Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Ascot Saturday

It seems ages since I placed my ante-post bet on this mile race on Champions Day. Contenders have come and gone since then, some sadly injured and others just not lived up to expectations.

My first dart landed with Lord Glitters at 14/1 in the hope that he would get soft ground to help close the ability gap on some of the smarter types. He is a consistent sort who has found the ground too lively on occasions but he is talented enough in his own right.

Looking at the betting later I saw Lord Glitters was 8/1 and he shared those odds with Recoletos and Without Parole. Despite doing Without Parole ante-post at 12/1 for the St James Palace Stakes, my confidence was dented somewhat by his prep race, where I thought he beat a rag-tag bunch unconvincingly. I felt a but fortunate to collect at the Royal Meeting and was against the Gosden horse thereafter. I had him down as a lay at 8/1 and he's 20/1 now.

I was on Recoletos ante-post in last season's French Derby and I felt he was going to win on the day but he just weakened in the final furlong to finish third. I decided to back him for the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot ante-post but the ground came up very fast on the day and he never featured. At the time I put it down to the fast ground and I also wondered if Ascot wasn't his track. Those were the reasons that I didn't play him for this race.

All too late the trainer of Recoletos gave an interview where he explained that his horse was tested BEFORE the Queen Anne and that the colt had a phobia of needles. The horse reacted badly to experience and his chance was gone before the stalls opened.

I reckon a mile and soft Ground is what Recoletos needs and he lost no caste in chasing Alpha Centauri home. His form was not given the chance to be franked after he beat Wind Chimes because the Fabre filly was diagnosed with a fibrillating heart and retired after finishing tailed off when suffering an abnormal heart rhythm in what turned out to be her final race.

Only 3/1 now, Recoletos ticks several boxes and will like the current soft/heavy ground but his run behind Alpha Centauri has not worked out very well.

Lord Glitters was kept ticking over towards this target with a Group 3 win over Mustashry, who went on to win his next 2 starts. What followed was a folly to my eyes, as he went to Woodbine to chase a big pot on lightning fast ground. That race was never going to play to his strengths and that experience may have a negative effect. A few horses seem to be ruined by chasing shadows round greyhound tracks on runway like ground. He's 7/1 now and at half the odds I took I am not sure I see value.

Laurens has had a big season. She's been tough and eked out tight wins but she managed to get beat when I backed her at 10/1 for the Guineas. The rub of the green can't keep going in her favour in the tight finishes and up against older horses and male contenders her task looks testing at odds of only 4/1. It also has to be observed that Alpha Centauri and Wind Chimes went wrong in two of Laurens' wins.

Roaring Lion was favourite for the Champion Stakes but after Cracksman missed the Arc I heard a whisper that Gosden would reroute the star 3YO colt here. The trainer seemed to talk away from that notion last week, indicating that both would go for the longer race, however the change to very testing ground probably means game over for Roaring Lion in the Champion Stakes.

The trouble with thinking about Roaring Lion for this race is that the trainer has said the horse doesn't like soft ground. Even if this is a shorter race, it won't help a horse who simply doesn't like the going. Vying for favourite now, Roaring Lion looks poor value to me at 7/2.

Addeybb looked ridiculously well handicapped when dotting up in the Lincoln off 99. I had done Mitchum Swagger ante-post for that race at 33/1 and could only look on as the Haggas horsed sluiced in on the soft ground and the game Lord Glitters ran another cracker to be second, while my pick had to settle for third. Addeybb looked the proverbial "Group horse in a handicap" and it wasn't long before he graduated to Group status with a convincing win from Stormy Antarctic in the Group 2 Bet365 Mile at Sandown.

Addeybb went to Newbury for the Lockinge and was fancied by plenty to land the Group 1. Going off second favourite he just never got into the race and finished mid division behind Rhododendron. The ground was quick that day and I assume he had a problem, as he has not run since that May contest. As a son of Pivotal, you would think he wants it soft and he's very unexposed for his age and he has a likeable strike rate.

Without Parole is not one for me here and Gosden feels 10F is likely to be his trip next season. For me the other 3YO's have a bit to prove and in addition I don't think Expert Eye will like it soft.

Conclusion:-

I have Lord Glitters at 14/1 and am hopeful, rather than confident. I can't advise him at as low as 5/1 in places. I was not impressed that they took him to Woodbine, that seems a money over prestige move that backfired.

Recoletos would have been a pick at the 8/1 he was when I was thinking about a bet but the late news excusing his poor Queen Anne effort means he's too short to play for me.

Roaring Lion seems best at the 10F he made his name at and if he hates soft I don't see the shorter trip changing that fact.

Laurens has had a tough season and it would not be a shock if this was one trip too many to the well.

Therefore, my selection this morning was ADDEYBB at 10/1.

The Haggas gelding was one of the easiest Lincoln winners you will see and arguably will hold Lord Glitters on the evidence of his next win in a Group 2. The poor effort in the Lockinge came on vastly different ground and it transpired that the horse was jarred up by the surface that day. William Haggas said Addeybb has been ready to run for six weeks now but just hasn't had the right ground for any of his potential targets. The stable are in form and went within a gnat's knacker of landing the Arc. For me, he looked the best value and I made him a 6/1 shot when considering all the factors, especially the ground.

Good luck if you are playing this race

 

Sound reasoning as usual

 

I forgot to say that Addeybb is also entered in the Champion Stakes and there has been a little bit of money for him there but William Haggas said that he prefers the mile race for Addeybb and it would be tough taking on Cracksman if he rediscovers the form he was in in last years Champion Stakes.

 

You are making Addeybb look a tasty bet. Must put that one in my Saturday League Comp

 

I am not sure why John Gosden is even contemplating running Roaring Lion in either the Champion Stakes or the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes as being the best three year old in either race will be no compensation for the simple fact that the horse does not perform on soft ground and there is little chance of it drying out by Saturday.

I can understand the motivation of the owners if they want to run their charge in the mile race as he has three big race wins over ten furlongs already but a victory over a mile would look good on his CV when they pack him off to stud. It is difficult to see any reason why they would keep him in training as the only other prize realistically available next year is the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Ascot as the ground for the Prix Ganay would almost certainly be soft.

It would be great to see Laurens win the QEII but would she have won the Matron if Alpha Centauri had not injured herself in the race? The Irish filly was clearly the best miler in training of either sex. Also, there has to be a question mark against the very soft ground as she has not encountered it previously.

Beat The Bank should go on the ground although he has not encountered it recently and has been beaten in every Group 1 he has contested. He was fifth in the Sussex with Lightning Spear, Expert Eye, Lord Glitters and Gustav Klimt in front. Lightning Spear has been beaten in this in the last two years on Soft and Good ground; and last won on going containing the word soft in a handicap in 2014. Expert Eye is still living on the promise of his juvenile victory in the Vintage Stakes and was behind Recoletos in the Moulin last time. Lord Glitters has won on this card before – last year’s Balmoral handicap – so the ground should be no worry but his third in the Sussex was probably a career best with his subsequent win a Group 3 suggesting more is needed here. Gustav Klimt’s only win this term was the 2000 Guineas Trial first time out on heavy ground and simply does not look good enough.

Recoletos is admirably consistent in France but his two trips to Ascot – well beaten in the Champion Stakes last year and the Queen Anne Stakes this year (behind Lord Glitters, Lightning Spear, Century Dream and Beat The Bank) – do not inspire confidence.

Century Dream has not won above Group 3 level but should be okay on the ground, his fourth in the Queen Anne a career best.

The Without Parole bubble has been well and truly burst. Last time he was an also-ran in the Moulin after unplaced efforts in the Juddmonte International and the Sussex Stakes. Irish 2000 Guineas winner Romanised has been well beaten twice since that victory, including the St James’s Palace here behind Without Parole and Gustav Klimt, and is not certain to like the very soft ground.

Addeybb started the season winning the Lincoln (Lord Glitters second giving 8lb) on heavy ground but was last seen flopping in the Lockinge when well fancied (Rhododendron and Lightning Spear in front). Clearly he goes well when fresh and handles the ground but he has little else going for him.

With just the five entered by Ballydoyle, it will probably be Thursday before it becomes apparent which ones will be taking their chance but none of them make much appeal although the three three-year-old fillies will get all the allowances.

 

The attitude of so many owners on the flat...we will retire them at 3 years old.. lol..whereas the jumps the general public are able to build up a rapport with the horses as they get turned out on a year by year basis...thank goodness we are only a week away before it all starts!. The flat is all about the wealthy sheikhs sadly.. showering all with their millions and millions of pounds and commandeering the sport. Bring on the grounded national hunt sphere...more for the people!

 

Bit harsh on Addeybb there Quartermoon.

It was very fast ground at Newbury and the horse was jarred up to the extent that he was out for an extended period. He has only had 8 career starts and Gustav Klimt, the 3YO has had 12 races.

Addeybb improved 10 lbs in winning the Lincoln and then another 8 lbs on his next start. He's got plenty going for him in my opinion, in a race where only Roaring Lion stands right out, with Recoletos also slightly ahead for now. The Racing Post had Addeybb running 21 lbs below his previous form when he ran in the Lockinge and clearly that was well below what he can do. He is 1 lb higher than Lord Glitters and had ten races less at a year younger than the O'Meara gelding.

Recoletos was only 4th in last years Champion Stakes but the trainer felt that was a Cracksman performance very few horses could have hoped to match and with the jocley riding Recoletos to try to go with Cracksman, he felt his horse could have been second with a less aggressive ride. At Royal Ascot Recoletos went into meltdown when the vet arrived with his syringe for a sample, as he has a needle phobia and always gets upset whe he knows what is coming. Maybe he won't prove himself here but he has had valid reasons, especially if we consider that he was reinvented as a miler this season. Since running at less than 10 F Recoletos has run to RPR's of 118, 119, 110, 122 and 120, with the 110 being the time he got into a fret over the injection.

Roaring Lion, Lord Glitters and Addeybb are the ones for money, with Recoletos, Laurens and almost everything else weak in the betting.

It's generally 5/1 Lord Glitters and 6/1 Addeybb now and who would have thought that after they were the first two home in the Lincoln?

 

While flat racing may be dominated by the ‘wealthy sheikhs’ and Coolmore, is jumps racing not also dominated by a handful of rich owners? We might not be able to name the actual winners of most of the championship races at Cheltenham yet but we could draw up a list of half a dozen owners or trainers and probably have most of them covered.

Ultimately jumps racing is uncompetitive as there are sufficient big prices that the big names can avoid each other all season and only meet for one week in March. If the scaremongers are right, this will be the last year the Irish can come because of Brexit; and Mullins and Elliott will have to carve up everything in Ireland between them as Nicky The Needle cleans up at Prestbury Park.

 

Difference of opinion makes horse races... I think this is probably one of the weakest renewals of the race I can remember. Looking at the current entry, there are only two in it that make the current International Classification and one of them is not guaranteed to run.

If they thought that the ground was too quick for their horse, they should not have run it. The fact that the horse has only raced eight times and has been gelded clearly indicates that it has had enough difficulties to put most off.

The fact that two horses that ran in the Lincoln are contesting the top mile race on Champions’ Day speaks volumes about this year’s three year olds. Alpha Centauri would be odds on if she were available.

Good luck with your wagers but with the state of the ground, I will just be watching.

 

The fact that it is such a weak race is why I homed in on the Handicappers at better value prices. In a normal year I would not have touched them.

I did Alpha Centauri in the 1000 Guineas before she ran in the Moyglare last season but she flopped in the soft and again on her return to action this season. I couldn't do her for the Irish Guineas but was on board at Royal Ascot. She was 9/2 for this race at one stage but I couldn't back her at that price with the likelihood of soft ground. Sadly we saw her end her season prematurely but I would not have backed her at odds-on on soft myself.

Playing on soft ground at this time of the season can be fraught with danger but no harm in a little on at bigger odds for an interest.

We'll get a better idea of the field tomorrow and with Laurens on the drift I wonder if she will stand her ground?

 

Anyone at Ascot Saturday??

 

The scaremongerers have no idea..nothing will change on that score...agree re the competitive quote by the way and the best beasts avoiding each other all season until Cheltenham

 

Fifteen stand their ground.

Roaring Lion goes here instead of the Champion Stakes, something the cynics were saying would happen the moment that Cracksman missed the Arc.

Everything else is on the drift, with the Gosden colt getting to be short enough now.

Recoletos is 6/1 and that seems a huge each-way price, as I feel he's a shoo in to make the frame. At 3/1 that wasn't a feasible option but at 6/1 I am struggling to see how he will fail to be in the 3, with ground to suit and the notion he is not an Ascot horse possibly misconceived on closer inspection.

Roaring Lion has had an excellent season but if you take away the win from Poet's Word, I don't think the two neck victories over Saxon Warrior stack up as a reason for having Roaring Lion one third of the odds available on Recoletos, especially as the son of Kittens Joy has yet to run on ground this soft.

Recoletos 6/1 looks HUGE.

 

Recoletos disappointed somewhat there. He went from travelling well to falling into a hole. Lord Glitters was also a but below his game. I think the trip to Woodbine on fast ground was a poor choice of preparation, a bad bit of planning in my opinion.

Addeybb never went with any fluency and ended up running 3 stone below his best form. Haggas felt he was ready to go but perhaps that bad race on firm ground at Newbury in the Lockinge has left a physical problem. He's got plenty to prove now.

Roaring Lion toughed it out from outsiders in a poor renewal. This looks a weak division right now and with the Sprint also looking poor quality and a Champion Stakes with only one Group 1 horse in the field it was another Champions Day that lacked quality.

It's the wrong time of year having it at the fag end of the season and it will never live up to the concept, because it is a flawed concept. Racing should stop trying to be like other sports and accept that it is what it is and will never be like Football, Formula 1 and other sports, You cannot force a format onto a sport unsuited by that format.

 

I know I’ve said this before but my main problem with the day is its dull and offensive race titles. ‘The Champion Stakes’ and ‘QEII’ (although I’m not sure why you would want to name a race after a ship) I will just about allow, on the grounds of them having a history, but the ‘Fillies and Mares’, ‘Sprint’ and ‘Long Distance Cup’ are about as dreary and tedious as you can get. And as for the ‘Belmoral Handicap’ PA-LA-EASE. Is it any wonder that it’s quickly been remonikered the ‘Immoral Handicap’?!? Given it’s the venue that the Royal’s go to, each summer, to slaughter the local wildlife, at the taxpayers expense, can anyone think of a more offensive, disgusting and odious race title?!? It really hackles me to my proletarian roots let me tell you, team

 

Nope, not as offensive. My proletarian roots weren't as hackled by this race title.

 

Ascot said the matter was "out of their hands"