Racing Post Trophy Preview: Palmer apprentice can land the top job please log in to view this image By Keith Melrose -- published 20th October 2015 Timeform's Keith Melrose previews Saturday's Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, the final Group 1 of the British Flat season. These final weeks of the Flat turf season serve two purposes: to appoint the champions of 2015, but also to fill vacancies for 2016 that will shape the opening exchanges of that season. British Champions Day on Saturday provided plenty for both categories. While Muhaarar and Solow confirmed their champion status, Twilight Son and Jack Hobbs have styled themselves as The One To Beat in their respective divisions for next year. Future Champions Day gave us a crossover. As well as pretty much ensuring Champion Juvenile honours in the Dewhurst, Air Force Blue also took his new role as the winter Guineas favourite. Much the same goes for Fillies’ Mile winner Minding. We have one position along those lines yet to be filled, that of winter Derby favourite. It’s a post often taken by the winner of the Racing Post Trophy and given thatFoundation, currently temping as Derby favourite, is among the interviewees in this year’s renewal, it’s fancied that Saturday’s winner will get the job. Though it’s strictly incidental to Saturday’s race, Foundation wouldn’t be the sort of head on which the Derby crown rests easy. He essentially isn’t bred for a mile and a half, having a pedigree filled with seven-furlong/mile horses and the odd one that stayed 10 furlongs. He’s the best of sire Zoffany’s first crop at the moment, though Zoffany’s other success stories this year are headed by Cheveley Park runner-up Illuminate and Windsor Castle winner Washington DC. It was also Foundation’s speed that proved crucial when he won the Royal Lodge last month. Though it was a soundly-run race overall, he got the jump on Deauville who was outpaced three furlongs out and held the advantage to the line. That same speed will give Foundation a clear edge against the more stoutly-bred sorts that look set to make up the majority of his rivals at Doncaster, so he’s a solid favourite, the type to sparkle in an interview even if there are reservations about him being up to the job. Deauville could re-oppose on Saturday and currently leads the five-strong Aidan O’Brien team in the betting. It was surprising that he looked so slow at Ascot, having demonstrated the speed to see off Sanus Per Aquam in the Tyros Stakes the time before. He’s not bred to be a plodder, either, by Galileo and a brother to The Corsican, who is the strongest stayer in his immediate family. The feeling is he might also be quicker than Johannes Vermeer and Shogun, the other two leading Ballydoyle horses who both looked a bit short of pace in the Jean-Luc Lagardere last time. O’Brien’s other two entrants are Port Douglas and Black Sea. The first-named caused a shock the Beresford Stakes last time, making all to hold off True Solitaire and subsequent Autumn Stakes runner-up Beacon Rock. It’s possible he was flattered, which would chime with the vibes from his stable which suggest he isn’t up there with the Deauvilles and Johannes Vermeers, let alone Air Force Blue. Black Sea comes here straight out of maidens, winning one full of longer-term prospects last time. Not that going from maidens to Group 1s is necessarily a bad thing. Recent winners Kingsbarns and Camelot took that big jump in one, while if you go back a little further subsequent Derby winner Authorized took a similar route. With this race looking pretty well-set among the market principals, taking a punt on one of the climbers could be the best approach to an ante-post bet. There are three besides Black Sea that fit into this category and it’s easy to agree with the market, which nominates Mengli Khan as by far the most dangerous. The Newmarket maiden in which Mengli Khan made his debut in September was pretty close to the archetype. Plenty of big yards and eye-catching pedigrees were on show and, in event, many of them shaped with long-term promise. Mengli Khan caught the eye more than most, slowly away and clearly green but finishing strongly under mostly hands and heels. He obviously caught plenty of people’s attention, as when he appeared at Nottingham less than a fortnight later he was odds-on in another strong field. At Nottingham, Mengli Khan didn’t disappoint for all he was still clearly green. Presented to lead two furlongs out, he kept on well despite edging right to win by over three lengths. In second was Across The Stars (a £600,000 Sea The Stars half-brother to Bronze Cannon), third was Daqeeq (New Approach half-brother to a batch of useful sorts) and fourth, beaten more than seven lengths, was ‘large-P’ carrier Brorocco. Not only was the form attractive, but Mengli Khan married a creditable timefigure with a strong finishing sectional, which suggests that he can already both stay well and quicken, which covers most of the bases in a typical Racing Post Trophy. It’s Mengli Khan’s inexperience that still stands against him, though less can often be more in the Racing Post Trophy. Half of the winners in the last decade have been no more experienced than he is and many of those hadn’t achieved the sort of form that he has- not Authorized, nor Camelot. Those two, of course, went on to win the Derby, and though it would be extremely premature to make such grand predictions for Mengli Khan, it’s thought that he’d be a suitable candidate to carry the title of winter Derby favourite into 2016 should he win on Saturday. Recommended bet: Back Mengli Khan at 14/1 in the Racing Post Trophy
Over the years I have become quite indifferent to the Racing Post Trophy as it is frequently run on soft ground and won by something that does little as a three year old. In that respect it is akin to the Critérium International and the Grand Critérium de Saint-Cloud at the end of October and beginning of November in France. Timeform seem to think that Camelot (2011, subsequent Derby winner) and Authorized (2006, subsequent Derby winner), make this the perfect place to find the ante post Derby favourite. Who cares what is Derby favourite on Christmas Day unless it shows up at Epsom in June and wins? They mention Kingsbarns (2012), winner of nothing subsequently, but conveniently forget Casamento (2010), Crowded House (2008) and Ibn Khaldun (2007) – all winners of nothing – and Kingston Hill (2013) – winner of the St Leger – and Elm Park (2014) – winner of one minor event. If only we could return to the days when this was the William Hill Futurity. Now what happened to the 1986 winner, Henry Cecil’s second string that day, Reference Point? In the last thirty years, the race has only produced five Derby winners so I would rather back maiden race winner So Mi Dar for The Oaks at 25/1 than any named horse in the Racing Post Trophy to win the 2016 Derby. With seven declared, Foundation could well be good enough to win this year’s renewal but makes little appeal as a Derby ante post wager and I have similarly little interest in Aidan O’Brien’s Deauville or any of his other options. If the ground does not turn up too soft on Town Moor, this already looks like just a watching brief.
Deauville "...looked so slow at Ascot...". Must have had a training gallop there before the Royal Lodge at Newmarket...where he looked even slower...
