At this early stage, what's your idea of the winner? I've backed two horses. Born To Sea - won on his debut at The Curragh in a listed race over 6 furlongs. On it's next run over 7 furlongs, he finished 2nd but was lame post race. Half brother to Sea The Stars, he should run a big race. Abtaal - French trained colt owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, was rather unlucky on his last run when he stumbled 1 furlong out in a Group 3 at Maisons Laffitte.
I've sort of narrowed it to 6 at the moment. Power, Nephrite, Wrote, Dragon Pulse, French Fifteen and Abtaal at the moment. I'm leaning towards Power at the moment to be honest.
Top Offer for me. Looked potentially Brilliant with a capital ‘B’ in winning his maiden at Newbury last August and hails from a very good Juddmonte family. Did nothing wrong in a gallop back at the Royal Berkshire racecourse, last week, and now heads to the Greenham next weekend and then, all being well, Newmarket at the beginning of May. Old boy Roger Charlton knows what to do when he gets a quality horse and in Top Offer he may have an animal that falls into that category.
MOST IMPROVED 5.1 on Betfair, almost fav. Fallon booked for it. Don't want to tempt fate but does anyone rate this bloke any more? It's been a long time since I've seen him really ride a stormer. I'd be giving yhe young lads a chance on good horses now. Also I think it is an utterly outrageous price for Most Improved. I don't care how much he has improved, there are some others bred to do much the same...
Most Improved has a similar profile to Delegator, who was also trained by Brian Meehan - both ran in the Dewhurst (Delegator was beaten in the 2008 Dewhurst, then won the 2009 Craven). I'll be prepared to lay Most Improved on the exchanges too. Born To Sea will go straight to the Guineas without a prep run. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0411/1224314604065.html
As of the Monday before the race we still have 26 horses officially engaged, although of course a very late supplement could surprise us all. Of the 26 still entered, these 9 will not have had a prep run, should the participate: Born To Sea (Jim Bolger) Camelot (Aiden O'Brien) Farraaj (Roger Varian) Fencing (John Gosden) Mandaean (Mahmood Al Zarooni) Parish Hall (Jim Bolger) Power (Aiden O'Brien) Saigon (James Toller) Top Offer (Roger Charlton) Absence of a recent run makes it very difficult to assess the chances of these 9 horses and yet the first 3 in the betting (Camelot, Born To Sea and Top Offer) will all be making their seasonal debut in the big race (if they run). We than have the Hannon colt Trumpet Major (8-1), who ran away with the Craven, followed by 2 French colts who have had a run this season - French Fifteen (won the G3 Prix Djebel) and Abtaal (who finished 2nd in the Djebel) around the 10/1 mark. There then follows 2 Irish horses, Parish Hall and Power, who were last seen first and second respectively in the Dewhurst, at around 12-1. At the moment it's 20-1 bar those. I must say I like my Guineas horse to have had a recent run prior to the race, otherwise you are forced to go on 2YO form and that so often does not read across to the 3YOs. Of those we have seen run so far this season I do really like French Fifteen, who reversed earlier running with Abtaal in no uncertain terms in the Djebel. For me he was value for much more than the neck verdict having drifted across to the rail and then not being touched in the last 50 yards by his clearly confident jockey. Any thought on the prep race issue? Is it better to have one? Does it not really matter? Does it influence your selection for the Guineas?
Will say it again ABTAAL will win the 2000 guineas. Said it before his prep run and I stand by it. The horse he was beaten by in his prep is a genuine group 1 horse. Abtaal stumbled and was given a very soft ride by Soumilon. He had previously smashed that horse and I expect a fully fit ABTAAL to collect on May 5th. Obviously Camelot could be a freak so I nominate him as the only horse I am scared of.
I hate to say this, but I am going to agree with RV, at present the horse he is putting forward is the likeliest winner for me.
RV I couldn't see the stumble of Abtaal in the Djebel - mind it was a crappy French cameraman I thought French Fifteen was very impressive - if he'd run straight and been ridden out he would have won 3 or 4 lengths Are they both likely to turn up at Newmarket or are they engaged in the French 2000?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgBAG_7zk7M Odddy its about 1.07 Soumilion looks behind as it happens to see if the horse behind struck in to him I think. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iCZHomuieI how impressive is that Abtaal defs runs at Newmarket - not sure about French Fifteen
You can never rule out the Urban Sea family, so Born to Sea is a bet for me. I'm also interested in the French horse HERMIVAL. He has a similar profile to MAKFI (same trainer, same sire), won his maiden, ran respectably in Prix Djebel and it has been reported in today's paper that Sheikh al Thani (who later purchased MAKFI) has bought a share in the horse. He is a best price 20/1 at the moment.
Seen it now mate, wouldn't read too much into it though. I still think French Fifteen won on merit - must've lost a bit of ground swerving across half the track.
I won't be getting heavily involved, but if forced for a selection I'd go with Born To Sea. John Oxx has an outstanding record when he sends horse's over to England, he's not like some trainers who just run them in the guineas for the sake of it, he would only run if he felt his horse was good enough, so it speaks volumes that he's still running despite a defeat LTO
They've said he's going for the Dante en route to the Derby. I assume he's been kept in in case it comes up bottomless but otherwise I don't think he's an intended runner. His two races so far have been over 9f and 10f which wouldn't be the typical profile of a Guineas winner.
I can't for the life of Me see Aidan O'Brien running Camelot, I think the Derby is his main aim and I think He's still having nightmares about ruining St Nicholas Abbey's 3 year old season. Im willing to give Power a chance at 12/1, He was only held in the Dewhurst given a brutal ride from Ryan Moore, Boxed in on the rail and quickened impressively only to be denied...
I'd always take a previous run over a seasonal debut, given that the horse had performed well. And you can't take anything away from Trumpet Major's Craven run. A nailed on ew shot, in my opinion, although at the current 10-1 it isn't going to add much to your retirement fund
