QEII Analysis

Hi everyone, I was at Ascot on Saturday, by no means an expert on horse racing, but definitely a very often casual gambler on the flats. I did a bit of analysis on the QEII race for learning purposes!!

Any help, thoughts and comments would be great to hear!

One thing I have definitely learnt from horse racing, is that its much more difficult when the ground is too soft. I backed Dawn Approach with some confidence, but Dawn Approach was apparently beaten by the ground……..

Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford said at Ascot: "The ground worked against him, which blunted his turn of foot”

However, in his form, he has won twice on Yielding ground as a 2year old. Won 3 times on Good/Soft as a 2 year old. (The clerk of the course said the straight mile at Ascot was almost Good/Soft on Saturday). Does it make that much difference from 2 years and 3 years old?

Maybe it does. Dawn Approach raced on the following as a 3 year old. GF/G/G/GS/G*/S……The only time he raced on Good/Soft he was beaten at Goodwood by Toronado, when he looked not quite the same horse as he did in winning the St James Palace. So maybe that was the pointer I missed?

*5th in this race we can discount, due to the horse scoping badly afterwards and obviously the Derby was too far.

Of course, the trainer Jim Bolger, gave us nothing about the ground conditions, only reporting Dawn Approach to be 100% ready, as opposed to Richard Hannon, the trainer of Olympic Glory, who was a soft ground horse we were all told and form to prove it, coming off the back of a 2nd on soft ground at Longchamp coming from the back to finish strongly.

But, Olympic Glory was beaten by 5L by Maxios in the Prix Du Moulin, their previous race together. Maxios is another confirmed soft ground horse. Upon watching a replay of the Prix Du Moulin(I should’ve watched it before!) this type of race can be discounted I believe for the following reason.

• The pacemaker went off very fast, Maxios followed him and the rest stayed well back.
• Maxios carried on the pace and eventually probably just outstayed all the other horses, who all left it way too late to get going, probably expecting Maxios to come back to them.
• This theory holds weight when you look at the previous races of Maxios in that year.
• 10F/11F/9F/10F/8F(on soft). In his previous season, he raced only between 10-12F. He’s a Monsun colt. It all points to a better stayer than miler, which explains, why he won over a mile. Strong pace on soft, he outstayed them all.
• It doesn’t however explain, why he wasn’t ridden in the same way, and right up with Burwaz on Saturday? Any ideas anyone?
• It does explain why he lost though.

Looking at the previous distance race form, got me onto looking at the other horses in the top 5.

2nd - Top Notch Tonto (supplemented, due to a listed and grp3 win, and a soft ground horse)
Previous Races that year
7 x 8F
1 x 7F
1 x 10F

Verdict
A true miler. In good form, last two races, and soft ground lover.

3rd - Kingsbarns
Previous Races that year
Disastrous comeback from injury in previous race over 10F

Verdict
Trainer clearly thought, there was something still there for this Racing Post Trophy(8F) winner on Soft ground as 2year old.

5th – Elusive Kate
Previous Races that year
5 x 8F

Verdict
A true miler. Form better at start of the year and tailed off last 2 races. Won on Soft this year,

Of the rest, Gregorian(6th) only raced 3/7 over a mile, Gordon Lord Byron only 1/9 over a mile, Soft Falling Rain only raced on fast ground, and the other two were pace makers.


Overall Verdict
• Needed to pick a horse that’s a true miler
• Previous end of season form important
• Confirmed Soft Ground Performer

Olympic Glory was a clear pick @ 11/2 based on all that. What a great opportunity missed. Easy to say now obviously, but something to remember for next season perhaps?

 

Cheers derbyjester. Hindsight is a good thing and can be very educational. When I have had the time to study the form after the result (having not selected the winner) it has either left me realising that I didn't do my homework thoroughly enough, or it has left me wondering wtf, how could I have ever picked that. The former is educational from a form reading viewpoint. The latter can be educational in selecting which races to avoid but this is not so clear cut and can sometimes bring out the cynical side of me which will deem the race a fiddle

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Interesting post derbyjester. I can't help feeling with Dawn Approach that he's just stopped improving. He won the first 2yo race of the 2012 season and he improved handsomely as a 2yo. He was probably the fittest horse on 2000G day and won like a really good animal but since then has never looked as untouchable even if his top rated performance might be the St James Palace. He was an earlier type than most and maybe he's just reached his eventual level. For a sire really helpful that he was such an early type.
There is also the fact that they may have gone to the well a few times too often.

 

I think the biggest clue to explain his lack of dominance later on is the 2000 Guineas.

Toronado was 4th that day when rapidly falling backwards, breathing issues that we have also seen at York, meaning that Dawn Approach's 5 length victory was not one where be beat down top class animals. Glory Awaits was 2nd remember. Cristoforo Colombo even managed 6th! (a regressive 3 Y O)

So when people saw Toronado close the gap at Ascot and Goodwood, people said Dawn was in decline. However these are wo animals that readily beat Declaration of War in 3rd.

I think the Derby run was a huge error as be pulled fiercely and it was much to his credit that he won at Royal Ascot. I do think he was better on good ground and I would add to that by saying I wouldnt take much Champions Day form seriously this season.

He was a very good miler who could have been spared the odd race but he was never dominant, despite the visually impressive nature of hias Guineas win. Been great for the sport this season.

 

I hope you enjoyed your Saturday even if most of the results were not very punter friendly.

1. Olympic Glory 11/2
2. Top Notch Tonto 14/1
3. Kingsbarns 14/1
Dist: 3.25L, 0.75L Time: 1:44.18

This is bound to prove unpopular because of the die-hard Dawn Approach fan club on here. This has been the season of the excuse for the top mile candidates. When Dawn Approach won the Guineas, the excuses were made for Toronado. Dawn Approach then made a pointless trip to Epsom undoubtedly at the behest of Sheikh Mohammed rather than Jim Bolger. Afterwards at Ascot, Dawn Approach just scrambled home from Toronado as the latter suffered more obstruction than the former. At Goodwood, Toronado took his revenge, suggesting that both horses were evenly matched. Since then the excuse machines have been in overdrive. I cannot accept the excuses made for the QEII as Toronado did not run because of the soft ground (fair enough – no excuse needed) whilst the obstinate connections of Dawn Approach let their horse get stuck in the mud. Myself, I think that this probably demonstrates that these are just two good milers, which appears to be borne out by their ratings.

Olympic Glory has shown a couple of pieces of reasonable form this season in defeat but was clearly the horse most suited to the conditions in the QEII. His previous Group 1 success had been in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère on heavy ground at Longchamp, culminating a two-year-old career that had seen him second to Dawn Approach at Ascot. On his most recent outing he had been slammed by Maxios in the Prix Du Moulin after Frankie Dettori had allowed Stephane Pasquier to steal a big lead early in the straight. Five of the eight entered in the Moulin were owned by the Al Thani family and they still could not win it.

Maxios was well beaten on his previous trip to Ascot and the pacemakers probably went too hard on the ground in the QEII so he did not lay up. Whilst Maxios is by Monsun, that does not necessarily make him a middle distance colt although he has been campaigned mostly at around ten furlongs perhaps because his half-brother Bago won the Arc in 2004.

Top Notch Tonto is the sort of horse that all small owners dream of having and congratulations to them for paying to add their horse to the field and being rewarded; however, his proximity suggests that he has improved nearly a stone between races or that the bare result is not that good. It will be interesting to see what he achieves next term – maybe I am doing him a disservice and he has been a Group 1 horse running is lesser races all season.

I expect to see Kingsbarns next year as he has no miles on the clock and hype to justify. If he does not produce the goods expect him to be packed off to stud like Camelot with platitudes from Ballydoyle. As Camelot had two Classic wins to his name that was not too hard a sell.

I had no expectations for Elusive Kate as she has never beaten the boys at the highest level; and Gordon Lord Byron is a seven furlong horse/sprinter.

 

To be fair to dear Katie, she has beaten quite a few boys; just not enough to win the race. She's had 7 G1 races this year, ranging from GF to Soft, and her last 12 races have all been G1s. She's a tough, consistent and very likeable filly but, as you say QM, just not good enough to beat the the top colts.

 

Dawn Approach appears to have regressed from Royal Ascot. That is all

 

I think there must have been an element of persuasion Oddy. I remember JB stating very firmly that DA would not stay 12f.

 

We will have to agree to disagree, Oddy. Sheikh Mohammed has the controlling share of the ownership and I think he will have got his way even if Jim Bolger did not like it. In twenty years time when we are reading his autobiography we will probably find that money buys the casting vote and the horse was racing in the Godolphin colours. I wonder if they can make it more amusing that Fergie and Keane!