and say, that I don't feel confident that we can achieve the much more difficult personal predictions in the run up to Christmas. Unfortunately the honeymoon is now over and this is where it MUST now all come together. Pressure, what pressure!!
Comparing points total this season to last is largely irrelevent as teams change so much from year to year. What is significant is how you get on with teams that are above or around you, and in that respect we are falling short. This has got to be addressed quickly or the top half dozen teams will be out of reach,or at least we'll struggle to catch them. Its no good fans saying look at the run we went on last season to get near the play offs. Then we had Bayo setting up chances for Cody, and this season we don't have a prolific scorer (at least not yet) and apart from the away game at Hereford we've not been that convincing in front of goal.We needed a twice taken penalty against Port Vale and 2 pens against a poor Plymouth. At Southend, who I thought were poor, we couldn't even get a draw against their 10 men.
I agree that, despite different teams being involved, moving averages are a reasonable guide to longer term prospcts. However as brb says, the Nov / Jan period was very successful last year after the away win drought was finally broken, so we'll have to go some even to maintain the recent average. I'm certainly not calling for Hessy's head, but there is no doubt that we need to improve further, and soon. I'm not sure that the lottery of play-offs will represent a successful season, and therefore the target should be the 78-80 points required for automatic promotion. Also, as vinney says, we are falling short when it comes to performances against the teams above us. Looking at it another way, 80 points is about 1.74 points per game. At the moment we're at 1.66. And for reference the current 3rd place team (Wombles) are averaging 1.92, so there's obviously a lot of work to be done.
I'm not aware any one is calling for the managers head yet. Frankly what our points total was last year is totally irrelevant. In all walks of like people are monitored by their results and how succesful you've been. If a chairman supports you and allows you to build a large team with lots of quality he should expect results from his manager. If the manager isn't successful we should get someone in who can do the job, but i would give Hessy until the end of the season. I never thought i would say that!! For those of you who didn't know already...I'm not a Hessy fan.
It seems to be a bit rich to criticise the defence which is the nearest thing to a success story this year (admittedly it has not looked quite so strong over the last month when all four have had an injury). 15 goals have been conceded so far in 12 league games with only 4 conceded at home. Only 2 teams can better the Gills home goals conceded and the aggregate total conceded is well short of Crawley and Wimbledon who occupy two of the top three places. The back four have had one match to forget, against Wimbledon when there were some extenuating circumstances. Flitney looks the first rock solid goalie for years and when Fuller/Lawrence/Frampton/Martin have been together they have looked effective. As a bonus Fish has looked useful for a youngster just making his first appearances at league level. As a package with more than half the team newcomers they are not doing badly in adjusting to a new environment. The disappointing bit has been the performances of the "quality" signings (Lee and Whelpdale) and expectations seem to be beyond Kedwell's ability to deliver. The benchmarks against which Hessy should be judged seem to me to be; 1 Clearing out the rubbish left by Dimson (which he has half done). 2 Overcoming the phobia of winning away (which he has done). 3 Producing some youngsters capable of making the first team and then selling on (which he seems to be doing) 4 Assembling a squad from the bargain basement capable of playing at a higher level and which is young enough to improve (which I think most people would say he has done) 5 Getting the squad to play to its full potential (which he has not done but is work in progress). So how long do you allow for work in progress? I suspect the answer is until at least the end of 2012 unless there is a reversal in progress. The key thing of course is could anyone else do better at the salary and with the resources on offer?
I don't wish to throw a spanner in the works but can someone confirm what our PpG is at the moment? I make it 1.50 over 12 games, which with the exception of 2005/06 - 2008/09 - 2010/11 have been the only seasons where 69 points have been enough to make a play off place, under the name of League Two. Which fits with why I earlier suggested that we are now moving into the critical run up period to Christmas. If we fail to make up the difference over the coming months, then it will be an uphill task in the new year.
I so wished it was, the stats say that is 3 places higher, which requires more points over the next 7 months, which requires 11 men to play football, for us to achieve more than 69 points, which means we need another 51 points, over another 34 games. 7 months + 3 places x 11 men + 51 points / 34 games = 69 points Oh, yeah, simples
To get 80 points in round figures,it is 7 points per 4 games. We've played 12 games so divide that by 4 and multiply by 7 and we should have 21 points. We 're 3 points below target. By the time we have played our 16th game this month we should have obtained 28 points. Out of our next 4 games we need to amass 10 so we can only afford to drop 2 points against Torquay, Oxford, Swindon and Morcombe. Thats a tall order.
We wont be getting 80 points hopefully over 70 which should make the play offs but with no stand out team could get 3rd
Rather than create another thread, I thought I would follow on from this one again... So let's assess the statistics on how are we doing now we are at the end of October, since the start of the season the monthly points have totalled as follows: August - 10 points from five games September - 7 points from five games October - 7 points from six games So it appears our performance is getting worse not better, however, overall against my original prediction of 76 points for this season, we are currently on an actual of 24 points versus my forecast of 23 at this stage. Which if we were to continue along this form would achieve us an end result of 77+ points. Now for the really bad news, for this forecast I predicted us pre season to take 13 points from our next five games! A difficult task maybe but that is what happens if you are inconsistent, the task just becomes harder as the season goes on. My lowest points per game forecast is next in February, which is really the only other Month I can see us making up ground. People may knock the stats but the further into the season you go the more difficult the task becomes, if we trail to far behind on points. Therefore it is important to make ground early and save the nerves of us Gills fans. To be certain of a play off place, you need to be aiming for 76 points and any place achieved with less is a bonus. As for autos, not a chance unless our current performance improves.
Sorry to ask brb but am I missing something? On one hand you say we're 1point above your prediction for this point of the season, this is surely a good thing? But for some reason, no matter how many times I read your post, it actually comes across negative. Now I accept that it maybe just the way I'm reading it or that I have been corrupted by lots of overly negative rubbish written on other sites but do you mean for what you write to be negative?
"Now for the really bad news, for this forecast I predicted us pre season to take 13 points from our next five games" i think we can do that, or at least 10 points , which will put us nicely in the play offs. Trouble is we are liable to drop straight back out after a few matches against decent opposition who will once again make a good team on paper look poor in practise.
I mean it as a positive that could possibly turn in to a negative, on CURRENT performance. I've proportioned my forecast for each month over the course of the season, the positive is that we were well ahead of (my) forecast in August, hence at that time we were auto candidates. However, over the last two months we have taken a gradual down turn but because we started the season so well, that down turn is only just starting to show but remaining one point ahead of forecast (due to August). Now where does the negative come in...we need to take 13 points from our next five games! BelfastBlue has posted since that believes it is achievable. I hope so because the only opportunity to gain ground in my forecast will be in February, unless we suddenly turn in to some invincible team. Once Christmas is out of the way things will be a lot clearer, the trouble is people live for the result of every match but the reality is to be sure of at least a play off, you want to be gaining in the region of 76 points, so where are the remaining 52 points going to come from (hence the invincible team comment)? The last time I did any forecast like this...ok, do you really want the bad news...was in our last League One season 2009/10, when I forecast us to get 51 points! Only this time a one point difference might be a positive thing, instead of a negative - lol
lets be honest we are going to need something close to our 14 game run from last year to get autos in all likely hood unless only 2 teams pull away from the pack and we are the best of the rest, on current form i think playoffs are more than a possibility given we have played a lot of the top teams and many of those away, against the good teams at home we havent done 2 bad with a few good results. the pieces are there we just need them to slot into place, xmas run with a fully fit (bar birchall maybe) squad and i think thing should improve dramatically
To continue this thread for the end of November performance, tomorrow the Gills face Bradford and a win would see the Gills turn in the best points ratio for a month so far. August, 10 points - played five games September, 7 points - played five games October, 7 points - played six games November, a win against Bradford would see 9 points taken in three games. My pre season forecasts for promotion, were showing 30 points AFTER the Bradford game, so we are already at that target, so additional points now, will help towards my very heavy expectation in January. As for my December pre season forecasts, well I've predicted 2 wins (Macclesfield, Bristol Rovers) and 2 loses (Crawley, Dag & Red), regardless of the outcomes against those individual teams, I believe 6 points out of 12 is a fair expectation in December.
